Can you re-visit that count where we are in C wave?
Sectors are still out of whack here... REITS are on day 5 of
rally after only 5 days down; qqqq just now getting some life, but
looks like a weak bear flag. Tempted to get back into SRS at
these levels.
nothing has changed with the charts, the 38% Fib on the SPX is
about 1106 and so far it's still following my projection.
This whole move could be wave A (with minor abcs). we'll
see. 144 stochastics made it to over 80% like I said it
should. Now does it pullback in a B like this or form
something more complex, who knows. since there is no negative
divergence, I think a pullback will get bought and we push up
again. If this is a counter trend move higher, I expect it to take
maybe 3 - 5 days to play out, it's not even 2 full days yet.
on the 60 min chart, you can see that 60 period stochastics
crossed up from below 20%,
usually that's a pretty good signal
rkelman - it all depends upon your personal trading style and
risk tolerance. For example, some probably sold today because
the market has run up quite fast and is overbought on the intraday
charts while others may hold out for higher prices. A
potential near term target would be the 50 day MA just above.
A short term support zone that needs to remain intact for
immediate higher prices is 1095 and really should remain around
1100 as I've now shown on the 5 minute chart above.
Steve...since we can generally say that wave B's normally will
retrace between 50-78.6%, why are you looking at .30-.382 for short
term support? Is there something I am missing here? Is there some
reasoning I am of which I am unaware??? or is that just needed to
hold to see this wave A continue higher???
Because I don't see this (a) wave completed as yet so for the 5
minute count to play out as labeled the SPX needs to remain above
1095 (really should stay around 1100). Once wave (a) ends
then look for the retracement you mention of 50-78.6% to occur in
three waves. If the market reverses and impulses down once
this advance completes then the rally would be over. I favor
that this is (a) to be followed by (b) and (c) but the market will
likely fool us all in some manner. Bottom line is that I
view this advance as corrective at this time and only a break to
new highs will alter my thinking. The market has yet to test
the 200 day MA which is rising and may be around the KEY support at
1030 at the time the SPX starts down again and that will be a
critical area should this play out. Sorry for the confusion.
I'm a little confused by some contradictory statements about
wave b. You say that wave b might retrace 50-78%. You
also say (and this is where I'm confused) that it "should stay
above 1100". This doesn't make sense.... that means that we
have to rally to 1128 right now? That's a pretty big rally
and doesn't seem corrective to me anymore.
Kalinm - Look at my SPX 5 minute chart which shows that I'm
referring to Wave (a) still going up to the target that it should
not go below 1095-1100 area as counted. I was not referring
to wave (b) in regards to that price area. Wave (b) can
certainly go below that area. Understand? Sorry for the
confusion.
Are we still in A wave of ii?
Posted by kalinm on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 01:43 pm
Steve,
Can you re-visit that count where we are in C wave? Sectors are still out of whack here... REITS are on day 5 of rally after only 5 days down; qqqq just now getting some life, but looks like a weak bear flag. Tempted to get back into SRS at these levels.
nothing has changed with the
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 02:28 pm
nothing has changed with the charts, the 38% Fib on the SPX is about 1106 and so far it's still following my projection. This whole move could be wave A (with minor abcs). we'll see. 144 stochastics made it to over 80% like I said it should. Now does it pullback in a B like this or form something more complex, who knows. since there is no negative divergence, I think a pullback will get bought and we push up again. If this is a counter trend move higher, I expect it to take maybe 3 - 5 days to play out, it's not even 2 full days yet.
on the 60 min chart, you can see that 60 period stochastics crossed up from below 20%, usually that's a pretty good signal
I had the Fibs in
Posted by matt on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 02:39 pm
I had the Fibs in the wrong place on the 15 min chart, I adjusted it
SPX 15 (One possible Count)
Posted by steve on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 02:24 pm
Responding to Kalinm below.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p90793448537&a=190493429&listNum=61
steve would one be out
Posted by rkelman on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 07:20 pm
steve would one be out if the spx closed below 1090 or do you want to see the stoch and macd turn also?
rkelman - it all depends
Posted by steve on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 08:18 pm
rkelman - it all depends upon your personal trading style and risk tolerance. For example, some probably sold today because the market has run up quite fast and is overbought on the intraday charts while others may hold out for higher prices. A potential near term target would be the 50 day MA just above. A short term support zone that needs to remain intact for immediate higher prices is 1095 and really should remain around 1100 as I've now shown on the 5 minute chart above.
short term support 1092-95???
Posted by perthx on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 09:30 pm
Steve...since we can generally say that wave B's normally will retrace between 50-78.6%, why are you looking at .30-.382 for short term support? Is there something I am missing here? Is there some reasoning I am of which I am unaware??? or is that just needed to hold to see this wave A continue higher???
Because I don't see this
Posted by steve on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 11:08 pm
Because I don't see this (a) wave completed as yet so for the 5 minute count to play out as labeled the SPX needs to remain above 1095 (really should stay around 1100). Once wave (a) ends then look for the retracement you mention of 50-78.6% to occur in three waves. If the market reverses and impulses down once this advance completes then the rally would be over. I favor that this is (a) to be followed by (b) and (c) but the market will likely fool us all in some manner. Bottom line is that I view this advance as corrective at this time and only a break to new highs will alter my thinking. The market has yet to test the 200 day MA which is rising and may be around the KEY support at 1030 at the time the SPX starts down again and that will be a critical area should this play out. Sorry for the confusion.
wave b retrace....
Posted by kalinm on 3rd of Feb 2010 at 01:11 am
I'm a little confused by some contradictory statements about wave b. You say that wave b might retrace 50-78%. You also say (and this is where I'm confused) that it "should stay above 1100". This doesn't make sense.... that means that we have to rally to 1128 right now? That's a pretty big rally and doesn't seem corrective to me anymore.
Kalinm - Look at my
Posted by steve on 3rd of Feb 2010 at 08:29 am
Kalinm - Look at my SPX 5 minute chart which shows that I'm referring to Wave (a) still going up to the target that it should not go below 1095-1100 area as counted. I was not referring to wave (b) in regards to that price area. Wave (b) can certainly go below that area. Understand? Sorry for the confusion.
we're in the tube...!
Posted by macnsc on 2nd of Feb 2010 at 02:18 pm