Before someone else tears into you, let me clarify what I've
observed. I'll do it in bullet point since I'm lazy:
(1) Matt and Steve have been warning about these various red
flags for weeks, if not months. They talk about it CONSTANTLY.
(2) Matt and Steve also CONSTANTLY say that the trend is up, and
so people shouldn't just be positioning themselves short just
because they think that the market can't go higher, or because the
market looks weak.
The two aren't mutually exclusive, which is probably where your
confusion comes from. Yes, this move was bound to happen
sometime, and yes it would be foolish for most traders to have been
positioned heavily short just because the markets were
looking tired. So that means many (if not most) wise traders
and trend followers missed out on Friday's gap down. So
what's a person to do? Well, like Matt and Steve also talk about a
lot, you wait until the reversal is in the rearview mirror and then
you position short on low volume rallies, etc. Trying to short when
the market is uptrending isn't too bright (unless
you're fast and experienced) because you're generally wrong 6 ot
7 times and then right on the 8th. I'd rather position myself
long and be right 7 times and be wrong on the 8th. I hope this
is clear.
I just wanted to add is that moments like this are why, in my
opinion, we need to have a section in the Premium Contents where
Matt and Steve indicate their view of the long-term and
intermediate terms. It can be very simple, something like
"Bullish," "Neutral," or "Bearish." Such a section would give
members a clear, simple, and unambiguous summary of Matt and
Steve's sense of where the market is going.
Matt & Steve could do that, but I think a good pair of
moving averages on an index can do that just as well. If your 20
dma is pointing down, then the short-term trend is down. But if the
50 dma is up, then the longer-term trend is up. Since the April-May
period, the 50 dma has been up the whole time, while the 20 dma has
only been down for 2 weeks back in July. Otherwise it's been up the
whole time too. That's pretty good trend predicting in my
book!
Posted by gabebristow on 29th of Nov 2009 at 10:15 am
If there was a 15 min, hourly, daily section with their thoughts
on direction of the spx per say. With green or red arrows
possibly. Or I guess I could just draw some trend lines on my
charts and do it myself. Oh yeah, learn to fish instead of
going to Safeway and buying it.. Food for thought, good
trading next week all
Every letter writer I have ever listened to talks out both sides
of their mouth...then they can go back and selectively say I told
you so....doesnt mean they're not competent, just that they want to
play both sides of the street...fact of the matter is, they dont
know which way the market is going...would be nice to hear them
say, hey, we just missed it...I can accept that....nobody's
perfect...
knaub, theyre just tryin to sell something...I take it with a
grain of salt, recognize it for what it is....BTW, I'll be
continuing my subscription because I want to hear what all of you
have to say, not just Matt and Steve.
Posted by blockbuster on 29th of Nov 2009 at 03:53 pm
Steve and Matt,
thanks for your commitment to provide and improve upon your
already extensive market analysis. Your methodology has kept
subscribers in the intermediate trend. Less clear is your
methodology for when at what prices stocks are triggered and
stopped out. Eg. Jnpr: 26 stp, you closed out at 25. NANO: Closed
out out 13. It gapped down that day. AEZC: Down 50% overnight.
Should have triggered. Left of list next day. CIT: Gap down. Price
from previous night used. If you want to establish credibility and
spread the word about your excellent work, it may be helpful to
offer clearer parameters. Oh, I am not a bitter short or long.
Please do not take this with anything but a desire to help make the
most of this community and your considerable skills.
It seems as though you have had a problem with letter
writers in the past. No one Knows for sure the direction of the
market but can often give you clues . Hopefully you learn to read
and heed the clues as I have. An e.g. was SLV that I was short on
Wed. close via puts. Sold 50% of them on opening Friday a.m.The
puts were up to .69 via a close at .40 on Wed. Enjoy the day and
listen to the clues.
You have to also remember that the market does not follow logic
and predictability to the day. If I had followed my gut
instinct months ago, I would have shorted and lost much more money
than one day where it gapped the wrong direction on Friday.
Also, one day does not make a reversal or a trend, so either follow
your strategy for trading to the tee here or wait on the sidelines
until a trend develops.
Geesh, some of you guys are unbelievable......Matt/Steve have
clearly stated what they expect and it is just sour grapes if you
didn't listen......I've been trying to short this market for a few
weeks and didn't listen to Matt/Steve........Had I listened I would
have been in a better position but like someone posted earlier I
may finally be right with my short positions.....or not.....I am
learning to take smaller and smaller positions as opposed to going
all in with one trades......spreads out risk for a swing trade
imo......cheers all.
It's still too early to make any definitive conclusions about
the market. Over the past 7 days the primary indexes have
experienced two markedly bearish sell offs BUT they managed to
recover and have yet to break down. The one thing that I've
stated recently is that the risk reward near these levels is not
something that I find attractive for swing longs (I have cited many
reasons including some above). However, that does not mean the
market cannot probe higher. As traders return to their desks
next week, we will see how they react to last weeks developments.
For now, I suggest we keep an open mind and focus on trading
the best setups.
The dollar is weak again tonight which is helping to lift the
futures higher - this has been pattern lately on Sunday
Evenings.
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Before someone else tears into
Your statement
Posted by user32 on 28th of Nov 2009 at 11:33 pm
Before someone else tears into you, let me clarify what I've observed. I'll do it in bullet point since I'm lazy:
(1) Matt and Steve have been warning about these various red flags for weeks, if not months. They talk about it CONSTANTLY.
(2) Matt and Steve also CONSTANTLY say that the trend is up, and so people shouldn't just be positioning themselves short just because they think that the market can't go higher, or because the market looks weak.
