Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:09 pm
This market is quite impressive. From my experience trading the
market typically does not allow such an easy trade to last. Buying
dips on tech or financials is almost guaranteed money. I just
wonder when this easy money will end. Buy programs seem to be at
every support level now. This market is trading like a bull market
right now. Negative news is a non-event and positive or lukewarm
news results in explosive moves higher. Has anyone ever seen
anything like this before? I've only been trading a few years so
this is the first time I've witnesses a bear market.
Yep, this is typical after the market was down strongly for a
1.5 years, the first rally is strong and hard and people don't
believe it, thus it continues to move higher to suck everyone in.
When everyone is finally convienced that the market is in a new
bull market, then it will trap the masses. Anway the market
was down for 1.5 years (primary wave), therefore primary wave B
counter trend rally should last 3 - 6 months
estelleoc- because months ago I said many times that when the market
bottoms, that the rally would be strong enough that it would fool
the masses into believing that this is a new bull market. The
market is doing exactly what I said it would do. The SPX
hasn't even retraced 38% of the move down from 2007, it has onlly
retraced 21.7, that's all the way up at SPX 1000. I've stated
clearly that my targets are SPX 1000 - 1100. The market is
doing what I said it would do, why would I change my analysis
now?
A new bull market will begin when the SPX goes back over the 20
month MA, at best it might rally back to it but then I think it
will reverse back down off of it, that's my target, since the 20
month MA is falling, it will probably meet up with it at the 1000 -
1100 area or the 38% or 50% Fibs.
Bear markets unfold in ABC patterns. We've had wave A
down, this is wave B up.
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:03 pm
Matt,
Do you still think there's a shot for the market to
correct to 820? Or can this A Wave take the SPX straight to 1000
with these minor pullbacks of about 20 pts? I totally agree
with your analysis I'm just shocked at how every minor pullback is
immediately bought. In my opinion a multi-day pullback would be
healthy, but it doesn't seem that this may happen. I know when
everyone starts to think it wont happen it normally does, but this
is still pretty remarkable.
Everyone and every chart I see has a pullback coming ... The
question is from what levels does A complete and the B pullback
happen. One option still open is that we Tech.
haven't completed Wave 5 up in A. Most charts I see have SPX
875-900 as end levels for A. That is a fair target
should SPX 863 ress not hold and we go higher. It's
tricky right now but that's why it is.
Dont let the feeling of missing this rally suck you in. I had 2
calls from friends wanting to buy banks which tell me the market is
doing its job of sucking people in. I guess the best way to explain
it is to date the market daily......and dont marry it......
I have no doubt that those fib levels posted will be met on the
pull back.
The intermediate trend will be up for the next couple months,
let's not worry about a new bull market until we get up to those
levels, it's useless to talk about that now. Shorts are for short
term trades only, and Longs are the primary trades and will be for
some time. Play the trend.
SDS 60 min chart
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 04:26 pm
Here's the 60 in SDS chart, notice that the ROC indicator never got over the 0% level
Started trial today
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:09 pm
This market is quite impressive. From my experience trading the market typically does not allow such an easy trade to last. Buying dips on tech or financials is almost guaranteed money. I just wonder when this easy money will end. Buy programs seem to be at every support level now. This market is trading like a bull market right now. Negative news is a non-event and positive or lukewarm news results in explosive moves higher. Has anyone ever seen anything like this before? I've only been trading a few years so this is the first time I've witnesses a bear market.
Yep, this is typical after
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:16 pm
Yep, this is typical after the market was down strongly for a 1.5 years, the first rally is strong and hard and people don't believe it, thus it continues to move higher to suck everyone in. When everyone is finally convienced that the market is in a new bull market, then it will trap the masses. Anway the market was down for 1.5 years (primary wave), therefore primary wave B counter trend rally should last 3 - 6 months
Thanks for the response.
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:40 pm
Thanks for the response.
how can you be so
Posted by estelleoc on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:33 pm
how can you be so sure its not the start of the bull market?
estelleoc - because months ago I
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:53 pm
estelleoc - because months ago I said many times that when the market bottoms, that the rally would be strong enough that it would fool the masses into believing that this is a new bull market. The market is doing exactly what I said it would do. The SPX hasn't even retraced 38% of the move down from 2007, it has onlly retraced 21.7, that's all the way up at SPX 1000. I've stated clearly that my targets are SPX 1000 - 1100. The market is doing what I said it would do, why would I change my analysis now?
A new bull market will begin when the SPX goes back over the 20 month MA, at best it might rally back to it but then I think it will reverse back down off of it, that's my target, since the 20 month MA is falling, it will probably meet up with it at the 1000 - 1100 area or the 38% or 50% Fibs.
Bear markets unfold in ABC patterns. We've had wave A down, this is wave B up.
Matt, Do you still think there's
Posted by jwtrades on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:03 pm
Matt,
Do you still think there's a shot for the market to correct to 820? Or can this A Wave take the SPX straight to 1000 with these minor pullbacks of about 20 pts? I totally agree with your analysis I'm just shocked at how every minor pullback is immediately bought. In my opinion a multi-day pullback would be healthy, but it doesn't seem that this may happen. I know when everyone starts to think it wont happen it normally does, but this is still pretty remarkable.
Everyone and every chart I
Posted by cspirit on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:56 pm
Everyone and every chart I see has a pullback coming ... The question is from what levels does A complete and the B pullback happen. One option still open is that we Tech. haven't completed Wave 5 up in A. Most charts I see have SPX 875-900 as end levels for A. That is a fair target should SPX 863 ress not hold and we go higher. It's tricky right now but that's why it is.
stay thru to the charts...they
Posted by siewyin on 15th of Apr 2009 at 07:31 pm
stay thru to the charts...they tell the story.
Dont let the feeling of missing this rally suck you in. I had 2 calls from friends wanting to buy banks which tell me the market is doing its job of sucking people in. I guess the best way to explain it is to date the market daily......and dont marry it......
I have no doubt that those fib levels posted will be met on the pull back.
The intermediate trend will be
Posted by matt on 15th of Apr 2009 at 06:14 pm
The intermediate trend will be up for the next couple months, let's not worry about a new bull market until we get up to those levels, it's useless to talk about that now. Shorts are for short term trades only, and Longs are the primary trades and will be for some time. Play the trend.
ABC bear
Posted by philr on 15th of Apr 2009 at 05:57 pm
Matt,
Where do you see ABC during the bear market from 2001 to 2003? I don't see it.