What's holding the CME REITS up? I believe its simple.
Everyone knows the real issue involves the concern over
ability to roll over debt. I believe "the market" thinks that
if push comes to shove, the Feds will come in and somehow provide
support.
Will they? I think probably not, but its certainly a
possibility.
Also, corporate bonds continue to do well. Some of these
REITS that certainly could not have rolled debt a couple of months
ago will probably be able to if the recent (3month) trends
continues.
Personally, I don't think its all going to be OK. But
things have improved every month since March.
Posted by rgoodwin on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:52 pm
Well, we've already committed/obligated 23.7 TRILLION for bail
outs to this point. When the commercial market tanks - what's
another 24 T - I mean come on - you 've got that buried in your
backyard don't you? Doesn't psychology/history have something to
say about everyone feeling so exhuberant - at exactly the wrong
time? Matt and Steve's 1000 - 1100 will play out and maybe even a
little more. No body will be expecting what happens next....
I suspect one of the Government bodies might go belly up....FDIC
or
With growth and inflation coming back with the recovery
talk.....when the yields spike up too high....the only way to crash
the stock market to scare money back into bonds will be to allow
those liquidity govt programs to expire.
Posted by dylan398 on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:36 pm
they also changed the accounting rules...I believe they don't
have to "mark to market" either.....letting them hold on. I was a
backer of this idea, but now I believe it will only prolong the
situation. But, It makes it a difficult short..in the intermediate
term...
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Commercial Real Estate
SRS implications (RealMoney article)
Posted by kurzweg on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:34 pm
What's holding the CME REITS up? I believe its simple. Everyone knows the real issue involves the concern over ability to roll over debt. I believe "the market" thinks that if push comes to shove, the Feds will come in and somehow provide support.
Will they? I think probably not, but its certainly a possibility.
Also, corporate bonds continue to do well. Some of these REITS that certainly could not have rolled debt a couple of months ago will probably be able to if the recent (3month) trends continues.
Personally, I don't think its all going to be OK. But things have improved every month since March.
Commercial RE
Posted by rgoodwin on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:52 pm
Well, we've already committed/obligated 23.7 TRILLION for bail outs to this point. When the commercial market tanks - what's another 24 T - I mean come on - you 've got that buried in your backyard don't you? Doesn't psychology/history have something to say about everyone feeling so exhuberant - at exactly the wrong time? Matt and Steve's 1000 - 1100 will play out and maybe even a little more. No body will be expecting what happens next....
I suspect one of the
Posted by siewyin on 21st of Jul 2009 at 04:03 pm
I suspect one of the Government bodies might go belly up....FDIC or
With growth and inflation coming back with the recovery talk.....when the yields spike up too high....the only way to crash the stock market to scare money back into bonds will be to allow those liquidity govt programs to expire.
my 2 cents
they also changed the accounting
Posted by dylan398 on 21st of Jul 2009 at 03:36 pm
they also changed the accounting rules...I believe they don't have to "mark to market" either.....letting them hold on. I was a backer of this idea, but now I believe it will only prolong the situation. But, It makes it a difficult short..in the intermediate term...