This is just one possibility. Either this is the top of
the ABC or we are at the top of a with a B down and C up to
come. Either way we should have a down move starting soon.
to me that wave 4 is too short, that 5 you have drawn in there
is likely minute 5 of 3 of A, my count has today being 5 of
A. To me that B pullback you have was too shallow in time, I
think it was a 4. I could be wrong and EW can be subjective
as we know, that's just my opinion.
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:46 pm
just had a thought on Matt's wave count.
He has said many times that wave 5 equals wave 1 - well wave 1
was from 666 to 696 so 30 points. now it looks like wave 5 is 30
points from 715 to 745. should be stopping right around here.
Now if B is 50% that gives us 40 points down to 705. we shall
see. as a bear that seems hard to believe i will get that profit
out of sds and srs that i am currently a bit underwater on, but it
would not surprise me at all...
Yes, the patterns develop and count changes. I am
practicing doing my own counts and learning a lot on the way
(especially when I am wrong) EW perfers your count too and a
possible rise to 764 to be the top of Wave 4. Fina
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Wave 4 Top
Posted by finam on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:14 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=15&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&id=p79096288706&a=162698331&listNum=17
This is just one possibility. Either this is the top of the ABC or we are at the top of a with a B down and C up to come. Either way we should have a down move starting soon.
SPX 15 min chart.png to me
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:24 pm
to me that wave 4 is too short, that 5 you have drawn in there is likely minute 5 of 3 of A, my count has today being 5 of A. To me that B pullback you have was too shallow in time, I think it was a 4. I could be wrong and EW can be subjective as we know, that's just my opinion.
just had a thought on
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:46 pm
just had a thought on Matt's wave count.
He has said many times that wave 5 equals wave 1 - well wave 1 was from 666 to 696 so 30 points. now it looks like wave 5 is 30 points from 715 to 745. should be stopping right around here.
Now if B is 50% that gives us 40 points down to 705. we shall see. as a bear that seems hard to believe i will get that profit out of sds and srs that i am currently a bit underwater on, but it would not surprise me at all...
If wave 5 is = 1
Posted by ravun on 12th of Mar 2009 at 03:05 pm
Then on the Dow weekly, it was hit EXACTLY on the 6th. I am still in the "alternate" camp..fwiw
cg, given the time of day...and
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:50 pm
cg,
given the time of day...and the news of the day, I'd be suprised if we reversed here...I'll likely be exiting longs tomorrow..or just before close
well we could just go
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:58 pm
well we could just go sideways today then go down tomorrow
given the rally i think any bad news that comes out will be enough for some to take some profits.
that being said this rally is so strong maybe B is only a 38% retrace instead of 50%
this rally is much stronger than the one in feb so far in terms of % gain off the bottom and in terms of "straight up" without a correction
Yes, the patterns develop and
Posted by finam on 12th of Mar 2009 at 02:44 pm
Yes, the patterns develop and count changes. I am practicing doing my own counts and learning a lot on the way (especially when I am wrong) EW perfers your count too and a possible rise to 764 to be the top of Wave 4. Fina