estelleoc- because months ago I said many times that when the market
bottoms, that the rally would be strong enough that it would fool
the masses into believing that this is a new bull market. The
market is doing exactly what I said it would do. The SPX
hasn't even retraced 38% of the move down from 2007, it has onlly
retraced 21.7, that's all the way up at SPX 1000. I've stated
clearly that my targets are SPX 1000 - 1100. The market is
doing what I said it would do, why would I change my analysis
now?
A new bull market will begin when the SPX goes back over the 20
month MA, at best it might rally back to it but then I think it
will reverse back down off of it, that's my target, since the 20
month MA is falling, it will probably meet up with it at the 1000 -
1100 area or the 38% or 50% Fibs.
Bear markets unfold in ABC patterns. We've had wave A
down, this is wave B up.
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:03 pm
Matt,
Do you still think there's a shot for the market to
correct to 820? Or can this A Wave take the SPX straight to 1000
with these minor pullbacks of about 20 pts? I totally agree
with your analysis I'm just shocked at how every minor pullback is
immediately bought. In my opinion a multi-day pullback would be
healthy, but it doesn't seem that this may happen. I know when
everyone starts to think it wont happen it normally does, but this
is still pretty remarkable.
Everyone and every chart I see has a pullback coming ... The
question is from what levels does A complete and the B pullback
happen. One option still open is that we Tech.
haven't completed Wave 5 up in A. Most charts I see have SPX
875-900 as end levels for A. That is a fair target
should SPX 863 ress not hold and we go higher. It's
tricky right now but that's why it is.
Dont let the feeling of missing this rally suck you in. I had 2
calls from friends wanting to buy banks which tell me the market is
doing its job of sucking people in. I guess the best way to explain
it is to date the market daily......and dont marry it......
I have no doubt that those fib levels posted will be met on the
pull back.
The intermediate trend will be up for the next couple months,
let's not worry about a new bull market until we get up to those
levels, it's useless to talk about that now. Shorts are for short
term trades only, and Longs are the primary trades and will be for
some time. Play the trend.
how can you be so
SDS 60 min chart
Posted by estelleoc on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:33 pm
how can you be so sure its not the start of the bull market?
estelleoc - because months ago I
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:53 pm
estelleoc - because months ago I said many times that when the market bottoms, that the rally would be strong enough that it would fool the masses into believing that this is a new bull market. The market is doing exactly what I said it would do. The SPX hasn't even retraced 38% of the move down from 2007, it has onlly retraced 21.7, that's all the way up at SPX 1000. I've stated clearly that my targets are SPX 1000 - 1100. The market is doing what I said it would do, why would I change my analysis now?
A new bull market will begin when the SPX goes back over the 20 month MA, at best it might rally back to it but then I think it will reverse back down off of it, that's my target, since the 20 month MA is falling, it will probably meet up with it at the 1000 - 1100 area or the 38% or 50% Fibs.
Bear markets unfold in ABC patterns. We've had wave A down, this is wave B up.
Matt, Do you still think there's
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:03 pm
Matt,
Do you still think there's a shot for the market to correct to 820? Or can this A Wave take the SPX straight to 1000 with these minor pullbacks of about 20 pts? I totally agree with your analysis I'm just shocked at how every minor pullback is immediately bought. In my opinion a multi-day pullback would be healthy, but it doesn't seem that this may happen. I know when everyone starts to think it wont happen it normally does, but this is still pretty remarkable.
Everyone and every chart I
Posted by cspirit on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:56 pm
Everyone and every chart I see has a pullback coming ... The question is from what levels does A complete and the B pullback happen. One option still open is that we Tech. haven't completed Wave 5 up in A. Most charts I see have SPX 875-900 as end levels for A. That is a fair target should SPX 863 ress not hold and we go higher. It's tricky right now but that's why it is.
stay thru to the charts...they
Posted by siewyin on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:31 pm
stay thru to the charts...they tell the story.
Dont let the feeling of missing this rally suck you in. I had 2 calls from friends wanting to buy banks which tell me the market is doing its job of sucking people in. I guess the best way to explain it is to date the market daily......and dont marry it......
I have no doubt that those fib levels posted will be met on the pull back.
The intermediate trend will be
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 06:14 pm
The intermediate trend will be up for the next couple months, let's not worry about a new bull market until we get up to those levels, it's useless to talk about that now. Shorts are for short term trades only, and Longs are the primary trades and will be for some time. Play the trend.
ABC bear
Posted by philr on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:57 pm
Matt,
Where do you see ABC during the bear market from 2001 to 2003? I don't see it.