Posted by fisheggs on 24th of Sep 2009 at 12:39 pm
Hi,
I'm new here and have really been enjoying the daily
newsletters and have been learning LOTS.
I have a question for those who are full members on the
mechanical trading system in the premium content section. I wanted
to find out who is using these and what is your success rate? From
the newsletter the other night, Matt was quoting an annual retrn of
some 500%. Is this claim justified in end users experiences?
Matt/Steve, thank you for your daily insight into T/A. I will
probably end up staying JUST for that!
Posted by gabebristow on 24th of Sep 2009 at 01:47 pm
If you trade the systems with a mechanical device you will have
nearly exact returns. If you trade manually, you will not
have the same returns, but good ones nonetheless
That's true results based on past history, if you traded the
system for the last year, you would have about 800% return. We
first introduced some mech systems back in October of last last
year and we have been trading them since that time. However
the recent system is a new one, so obviously we haven't traded it
that since July 2007, but that is the return of the system.
Now going forward it will either continue to work or it won't, it's
that simple.
yes the claim is justified, that is if you had taken every
trade, etc. Again, going forward who knows, but for now we'll
play the system.
The longest system we've had is the original 15 min SRS system,
which has been whipsawing lately, but it has great returns from Oct
2008 - July 2009 the whole time we traded it, over 400%.
Now did everyone take all
the trades all the time? Probably not, I didn't
either. But who cares, the systems are objective and a
good tool. We analyze them every week going forward and will
play them until they no longer work, which could be a year, or a
week, who knows.
There are NO guarantees for future performance, systems can
stop working at any time
Basically, you can't trade a
system from the beginning because logically you need past data to
come up with the system in the first place. Therefore you are
basically hoping that it will continue working in the future, but
you can analyze the system as you trade it. Now if I only
show statistics of systems from the time I release them, there
would be nothing to show, and why would anyone be compelled to
trade them?
The systems do best when the VIX and
volatility is high, so if bear market comes back, I think the
system returns could go way up.
Matt, So when you optimize a system could you just tell us where
the optimization period ended? It's OK for it to be whenever you
want it to be -- it's just that we should be able to know when the
trading history and equity curve started trading "for real" and it
would be ideal if that info was noted for all the systems on that
page. Pretty standard info in looking at systems IMO.
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Breakpoint trades Mechanical systems opinions please
Posted by fisheggs on 24th of Sep 2009 at 12:39 pm
Hi,
I'm new here and have really been enjoying the daily newsletters and have been learning LOTS.
I have a question for those who are full members on the mechanical trading system in the premium content section. I wanted to find out who is using these and what is your success rate? From the newsletter the other night, Matt was quoting an annual retrn of some 500%. Is this claim justified in end users experiences?
Matt/Steve, thank you for your daily insight into T/A. I will probably end up staying JUST for that!
system
Posted by gabebristow on 24th of Sep 2009 at 01:47 pm
If you trade the systems with a mechanical device you will have nearly exact returns. If you trade manually, you will not have the same returns, but good ones nonetheless
That's true results based on
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2009 at 12:48 pm
That's true results based on past history, if you traded the system for the last year, you would have about 800% return. We first introduced some mech systems back in October of last last year and we have been trading them since that time. However the recent system is a new one, so obviously we haven't traded it that since July 2007, but that is the return of the system. Now going forward it will either continue to work or it won't, it's that simple.
yes the claim is justified, that is if you had taken every trade, etc. Again, going forward who knows, but for now we'll play the system.
The longest system we've had is the original 15 min SRS system, which has been whipsawing lately, but it has great returns from Oct 2008 - July 2009 the whole time we traded it, over 400%. Now did everyone take all the trades all the time? Probably not, I didn't either. But who cares, the systems are objective and a good tool. We analyze them every week going forward and will play them until they no longer work, which could be a year, or a week, who knows. There are NO guarantees for future performance, systems can stop working at any time
Basically, you can't trade a system
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2009 at 01:16 pm
Matt, re: systems
Posted by bkout3 on 24th of Sep 2009 at 02:02 pm
Matt, So when you optimize a system could you just tell us where the optimization period ended? It's OK for it to be whenever you want it to be -- it's just that we should be able to know when the trading history and equity curve started trading "for real" and it would be ideal if that info was noted for all the systems on that page. Pretty standard info in looking at systems IMO.