Posted by daddyturtle on 12th of Jul 2009 at 06:30 pm
Buy and hold DOES work better for most, IF you're in a bull
market.
Basically, most people, such as myself, don't have the abilities
or the time (day jobs) to day trade, let alone swing trade. I
still believe for most people, buy and hold DOES work and is safer,
but of course only during a bull market. Of course
these wall street brokerages aren't going to admit a bear market,
that buy and hold is wrong, or that we should have been
transferring into the gold bull market in 2001. It would cut
into their profits. Just like real estate agents always say
it's a great time to buy.
but that's the thing about buy and hold -- hold until
WHEN? Holding only during a bull market isn't buy and hold --
its trend following, which is trading, just on a longer
time-frame. Unless you consider yourself a trader, not a
buy-and-hold investor, and are ready to take profits at the end of
the bull market, you'll hold right into the next bear market and
lose money..................Anyone following buy and hold for the
past ten years has lost money. How can that have worked
better for anyone? Depending on how you choose your
time spans, bonds have outperformed stocks again and again over the
past 35 years. Buy and hold is literally a myth.
yes, in a bull market, buy and hold is best for most people with
jobs. But it depends if you are in a secular or cyclical bull
market. We had a secular bull market from 1982 - 2000, buy and hold
was the best during that time. However from 1966 - 1982 we
had a secular bear market where the Dow went from a high of 1000
and was 800 in 1982, so it went no where for 16 years, and those
were strong inflation years! Buy and hold did not work
then. we are in another secular bear market.
I'll post some charts on my next post
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Buy and hold DOES work
The familiar Nightmare
Posted by daddyturtle on 12th of Jul 2009 at 06:30 pm
Buy and hold DOES work better for most, IF you're in a bull market.
Basically, most people, such as myself, don't have the abilities or the time (day jobs) to day trade, let alone swing trade. I still believe for most people, buy and hold DOES work and is safer, but of course only during a bull market. Of course these wall street brokerages aren't going to admit a bear market, that buy and hold is wrong, or that we should have been transferring into the gold bull market in 2001. It would cut into their profits. Just like real estate agents always say it's a great time to buy.
but that's the thing about
Posted by Michael on 12th of Jul 2009 at 08:14 pm
but that's the thing about buy and hold -- hold until WHEN? Holding only during a bull market isn't buy and hold -- its trend following, which is trading, just on a longer time-frame. Unless you consider yourself a trader, not a buy-and-hold investor, and are ready to take profits at the end of the bull market, you'll hold right into the next bear market and lose money..................Anyone following buy and hold for the past ten years has lost money. How can that have worked better for anyone? Depending on how you choose your time spans, bonds have outperformed stocks again and again over the past 35 years. Buy and hold is literally a myth.
Yes, see my Sticky post
Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2009 at 08:26 pm
Yes, see my Sticky post as well as my last post, I discuss this in detail
yes, in a bull market,
Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2009 at 07:43 pm
yes, in a bull market, buy and hold is best for most people with jobs. But it depends if you are in a secular or cyclical bull market. We had a secular bull market from 1982 - 2000, buy and hold was the best during that time. However from 1966 - 1982 we had a secular bear market where the Dow went from a high of 1000 and was 800 in 1982, so it went no where for 16 years, and those were strong inflation years! Buy and hold did not work then. we are in another secular bear market.
I'll post some charts on my next post