The two aren't mutually exclusive, which is probably where your confusion comes from. Yes, this move was bound to happen sometime, and yes it would be foolish for most traders to have been positioned heavily short just because the markets were looking tired. So that means many (if not most) wise traders and trend followers missed out on Friday's gap down. So what's a person to do? Well, like Matt and Steve also talk about a lot, you wait until the reversal is in the rearview mirror and then you position short on low volume rallies, etc. Trying to short when the market is uptrending isn't too bright (unless you're fast and experienced) because you're generally wrong 6 ot 7 times and then right on the 8th. I'd rather position myself long and be right 7 times and be wrong on the 8th. I hope this is clear.
I agree with user32. I
Posted by algyros on 29th of Nov 2009 at 08:10 am
I agree with user32.
I just wanted to add is that moments like this are why, in my opinion, we need to have a section in the Premium Contents where Matt and Steve indicate their view of the long-term and intermediate terms. It can be very simple, something like "Bullish," "Neutral," or "Bearish." Such a section would give members a clear, simple, and unambiguous summary of Matt and Steve's sense of where the market is going.
Matt & Steve could do
Posted by user32 on 29th of Nov 2009 at 11:49 pm
Matt & Steve could do that, but I think a good pair of moving averages on an index can do that just as well. If your 20 dma is pointing down, then the short-term trend is down. But if the 50 dma is up, then the longer-term trend is up. Since the April-May period, the 50 dma has been up the whole time, while the 20 dma has only been down for 2 weeks back in July. Otherwise it's been up the whole time too. That's pretty good trend predicting in my book!
Good idea. There is a lot
Posted by knaub on 29th of Nov 2009 at 09:23 pm
Good idea.
There is a lot of talking and chart summations each night; One would have
to be as smart as Matt and Steve to understand it all.
I would like that premium add on too
Posted by gabebristow on 29th of Nov 2009 at 10:15 am
If there was a 15 min, hourly, daily section with their thoughts on direction of the spx per say. With green or red arrows possibly. Or I guess I could just draw some trend lines on my charts and do it myself. Oh yeah, learn to fish instead of going to Safeway and buying it.. Food for thought, good trading next week all
Direction
Posted by carlb on 28th of Nov 2009 at 11:57 pm
Every letter writer I have ever listened to talks out both sides of their mouth...then they can go back and selectively say I told you so....doesnt mean they're not competent, just that they want to play both sides of the street...fact of the matter is, they dont know which way the market is going...would be nice to hear them say, hey, we just missed it...I can accept that....nobody's perfect...
knaub, theyre just tryin to sell something...I take it with a grain of salt, recognize it for what it is....BTW, I'll be continuing my subscription because I want to hear what all of you have to say, not just Matt and Steve.
RE: The Watch List
Posted by blockbuster on 29th of Nov 2009 at 03:53 pm
Steve and Matt,
thanks for your commitment to provide and improve upon your already extensive market analysis. Your methodology has kept subscribers in the intermediate trend. Less clear is your methodology for when at what prices stocks are triggered and stopped out. Eg. Jnpr: 26 stp, you closed out at 25. NANO: Closed out out 13. It gapped down that day. AEZC: Down 50% overnight. Should have triggered. Left of list next day. CIT: Gap down. Price from previous night used. If you want to establish credibility and spread the word about your excellent work, it may be helpful to offer clearer parameters. Oh, I am not a bitter short or long. Please do not take this with anything but a desire to help make the most of this community and your considerable skills.
Direction
Posted by rbreese on 29th of Nov 2009 at 09:01 am
It seems as though you have had a problem with letter writers in the past. No one Knows for sure the direction of the market but can often give you clues . Hopefully you learn to read and heed the clues as I have. An e.g. was SLV that I was short on Wed. close via puts. Sold 50% of them on opening Friday a.m.The puts were up to .69 via a close at .40 on Wed. Enjoy the day and listen to the clues.
You have to also remember
Posted by jacob on 29th of Nov 2009 at 12:21 am
You have to also remember that the market does not follow logic and predictability to the day. If I had followed my gut instinct months ago, I would have shorted and lost much more money than one day where it gapped the wrong direction on Friday. Also, one day does not make a reversal or a trend, so either follow your strategy for trading to the tee here or wait on the sidelines until a trend develops.
Jacob
Geesh, some of you guys
Posted by bullau on 29th of Nov 2009 at 01:31 pm
Geesh, some of you guys are unbelievable......Matt/Steve have clearly stated what they expect and it is just sour grapes if you didn't listen......I've been trying to short this market for a few weeks and didn't listen to Matt/Steve........Had I listened I would have been in a better position but like someone posted earlier I may finally be right with my short positions.....or not.....I am learning to take smaller and smaller positions as opposed to going all in with one trades......spreads out risk for a swing trade imo......cheers all.
Can't wait for the weekend report.
Quick Comments
Posted by steve on 29th of Nov 2009 at 01:41 pm
It's still too early to make any definitive conclusions about the market. Over the past 7 days the primary indexes have experienced two markedly bearish sell offs BUT they managed to recover and have yet to break down. The one thing that I've stated recently is that the risk reward near these levels is not something that I find attractive for swing longs (I have cited many reasons including some above). However, that does not mean the market cannot probe higher. As traders return to their desks next week, we will see how they react to last weeks developments. For now, I suggest we keep an open mind and focus on trading the best setups.
The dollar is weak again tonight which is helping to lift the futures higher - this has been pattern lately on Sunday Evenings.