The answer to your question is YES - EW analysis does trump
since it gives us a guideline as to the RULES of wave counts.
The fact that this recent rally exceeded the previous rally (in
number of points) AND took out swing highs greatly increases the
odds that a significant low is in place. (see me chart and
comments from earlier this morning). The prevailing H & S
pattern on the SPX is still the daily inverse head and shoulders
that measures up to around 1050 ish. The market is dynamic
and subject to change at anytime but I also provided the technical
reasons for supporting the move as well as the factors that remain
in question. There are ALWAYS two sides to the market - pick
your side according to your trading objectives and play it based
upon your own triggers.
Posted by fkarlson on 16th of Jul 2009 at 01:28 pm
Thank you for your replies, Steve. This blog is very interactive
and for that matter educational and I do appreciate that--far
superior to experiences I have had in the past with other advisory
services.
You mentioned that the inverse H & S with the target at
1000+ is still operational. Would this be true if there were no
right shoulder? or do you see something else that is sufficient for
this? I am unclear on this point. I tend to be a swing trader and
so I do weigh all possibilities.
At any rate, your prior answer seemed to say that you regard EW
as bearing more weight than a possible H & S pattern.
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The answer to your question
SPX chart from jtverr on blog
Posted by steve on 16th of Jul 2009 at 12:08 pm
The answer to your question is YES - EW analysis does trump since it gives us a guideline as to the RULES of wave counts. The fact that this recent rally exceeded the previous rally (in number of points) AND took out swing highs greatly increases the odds that a significant low is in place. (see me chart and comments from earlier this morning). The prevailing H & S pattern on the SPX is still the daily inverse head and shoulders that measures up to around 1050 ish. The market is dynamic and subject to change at anytime but I also provided the technical reasons for supporting the move as well as the factors that remain in question. There are ALWAYS two sides to the market - pick your side according to your trading objectives and play it based upon your own triggers.
Thank you for your replies,
Posted by fkarlson on 16th of Jul 2009 at 01:28 pm
Thank you for your replies, Steve. This blog is very interactive and for that matter educational and I do appreciate that--far superior to experiences I have had in the past with other advisory services.
You mentioned that the inverse H & S with the target at 1000+ is still operational. Would this be true if there were no right shoulder? or do you see something else that is sufficient for this? I am unclear on this point. I tend to be a swing trader and so I do weigh all possibilities.
At any rate, your prior answer seemed to say that you regard EW as bearing more weight than a possible H & S pattern.