On the daily, shouldn't there be negative divergence on the MACD
before we get a trend reversal? ( I know you're not saying you're
expecting a trend reversal, this is just a question I have for
future knowledge). thank you!
we talked about that in the updates, that there is no negative
divergence on the weekly charts and quite a few of the daily
charts. That's why we've been counting the larger move as
intermediate wave A of primary wave B. Then you would get an
intermediate B wave pullback, then an intermediate wave C up to
complete the zig-zag pattern for primary wave B, possibly at 1050 -
1120. However, this is not set in stone and while tops
generally for with negative divergence, they don't always do that,
so we'll see.
Also some food for thought, a lot of analysts are expecting it
to unfold this way (zig zag pattern), everyone is looking for the
pullback and to buy the pullback expecting another rally and move
up to complete the zig zag; so there is chance it won't happen that
way. The US Dollar is important, if it truely has put in a
5th wave bottom, then that could be a reason for the market to top
out much earlier than everyone expects, as it would screw the
majority of bulls (who expect higher prices) and bears who expect
lower prices eventually but are looking for another up move after a
ullback
Posted by mamaduck on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:27 pm
Matt, Food for thought section makes a lot of sense... Also if I
remember correctly, we are either in or coming up to the 1/3 timing
window from Mid August to mid September which will go well with
this.
On the other hand, if we are going to correct and make higher
highs, then would the timing window be pushed to 50%?
Normally, you would expect to see negative divergence on the
MACD and/or RSI prior to a large trend reversal BUT that isn't
always the case. Further, you could get a substantial
pullback allowing for the osciallators to unwind before making
another push higher creating the divergence (I have shown some
examples of this in prior updates).
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MACD divergence
Posted by slater0 on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:03 pm
Matt/Steve,
On the daily, shouldn't there be negative divergence on the MACD before we get a trend reversal? ( I know you're not saying you're expecting a trend reversal, this is just a question I have for future knowledge). thank you!
http://www.screencast.com/users/slater0/folders/Jing/media/384a9b7a-3037-4b72-94f3-718519b9e089
(link shows rally from July lows; no divergence yet).
we talked about that in
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:18 pm
we talked about that in the updates, that there is no negative divergence on the weekly charts and quite a few of the daily charts. That's why we've been counting the larger move as intermediate wave A of primary wave B. Then you would get an intermediate B wave pullback, then an intermediate wave C up to complete the zig-zag pattern for primary wave B, possibly at 1050 - 1120. However, this is not set in stone and while tops generally for with negative divergence, they don't always do that, so we'll see.
Also some food for thought, a lot of analysts are expecting it to unfold this way (zig zag pattern), everyone is looking for the pullback and to buy the pullback expecting another rally and move up to complete the zig zag; so there is chance it won't happen that way. The US Dollar is important, if it truely has put in a 5th wave bottom, then that could be a reason for the market to top out much earlier than everyone expects, as it would screw the majority of bulls (who expect higher prices) and bears who expect lower prices eventually but are looking for another up move after a ullback
Back to the Future for the US Dollar: Is it March 2009 for the Greenback?
Posted by simon_says on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:45 pm
TA from BullBear supporting that very possibility of USD breaking out very soon-
http://tradingstock.ning.com/profiles/blogs/back-to-the-future-for-the-us
Food for thought
Posted by mamaduck on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:27 pm
Matt, Food for thought section makes a lot of sense... Also if I remember correctly, we are either in or coming up to the 1/3 timing window from Mid August to mid September which will go well with this.
On the other hand, if we are going to correct and make higher highs, then would the timing window be pushed to 50%?
Normally, you would expect to
Posted by steve on 11th of Aug 2009 at 12:09 pm
Normally, you would expect to see negative divergence on the MACD and/or RSI prior to a large trend reversal BUT that isn't always the case. Further, you could get a substantial pullback allowing for the osciallators to unwind before making another push higher creating the divergence (I have shown some examples of this in prior updates).