I don't understand about not getting in? The short was
1130 or the broken uptrend line a few points higher, that was
easypeasy, was mentioned about 100 times.
And even today, the SPX broke the 1115 support in the morning
that you see on the 30 min chart, then retested it, which was
another great shorting opportunity (broken support because
resistance).
Again if this is the start of some major leg down, there is
plenty of time for people to short who didn't. Use 60 min
charts for entries; when you are in a strong trend, just using
stochastics on a 60 min chart is useful - last year during the
uptrend, when stochastics become oversold on a 60 min basis, that
provided long entries, especially when the much slower 60 period
stochastics become oversold. The same will happen during a
major downtrend, use stochastics on 60 min charts to re enter
shorts etc.
Matt I added to my TZA shorts at 8.77 which was a timely
entry so yes I got short by going long the short fund at
support(I am 100% bear so I am well and truly short
except I love MNTA(but sold now)!) but frankly
the nature of this fall is such that people were not expecting this
kind of drop IMO.I do not believe a large % of people went short on
each of these breaks....They were waiting for a better entry IMO
thinking we r oversold and will rally back to a better spot
and then we had drop after drop....even Steve or yourself
below mentions something about the nature of the
decline and giving back all the gains from Oct 15th or the like in
3 days or so.A slow grind up and then a waterfall sell off..the
average punter I do not believe was expecting this as each time in
the past he got screwed by shorting the dips!This reminds me of
March in reverse .As I said I am short but I think many aren't
because they were expecting more time to get a better entry when
and IF the decline started.Maybe you are right and all BPT
members have many shorts but I would bet against that
probability.3 months to get here and 3 days to give it back..no way
were people positioned for this well IMHO.
Newsletter
Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!
I don't understand about not
$SPX...
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 07:29 pm
I don't understand about not getting in? The short was 1130 or the broken uptrend line a few points higher, that was easypeasy, was mentioned about 100 times.
And even today, the SPX broke the 1115 support in the morning that you see on the 30 min chart, then retested it, which was another great shorting opportunity (broken support because resistance).
Again if this is the start of some major leg down, there is plenty of time for people to short who didn't. Use 60 min charts for entries; when you are in a strong trend, just using stochastics on a 60 min chart is useful - last year during the uptrend, when stochastics become oversold on a 60 min basis, that provided long entries, especially when the much slower 60 period stochastics become oversold. The same will happen during a major downtrend, use stochastics on 60 min charts to re enter shorts etc.
Watch This Video
Great Video Matt!
Posted by sporopat on 23rd of Jan 2010 at 09:57 am
That was extremely helpful! Thanks!
Title: I am a bear
Posted by hurricanemalta on 22nd of Jan 2010 at 08:08 pm
Matt I added to my TZA shorts at 8.77 which was a timely entry so yes I got short by going long the short fund at support(I am 100% bear so I am well and truly short except I love MNTA(but sold now)!) but frankly the nature of this fall is such that people were not expecting this kind of drop IMO.I do not believe a large % of people went short on each of these breaks....They were waiting for a better entry IMO thinking we r oversold and will rally back to a better spot and then we had drop after drop....even Steve or yourself below mentions something about the nature of the decline and giving back all the gains from Oct 15th or the like in 3 days or so.A slow grind up and then a waterfall sell off..the average punter I do not believe was expecting this as each time in the past he got screwed by shorting the dips!This reminds me of March in reverse .As I said I am short but I think many aren't because they were expecting more time to get a better entry when and IF the decline started.Maybe you are right and all BPT members have many shorts but I would bet against that probability.3 months to get here and 3 days to give it back..no way were people positioned for this well IMHO.