I note there is a H&S on the 5min SPX and we're testing the neckline now. Target 1013 if neckline fails. On the 15 min we have a rounding top which has a neckline at 1020. Target would be 1007. I also note that the 3 etf's I follow that depict internal market strength for the SPX (XLY, XLF,SMH) are all down close to 1%. Maybe points to a sell off into the close for the long weekend?

Holding ETF's long term imo is a waste of valuable capital. There appears to be time decay in all the ones I have held since Oct 09. I subscribe to BAM and have held a number of ETF's they recommended since Oct 09 and can categorically state that whilst the indexes the etf's track are trading a lot lower than when I purchased these etf's (SPX 1095ish) the actual etf's have in most cases failed to trade anywhere near the prices achieved in the Feb low of 2010 even though the SPX has traded 34 points lower to date. I have had to double up on a number of them which is a no no just to get my break even price down to current levels. FXP is a good example. China's market are trading at Apr 09 levels whilst FXP is 30% lower than the Feb spike low. SRS, FAZ, EDZ, QID, RWM and SSG are just as bad.  Even SPXU which traded at $40 in Oct 09 has only just achieved that price today even though the SPX traded 80 odd points lower.

The neckline at $24.80/90 needs to hold otherwise has a target $1 lower. Too early ($24.74) to call a definite break.

Wondering why the NDX is so weak and noted that AAPL has formed a M pattern or double top at $265. A break and close below $231 neckline gives a potential target of $200ish which is the May 6th crash low.  One to watch

TA terms from memory is that a flag cannot retrace more than 50% of the pole which means any move below 1071 negates the bull flag.  Looks to be a rounding top forming. A break below 1063 gives a target 1050ish. The only good news I see so far for the bulls is that we do not appear to be impulsing down (so far). JPY is rallying against euro/gbp so somethings going on in Europe.

Market Divergences - Dow and S&P have both closed on a weekly basis below their weekly Feb closing lows. RUT, NDX and DJT are well above those Feb lows. As it stands you would have to say we have bullish divergences but a close on a weekly basis below the below levels would be a bear market confirmation.

RUT - 580 (Currently 633)

NDX - 1741 (Currently 1832)

DJT - 3822 (Currently 4157)

Just a pointer on how much of a rip off these ETF's are. Have a look at XLF, FAS and FAZ. FAS has closed below it's Feb weekly low where as XLF is just above. FAZ on the other hand is $4 from its corresponding high. That's 20% lower. Anotherwords you are better off shorting XLF and FAS than you are of buying FAZ if you are bearish financials.

I think it is a certainty that McHugh will get his first Hindenburg Omen tonight which puts the market on a crash footing. I think he needs two for confirmation.

JPY is a carry trade currency so bad for the currencies on the other end. I.E AUD etc. AUD down 400 pips this week against USD and down 650 pips against JPY. It is starting to look real bad for markets if the carry trade unwind too fast. Hello 2008 AUD dropped from 97 to 60 back then!

DOW 10680 target if we form the rs and break the neckline. A close below 10973 confirms the bearish move. Note the neckline was formed by two evening star / bearish engulfing patterns. Strong trends require at least two reversal patterns to reverse a trend. The fact that the rs is higher than the left indicates trend strength and should we trend any higher the H&S pattern would be negated. We have bullish mutual fund Monday next so the pattern could be nullified soon. What are the chances of two down Monday's in a row?

There are 3 rating agencies. If 2 downgrade to junk then major ripples through financial markets. If 3 downgrade then Greece can no longer use collateral with ECB, bond holders will lose 50-70c in the dollar due to the need to renegotiate debt and the possibility of debt default and if that occurs that causes a tsunami.

Spain unemployment rose 2% to 20.5%. I suspect they're in a lot of strife also!

Interesting Indicator.

http://www.iamgv.com/gv/2010/04/volume-indicator.html

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-miners-drag-european-shares-to-losses-2010-04-27

Reason for the big sell off maybe??? USD over 82.2 now and a break above 82.5 gives an initial target of 83.5 which is W pattern target. Euro just holding above 1.32.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-hit-hard-by-sp-downgrade-of-greece-2010-04-27

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-cuts-portugals-sovereign-ratings-to-a-a-2-2010-04-27-114570

Read somewhere that today the contracts roll over so they were expecting strength. After today the expectations are for pm's to trend lower to a cycle bottom in June/July.

This could be significant especially with your congressional elections coming up in November as most members and wannabe members of congress are aware that the average person is disgusted with financial institutions greed and the fact that the govt bailed them out so that they could carry on their lust for greed unabated. Now you have the Wall Street reform bill making its way through the senate which would essentially end the "too big to fail" mentality. I think congress will be trying to hit some home runs in the lead up to the November elections.

Greek 10yr bonds hit a new record high yesterday! That is ultra bearish Euro. Portugal bonds starting to spike up as well. Euro has the largest short position ever recorded. A drop below 132 is ultra bearish and USD seems to want to breakout.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2010/04/sovereign_debt_3

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/04/26/uh-oh-portugal-spreads-widening/

People trade using ratio's and are quite profitable. I dare say there are ratio traders out there with that target for their trades. Throw in the resistance levels from price and fibs and you have a formidable resistance area around 750.

Interesting bond chart showing spread between Greece and German bonds.

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-greeces-2-year-vs-10-year-yields-2010-4

Bad news for us bears as it appears the RUT and COMPQ are breaking upwards out of triangles.

Targets for RUT is 750ish which corresponds with previous resistance and 78.6% fib retracement.

Target for COMPQ is 2560ish which corresponds with previous resistance and 78.6% fib retracement.

The old rule of thumb is once the 78.6 fibs fall then you can expect a retracement of the entire move!

Worth watching the You Tube interview especially if you're an aussie or Canadian. I couldn't agree more with what he say's. Houses in Aust are selling for 8x medium earnings and keep rising on a housing shortage created by a Chinese commodities boom resulting in the govt increasing immigration by 40% in 2009 to combat the skilled labour shortages.

http://www.creditwritedowns.com/2010/04/marc-faber-symptoms-of-a-bubble-building-in-china.html