Here's an explanation that might help a bit. Trading the markets is hardly ever about predicting which way it's going to go tomorrow. Probabilities and possibilities are the best you're ever going to get, simply because no one knows for sure. And if you're trying to trade based on predictions, then you might want to rethink things. (As Steve always says, wave counts, etc. are roadmaps and guidelines.) So how do people make money on a regular basis if they don't know the market's direction? It's simple - they make low risk, high reward trades in the direction of the market.

Here's an example. Let's say a stock moves down to the bottom of a rising channel and stops at the lower trendline. You buy, and set a 3% stop loss underneath your position (below the trendline, and perhaps below a key moving average). Then you set a 12% profit target near the upper trendline. You're risking about 3%, but giving yourself a potential gain of about 12%. So which scenario will play out, up or down? With these odds, it wouldn't matter if you had only a 50% chance of your trade working out (which is about the best I can muster even when all indicators and short-term moving averages are heading in the right direction). You'd still be making money on the balance of your trades if most of them looked as good as this, especially if you managed to cover yourself with a stop on the initial move up.

So trade low risk, high reward trades in the direction of the market and you should be fine. And what's the market's direction? In the short-term, it's where your 20 and 50 day moving averages are pointed (up or down). Dips to or below these MAs are often short-term buying opportunities, and is often when you see stocks hitting trendlines and intraday charts getting oversold.

I hope this helps.