he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time
since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few
days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short
gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now
he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having
missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work
is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are
good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart
because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but
as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still
coming) can be very profitable
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that
$gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as
everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by
the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as
a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to
know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who
was a bit out of touch with reality.
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000.
Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures
do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move.
But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need
to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend
newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops
consistently on stocks.
prechter
FWIW
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:00 am
he and the EW guys have been bearish almost the entire time since 1988. He has been a bear on gold from $270, except for a few days fairly recently and even then he has been looking to short gold on every rally. He has been wrong 98% of the time, except now he can cheer himself because he says he called the top. Having missed the bull market for 20 years now he can be right? His work is next to worthless, except his observations on social trends are good sometimes. That said, he is coincidentally going to look smart because as he says we are near the low. Everyone knows that - but as RP rightly points out the last leg down (if there is one still coming) can be very profitable
PA, I heard that opinion
Posted by junkmaylbox on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:32 am
PA, I heard that opinion on gold. The problem seems to be that $gold does not follow technical analysis to the same extent as everything else. To me the issue is manipulation of gold prices by the big players more than anything else. I use EW analysis only as a road map. A map is not the territory!
The problem with Prechter is that he can see vista but fails to know small details that do not fit. The same as Bill Clinton, who was a bit out of touch with reality.
Gold
Posted by PA on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:35 am
TA has worked fine for me on gold. Got bullish in August 2000. Called the 2008 top and recent low. FWIW, commodity futures do trade differently - they need less time to prepare for a move. But they get parabolic and crushed like everything else. Just need to look at them differently from stocks. Which is why I recommend newbies avoid futures and commodities until they prove their chops consistently on stocks.
Right on, PA!
Posted by brophy on 25th of Feb 2009 at 09:13 am
Right on, PA!