Oil has dropped below $60. Would wait to see how far
the Market sales off over next couple weeks before re-entering long
Oil? Would Oil being at $50-$55 dollar area be a good entry
Long?
cspirit- regarding crude oil, I'll look at it more on the weekend,
but here's a 30 min chart of USO, note the positive divergence and
60 period stochastics. I'd be on the lookout for a Long
trade, especially if that 60 period stochastics gets over
20%. However it might need some more time to consolidate
first.
Shouldnt one look at $wtic to enter a uso trade rather than a
USO chart. Dont know how to post a stockcharts chart, but $wtic has
support @ 55, while USO is at support now, USO sucks to trade with
oil outside of a 1-2 day time frame, loses about 3% a month due to
future contracts, which are about $1.5 to $2 more each month out.
Once or IF futures contracts are ever less than current contracts
on $WTIC, then that will be a time to pounce and hold USO,
otherwise it is hard to play oil longer term.
Probably best way to play oil longer term is oil stocks, for
example, look at the comp of PBR and USO, as long as future
contracts are higher in value, USO will lose money monthly, not a
long or even month term hold.
A side note I forgot is USL if you dont want to or cant get into
futures, Im sure Matt has mentioned it, (only on the blog a few
days, and all I see is USO), but it covers a 12 month span of
futures contracts, better for long term trading of oil. USO barely
met its previous high, while USL covered it by about 12-15%. I am
only acting like an expert on USO because I already got burned.
Bought @ 45 when oil was breaking 55, eventually got rid of it when
oil was @ 62, but USO was @ 35. My fault for not understanding the
etf. Nut look at USL, returned to the same or close price, not 20%
+ less, I took a bath for my own ignorance, should have been a
member then, would have probably been warned by the masters.
depends on what type of trader you are, and of course nothing
wrong with taking something off the table and keeping some on with
a wide stop if you want to swing trade it. I'm not taking it
off the watch list for example. if you are real short term
then you take profits quickly etc. define your time frame and
risk tolerance. On the watch list, I try to give things lots
of room, but you might not want to give them that much room etc
Thanks ... If I trade Oil I will do it via DXO. I like how
it trades with Oil. DXO is near uptrend support line.
Feb. 1.75 low
March 2.52 Low
Current today Low 3.44.
Chart signals do not look great year on daily's however on my
chart on DXO it look be in Longer term Wave 4 pullback and could
push higher to Wave 5 above $ 4.80.
Posted by rgoodwin on 10th of Jul 2009 at 11:18 am
Likely a good topic for the weekend newsletter.
Matt - maybe you should add a section where we could put in our
requests for discussion in the newsletters which make sense for the
longer more detailed weekend ones. When potential set ups appear to
be a distance off, doesn't make sense to try and do them during the
week - JMO and not saying folks should not be asking - just a
thought on how to streamline these requests so you can track
them.
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Oil -Matt
Posted by cspirit on 10th of Jul 2009 at 11:10 am
Matt,
Oil has dropped below $60. Would wait to see how far the Market sales off over next couple weeks before re-entering long Oil? Would Oil being at $50-$55 dollar area be a good entry Long?
Thanks
cspirit - regarding crude oil, I'll
Posted by matt on 10th of Jul 2009 at 12:21 pm
cspirit - regarding crude oil, I'll look at it more on the weekend, but here's a 30 min chart of USO, note the positive divergence and 60 period stochastics. I'd be on the lookout for a Long trade, especially if that 60 period stochastics gets over 20%. However it might need some more time to consolidate first.
USO 30 min dynamic chart
$wtic
Posted by arissaj on 11th of Jul 2009 at 01:15 am
Shouldnt one look at $wtic to enter a uso trade rather than a USO chart. Dont know how to post a stockcharts chart, but $wtic has support @ 55, while USO is at support now, USO sucks to trade with oil outside of a 1-2 day time frame, loses about 3% a month due to future contracts, which are about $1.5 to $2 more each month out. Once or IF futures contracts are ever less than current contracts on $WTIC, then that will be a time to pounce and hold USO, otherwise it is hard to play oil longer term.
Try for $WTIC chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$wtic&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60598385059
Probably best way to play oil longer term is oil stocks, for example, look at the comp of PBR and USO, as long as future contracts are higher in value, USO will lose money monthly, not a long or even month term hold.
USL
Posted by arissaj on 11th of Jul 2009 at 01:41 am
A side note I forgot is USL if you dont want to or cant get into futures, Im sure Matt has mentioned it, (only on the blog a few days, and all I see is USO), but it covers a 12 month span of futures contracts, better for long term trading of oil. USO barely met its previous high, while USL covered it by about 12-15%. I am only acting like an expert on USO because I already got burned. Bought @ 45 when oil was breaking 55, eventually got rid of it when oil was @ 62, but USO was @ 35. My fault for not understanding the etf. Nut look at USL, returned to the same or close price, not 20% + less, I took a bath for my own ignorance, should have been a member then, would have probably been warned by the masters.
Oil / ERY - matt
Posted by mamaduck on 10th of Jul 2009 at 12:52 pm
matt - does this mean it is time to exit the second half of ERY?
depends on what type of
Posted by matt on 10th of Jul 2009 at 01:06 pm
depends on what type of trader you are, and of course nothing wrong with taking something off the table and keeping some on with a wide stop if you want to swing trade it. I'm not taking it off the watch list for example. if you are real short term then you take profits quickly etc. define your time frame and risk tolerance. On the watch list, I try to give things lots of room, but you might not want to give them that much room etc
Matt, Thanks ... If I trade
Posted by cspirit on 10th of Jul 2009 at 12:37 pm
Matt,
Thanks ... If I trade Oil I will do it via DXO. I like how it trades with Oil. DXO is near uptrend support line.
Feb. 1.75 low
March 2.52 Low
Current today Low 3.44.
Chart signals do not look great year on daily's however on my chart on DXO it look be in Longer term Wave 4 pullback and could push higher to Wave 5 above $ 4.80.
Does this look correct?
Likely a good topic for
Posted by rgoodwin on 10th of Jul 2009 at 11:18 am
Likely a good topic for the weekend newsletter.
Matt - maybe you should add a section where we could put in our requests for discussion in the newsletters which make sense for the longer more detailed weekend ones. When potential set ups appear to be a distance off, doesn't make sense to try and do them during the week - JMO and not saying folks should not be asking - just a thought on how to streamline these requests so you can track them.