I was wondering if I could get some input on URE. I have
some long term LEAP's hoping to play the natural deterioration in
the price as well as what I thought was a no brainer that real
estate was not heading up any time soon. Here it sits at a
new 52 week high. I don't get it. I still have time for
the position to play out but it sure doesn't make sense to
me. TIA
Posted by spotswood on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 07:16 pm
Some others made some comments about URE. I've been a bit
confused the past few days as I've seen 2 fib support levels on
srs, and today URE had resistance at 7.05... and just kept on
going, low volume, top of the bolliger, and I thought I saw
divergence. It appears one should continue to wait for slo
stocastic to roll over, macd to roll over before attempting a
discretionary. I lost some money, but today I'm missing
whatever it was that was obvious that I should not have taken a
short at 7.05.
Posted by jcomptonod on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 01:05 pm
Without getting too carried away. the overall pattern appears
similar to the market as a whole, so the general idea for me is if
the market continues on up so probably will URE and we'd all like
to know the answer to what the market is going to do. The
current pattern, whether you call it a little H&S or cup and
handle - from October until now meaures up another 1 1/2 points or
so. Looks to me like it still has some room to run if the
market holds up..
The downsides are that are that it is a little overbought (but
with the slow stochastics above 80 it could also trend for a
while). It didn't break out on very good volume (so the
breakout appears suspect) but it still is at a new high. It's also
at the top of it's Bollinger Band.
Posted by hurricanemalta on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 12:44 pm
You are not the only one who thought it was a no
brainer....however clearly it needs some kind of reverse psychology
in order to understand it.Stay away!...RTH ..the retail holders etf
seems same deal to me.You'd think the consumer is buried in debt
and banks not lending so who has the money or access to it to
shop(relative to the past)so RTH is a good short idea you'd
think.Plenty of people got that wrong too!.. these 2 sectors
killed the shorts and the lesson is to go long them and
you'll make money!
I tried shorting IYR too and failed. That is the ETF for
commercial R.E., which is recovering along with the rest of the
economy. You have a telescope view of reality if you are insisting
it should go down :-)
The pattern measures a couple of points higher from here.
real estate, what is selling is all the depressed stuff,
foreclosures, short sales, etc. I don't see it as a true
recovery.
and for real estate just look at history. There have bee
many bubbles in Real Estate going back the last 100 years. I
used to have a chart of this, I'll try to dig it up and post it
here, but what you see on the chart is that after a bubble in Real
Estate bursts, it typically flat-lines for 5 - 7 years before it
really starts to recover. So to me, it's not enough time, any
bounce in real estate is a dead cat bounce i.e. throw a dead cat do
the ground hard enough and it will bounce a little bit.
Matt, I agree about the residential real estate. IYR and SRS
refer to the commercial real estate, which recovered a bit owing to
injections from the government and lowered prices. It generally
drops about 2 years after a beginning of a recession. Roger Wiegand
projects a huge drop in commercial real estate in the second
quarter of next year after the subsidy funds (the life support) are
weaned out.
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URE
Posted by 1carnut on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 12:24 pm
I was wondering if I could get some input on URE. I have some long term LEAP's hoping to play the natural deterioration in the price as well as what I thought was a no brainer that real estate was not heading up any time soon. Here it sits at a new 52 week high. I don't get it. I still have time for the position to play out but it sure doesn't make sense to me. TIA
SRS URE
Posted by spotswood on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 01:24 pm
Matt,
Can you add to any comments on ure and srs?
what is your question on
Posted by matt on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 02:20 pm
what is your question on SRS, URE?
ure
Posted by spotswood on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 07:16 pm
Some others made some comments about URE. I've been a bit confused the past few days as I've seen 2 fib support levels on srs, and today URE had resistance at 7.05... and just kept on going, low volume, top of the bolliger, and I thought I saw divergence. It appears one should continue to wait for slo stocastic to roll over, macd to roll over before attempting a discretionary. I lost some money, but today I'm missing whatever it was that was obvious that I should not have taken a short at 7.05.
If you are discetionary trading
Posted by matt on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 07:39 pm
If you are discetionary trading SRS, it is something you guys are doing on your own because I have not discussed any trades for SRS/URE etc
otherwise I'm not sure what trade setup you guys are referring too?
Without getting too carried away.
Posted by jcomptonod on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 01:05 pm
Without getting too carried away. the overall pattern appears similar to the market as a whole, so the general idea for me is if the market continues on up so probably will URE and we'd all like to know the answer to what the market is going to do. The current pattern, whether you call it a little H&S or cup and handle - from October until now meaures up another 1 1/2 points or so. Looks to me like it still has some room to run if the market holds up..
The downsides are that are that it is a little overbought (but with the slow stochastics above 80 it could also trend for a while). It didn't break out on very good volume (so the breakout appears suspect) but it still is at a new high. It's also at the top of it's Bollinger Band.
URE
No brainer??
Posted by hurricanemalta on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 12:44 pm
You are not the only one who thought it was a no brainer....however clearly it needs some kind of reverse psychology in order to understand it.Stay away!...RTH ..the retail holders etf seems same deal to me.You'd think the consumer is buried in debt and banks not lending so who has the money or access to it to shop(relative to the past)so RTH is a good short idea you'd think.Plenty of people got that wrong too!.. these 2 sectors killed the shorts and the lesson is to go long them and you'll make money!
$RLX
Posted by schnellinvestor on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 03:01 pm
Retail stocks are usually strong from January to March or even April.
It just seems like such an obvious short, but it doesn't seem to work.
Will this year be the same?
I tried shorting IYR too
Posted by junkie on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 01:22 pm
I tried shorting IYR too and failed. That is the ETF for commercial R.E., which is recovering along with the rest of the economy. You have a telescope view of reality if you are insisting it should go down :-)
The pattern measures a couple of points higher from here.
real estate, what is selling
Posted by matt on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 02:25 pm
real estate, what is selling is all the depressed stuff, foreclosures, short sales, etc. I don't see it as a true recovery.
and for real estate just look at history. There have bee many bubbles in Real Estate going back the last 100 years. I used to have a chart of this, I'll try to dig it up and post it here, but what you see on the chart is that after a bubble in Real Estate bursts, it typically flat-lines for 5 - 7 years before it really starts to recover. So to me, it's not enough time, any bounce in real estate is a dead cat bounce i.e. throw a dead cat do the ground hard enough and it will bounce a little bit.
Matt, I agree about the
Posted by junkie on 23rd of Dec 2009 at 02:44 pm
Matt, I agree about the residential real estate. IYR and SRS refer to the commercial real estate, which recovered a bit owing to injections from the government and lowered prices. It generally drops about 2 years after a beginning of a recession. Roger Wiegand projects a huge drop in commercial real estate in the second quarter of next year after the subsidy funds (the life support) are weaned out.