I am losing big time on the SSO swing short I establised on
March 12 (50 S&P500 points lower) when I read we were
overbought with negative divergence forming. Are any shorts among
you still holding out, or should I cover and eat the loss?
Thanks.
Posted by dallassteve on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:29 am
I am holding my shorts. I might add to FAZ if we hit the
trendline of SPX around 804 and bounce back down.
Of course the maket can stay irrational longer than a person can
stay solvent. Candadianguy posted a cautionary
note.
BTW, I just noticed the tab on the blog marked "inbox," and
found 15 messages. I had not seen this before, so my
apologies to all those who wrote to me and I failed to
acknowledge.
Due to my work schedule, I can usually only place a daily trade
around market open or close. So, I started trying to swing trade
via shorting SSO (double SPY) at the close on March 12.
If you look back, we had just finished 4 consecutive up days, had
met upper resistance at 741, were "overbought", and everybody here
was talking about an inevitable pullback at that time since the
S&P500 was at resistance while support was at much lower
levels. Since then, we have continued to move up, and now the
original resistance is the new support level, and I am sitting
on a big loss. I know it's easy in hindsight to say I should have
stopped out, but I also read a lot of encouragement to stay strong
on these shorts since most wave counts showed we would
inevitably fall to the support level (which has now risen just
above my original shorting price) or even lower. At this point, I
sense a shift in sentiment and expect we will break out higher, so
I probably need to eat my shorts and take a big loss. I see a lot
of you making money on these short trades, but I can only attempt
to swing around the major resistance levels, and even that is not
working for me. Very frustrating.
I'm sure many of us can relate to your frustration. It's been a
hard time to trade for many people (except rp
) -- chart logic can
get smacked at any point by news. Have you taken a look at the
trading systems? You might want to work on some backtesting,
optimization and auto trading on your own. It has been helping me a
lot. Today I had to eat my SRS, SDS and SKF that I put on
"intellectually" on Friday but systems put me into SSO, QLD and URE
so the day may be OK. Hope you find your way.
SSO/SPY Short Killing Me
Posted by sethbru on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:13 am
I am losing big time on the SSO swing short I establised on March 12 (50 S&P500 points lower) when I read we were overbought with negative divergence forming. Are any shorts among you still holding out, or should I cover and eat the loss? Thanks.
Short Covering
Posted by geotex on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:22 pm
I'm holding my shorts. The market will retrace and we'll be rewarded.
Buy a few calls to
Posted by gs on 24th of Mar 2009 at 09:47 pm
Buy a few calls to protect your capital. You might be wrong.
I am holding my shorts.
Posted by dallassteve on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:29 am
I am holding my shorts. I might add to FAZ if we hit the trendline of SPX around 804 and bounce back down.
Of course the maket can stay irrational longer than a person can stay solvent. Candadianguy posted a cautionary note.
BTW, I just noticed the tab on the blog marked "inbox," and found 15 messages. I had not seen this before, so my apologies to all those who wrote to me and I failed to acknowledge.
SSO/SPY was not close to
Posted by dodgerdog on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:25 am
SSO/SPY was not close to overbought on March 12th on the longer term charts which is what you need to follow if swing trading.
Due to my work schedule,
Posted by sethbru on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 02:50 pm
Due to my work schedule, I can usually only place a daily trade around market open or close. So, I started trying to swing trade via shorting SSO (double SPY) at the close on March 12. If you look back, we had just finished 4 consecutive up days, had met upper resistance at 741, were "overbought", and everybody here was talking about an inevitable pullback at that time since the S&P500 was at resistance while support was at much lower levels. Since then, we have continued to move up, and now the original resistance is the new support level, and I am sitting on a big loss. I know it's easy in hindsight to say I should have stopped out, but I also read a lot of encouragement to stay strong on these shorts since most wave counts showed we would inevitably fall to the support level (which has now risen just above my original shorting price) or even lower. At this point, I sense a shift in sentiment and expect we will break out higher, so I probably need to eat my shorts and take a big loss. I see a lot of you making money on these short trades, but I can only attempt to swing around the major resistance levels, and even that is not working for me. Very frustrating.
I'm sure many of us
Posted by bkout3 on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 03:05 pm
I'm sure many of us can relate to your frustration. It's been a hard time to trade for many people (except rp
) -- chart logic can
get smacked at any point by news. Have you taken a look at the
trading systems? You might want to work on some backtesting,
optimization and auto trading on your own. It has been helping me a
lot. Today I had to eat my SRS, SDS and SKF that I put on
"intellectually" on Friday but systems put me into SSO, QLD and URE
so the day may be OK. Hope you find your way.
Dodger, you are referring to
Posted by junkmaylbox on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:43 am
Dodger, you are referring to 60-minute charts as long-term charts here? Please clarify. I did the same mistake on that exact day.
There WAS a short signal
Posted by brophy on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 12:25 pm
There WAS a short signal on the 60 min S&P 7-21 crossover friday...
BUT i do not have pateince for losses...when it went the other way I go out pre-maket this AM with small loss WHPSAW!
The daily charts Roy -
Posted by dodgerdog on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:58 am
The daily charts Roy - the rally was just beginning around March 12th. The 60 minute charts also DID not have any negative divergence at that time.
I suppose if 805 gets
Posted by perthx on 23rd of Mar 2009 at 11:25 am
I suppose if 805 gets broken that might be your signal to bail at this point.