Assuming this is a wave C down in the SPX, and because all wave
Cs must be 5 waves, looks like wave 1 of C was 810.48-783.32 and a
.618 retrace takes the SPX back to
800.11...though wave 2s can retrace almost 100 %
but NOT over. Never dull these markets.
Lol, while I was writing this I see the SPX seems to have topped
at 799.99......x
The Problem with fibs is that there always seems to be another
one to calculate or to blow right through. Most of the times a
corrective wave can be "in the range" so an actual number becomes
seemingly meaningless.
This kind of day wears me out, as all I really want to see is
the start of a wave 3 of C down really start to kick in here
abouts.
Instead it looks like we may be going...Up, Up and away??? x
And yes Steve seems to be calling it spot on again,
ifwe are still in a B wave up one of my fibs shows
we go back to 814... looking like it may happen
today. x
If we are in 2 of 3 of C, wave 2s often retrace .886% of wave 1
in the S&P and, rarely, .941%. If we exceed the previous
high at 810+, then we are still in wave B
Yes, the .941 fib seems to have held the upper end of this still
possible wave 2 of C advance up....I am glad to have been reminded
of these wave 2 fibs....I knew it could retrace almost all the way
but did not recall the higher fibs numbers....
....very encouraging for the bears...now if the SPX would make
like the
Thresher*and DIVE DIVE DIVE, hehehe. x
*the
Thresherwas an unfortunate US submarine that had imploded
and sank incredibly fast
And she don't feel like singing, oh well up we go.....slight,
very slight hope 810.48 but I expect 814 next and maybe the closing
of the gap if not 833 again....
Posted by tonygrusso on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:56 am
Steve,
can the H&S pattern still be considered valid that you
discussed last night on QQQQ and RUT 60min chart despite this
strong rally off the morning lows?
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:58 am
Yes it can Tony - they have yet to take out their
shoulders. Again, that's why I said these patterns ONLY
confirm on break of their necklines. Need to take
things one day at a time.
SPX wave C???
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:24 am
Assuming this is a wave C down in the SPX, and because all wave Cs must be 5 waves, looks like wave 1 of C was 810.48-783.32 and a .618 retrace takes the SPX back to 800.11...though wave 2s can retrace almost 100 % but NOT over. Never dull these markets.
Lol, while I was writing this I see the SPX seems to have topped at 799.99......x
Ok so much for 800.11...how's
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:44 am
Ok so much for 800.11...how's about the .786 level at 804.67??? x
The Problem with Fibs
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 11:42 am
The Problem with fibs is that there always seems to be another one to calculate or to blow right through. Most of the times a corrective wave can be "in the range" so an actual number becomes seemingly meaningless.
This kind of day wears me out, as all I really want to see is the start of a wave 3 of C down really start to kick in here abouts.
Instead it looks like we may be going...Up, Up and away??? x
And yes Steve seems to be calling it spot on again, ifwe are still in a B wave up one of my fibs shows we go back to 814... looking like it may happen today. x
The Trouble with Fibs
Posted by clivew3 on 1st of Apr 2009 at 12:10 pm
If we are in 2 of 3 of C, wave 2s often retrace .886% of wave 1 in the S&P and, rarely, .941%. If we exceed the previous high at 810+, then we are still in wave B
thanks...we are between just under
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 12:16 pm
thanks...we are between just under .941 now....all this shall be revealed in due time....
Steve, how would that a-b-c flat work out..................x
The Trouble with Fibs
Posted by clivew3 on 1st of Apr 2009 at 01:01 pm
I may be a bit early but S&P hit the .941% retrace on the nail (cash) and has started to reverse down with all short term indicators very overbought
Yes, the .941 fib seems
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 01:15 pm
Yes, the .941 fib seems to have held the upper end of this still possible wave 2 of C advance up....I am glad to have been reminded of these wave 2 fibs....I knew it could retrace almost all the way but did not recall the higher fibs numbers....
....very encouraging for the bears...now if the SPX would make like the Thresher*and DIVE DIVE DIVE, hehehe. x
*the Thresherwas an unfortunate US submarine that had imploded and sank incredibly fast
Not till the Fat lady
Posted by gan_ on 1st of Apr 2009 at 01:39 pm
Not till the Fat lady sings...
And she don't feel like
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 01:56 pm
And she don't feel like singing, oh well up we go.....slight, very slight hope 810.48 but I expect 814 next and maybe the closing of the gap if not 833 again....
was worried cld be a
Posted by gan_ on 1st of Apr 2009 at 01:45 pm
was worried cld be a no show today due to MTM voting tmrw and potential G20 surprises (assuming they haven't burn London down by then)
801 is the .786 retrace
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:41 am
801 is the .786 retrace on ES - very strong bounce
Steve, can the H&S pattern still
Posted by tonygrusso on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:56 am
Steve,
can the H&S pattern still be considered valid that you discussed last night on QQQQ and RUT 60min chart despite this strong rally off the morning lows?
Yes it can Tony -
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:58 am
Yes it can Tony - they have yet to take out their shoulders. Again, that's why I said these patterns ONLY confirm on break of their necklines. Need to take things one day at a time.
Very good analysis - the
Posted by dodgerdog on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:38 am
Very good analysis - the financials signaled this rally
good point about the financials......I
Posted by perthx on 1st of Apr 2009 at 10:50 am
good point about the financials......I sometimes forget is to watch the sectors for clues....x