Again this is my scenario. this whole move up appears to be wave
A of major wave 4. Todays move up looks like 5 of
of A of 4. We now have negative divergence developing via the
MACD. The MACD needs to turn over to confirm the
divergence.
Once this wave A is over, then we should get a larger wave B
pullback but that pullback should form a higher low in B, then we
should get another move higher in wave C, and that will finally
complete major wave 4. However but for now we are still in
wave 5 of A. Look for an end to this initial up move very
soon, and then a B pullback, therefore use caution with Longs up in
here.
Makes sense to me. Good concise read on the wave count in
last night's update, and your target of 740 to 770 wave 4 seems
reasonable. Seems too many folks are expecting much more out
of this current bounce and I think it's another bull trap setting
up short term.
B waves are zig zags so of course higher low, or in the reverse
case a lower high if were in a downtrend.
For now the market remains strong, divergence don't have to play
out, but we are near resistance, so just watch that.
Remember we really dont' know the longer term count, we still
consider this major wave 4 as Steve said last night, but the
alternate coutn is that it the major 5 is in.
SPX 15 min chart.png Again this
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:03 pm
Again this is my scenario. this whole move up appears to be wave A of major wave 4. Todays move up looks like 5 of of A of 4. We now have negative divergence developing via the MACD. The MACD needs to turn over to confirm the divergence.
Once this wave A is over, then we should get a larger wave B pullback but that pullback should form a higher low in B, then we should get another move higher in wave C, and that will finally complete major wave 4. However but for now we are still in wave 5 of A. Look for an end to this initial up move very soon, and then a B pullback, therefore use caution with Longs up in here.
Makes sense to me. Good
Posted by homer on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:19 pm
Makes sense to me. Good concise read on the wave count in last night's update, and your target of 740 to 770 wave 4 seems reasonable. Seems too many folks are expecting much more out of this current bounce and I think it's another bull trap setting up short term.
yep agree, however remember that
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:21 pm
yep agree, however remember that this does not endmajor wave 4, it is only wave A of 4, we still have B and C to go through
B wave pullback
Posted by DK on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:31 pm
Matt, you may have already done so, but can you post the fib levels to look for on a B pullback?
739 - 740 is major
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:11 pm
739 - 740 is major Fib resistance, plus that's where the market broke down from last time
Does this mean a the
Posted by ssss1 on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:34 pm
Does this mean a the wave B retracement will be higher than the 666 low.....i would imagine the 700 level ?
What happened to that inverse H&S ?
B waves are zig zags
Posted by matt on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:43 pm
B waves are zig zags so of course higher low, or in the reverse case a lower high if were in a downtrend.
For now the market remains strong, divergence don't have to play out, but we are near resistance, so just watch that.
Remember we really dont' know the longer term count, we still consider this major wave 4 as Steve said last night, but the alternate coutn is that it the major 5 is in.
thank you mr matt. Do you
Posted by ssss1 on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:55 pm
thank you mr matt.
Do you have a view on "JEF" ?
excellent work, as usual.
Posted by PA on 12th of Mar 2009 at 01:05 pm
excellent work, as usual.