Per my 10 min chart way earlier today, the market sold off into
the wedge and just justed out on some market news and there was
diverence building for two days. Steve noted this
earlier.
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:42 pm
well the thing is yes Dodger noted a divergence earlier, but
Matt and DOdger both noted a symmetrical triangle every day on
5charts per da for 20 days, saying a breakdown ought to be
respected... so it is hard to know which piece of advice to follow,
sell the breakdown or buy the negative divergence. what is the
point of saying anything if two things cancel each other out?
i am not long or short just using a bit of money on the skf
system until this market gets a pattern, and observing a very
frustrating market and some very frustrated traders (including me)
who are getting whipped around like crazy.
Dodger -- you've been giving the right advice over and over: BE
RELENTLESS ABOUT TAKING PROFITS! I've never seen a market like
this, and I don't think anyone here has.
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:52 pm
Thanks puma - I only can react to the charts and this has been
one tough NUT to crack. Have a plan and execute it is what I
preach as well as taking profits relentlessly in this market.
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:57 pm
when i say i really appreciate all the hard work and great
recommendations Matt and Steve give us every day.
Today is one of the most frustrating days I have ever had and I
am not even in the market, just watching it looking for signals. I
can't imagine how those of you feel who saw tons of profits
disappear here.
Thanks again to everyone here, I am not trying to be a jerk.
I still think the market broke down today and despite this
massive short covering rally at the end of the day sponsored by the
PPT, three days now below 8000 on the Dow is ominous, and whether
it is a closing low or not these stocks have lots of downside,
especially the financials.
Yep it was a hard day -- was looking like it would redeem itself
for my shorts only to get smacked at the end. I can relate to your
wondering sometimes which bit of analysis to give more weight to.
Longer term it seems clear that Matt and Steve are looking for new
lows and I respect that they've made a clear commitment in that
respect. Shorter term I agree there often seem to be conflicts like
the triangle break vs. the strong support below and the divergence.
Little bit like "On the one hand...but on the other hand..." -- I
understand that they can't give us definite answers especially
lately but in the end we still have to decide what to do or whether
to stand aside. I've been leaning towards using the systems to get
my decision making out of it -- I don't think I'm very good at
these decisions at least the last number of months. Anyway thanks
for posting your thinking.
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:34 pm
bkout - there is no conflict when stating a triangle break with
support below - those are facts and support is support until it's
NOT. The triangle break provided for some downside movement
(nearly 25 SPX points) before reversing at support. Those
supports and divergences would have you on alert to take some
profits if they are not negated on the breakdown. I even
posted today to expect a boucne just before the rally
unfolded. You have to accept what the market if giving at
this time or else look longer term with wider stops. Quite
simply, this is not an easy market to trade so you have to be
focused and have a plan tailored to your own trading objectives and
risk tolerances.
great response dodger! Technical analysis works and that
triangle did give 25 SPX points to the downside so one could have
tightened up stops if short. Or if you shorted at higher
levels, you could stay short, it's your choice.
All day long I posted the bull wedge developing on the SPX with
the multiple points of positive divergence developing, that was
something to take note of. Then of course the market rallies
hard on speculation.
The PPT is about and the way the market is trading, it's all
traders and it feels manipulated as well. That's why it's
still a good idea to take profits in this market, it's a traders
market and is manipulated anyway.
Now regarding the comment about the big picture, yes we are in a
horrible bear market. I dont' care if the SPX rallies 250
points, it will still be in a bear market!
I took profits just as the news broke but my decision was based
on matt and steves comments on relentlessly taking profits in this
screwed up market. also checking the blogs regularly and the
dynamic links are key. that wedge matt put up w/pos divergence
really convinced me to be on the lookout. thanks matt. for me and
my clients!!!!
Great Point Dodger ... That's why I'm staying in cash.
This is a "Run the Stops Only" IMHO market currently.
It's not trending therefore unless you can watch it every hour
(Which I cannot next couple weeks) staying on the sidelines.
Posted by dowjones4k on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:00 pm
i find it more helpful to look at the morning charts formulate
my own thoughts first then listen to their commentary - which
lately i totally ignore.
i do not play any current month options and set my goals more to
long term thinking on the downside as i believe this is a
depression we heading into.
i have studied the 1929 charts a lot and formulate my strategy
around that. i have done this since November 20. i have
bought double short funds and sold calls untill lately as i believe
we are ready for a big move. i have found this has cut out my
whipsaws.
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:58 pm
I had nice profits on SRS.....went to pee....came back and I'm
stopped out..
maybe we could stress more shorting into strength...than looking
for breakdowns...or breakouts..
I've notice that when matt posts a bunch of new ideas whether
long or short and we are near a breakdown...there's a good chance
we have a reversal that day..
Posted by maggi3322 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:07 pm
anyone trading with schwab had a bad day today as their trade
reporting had problems so if you raised a stop limit and then tried
to sell the stock it said you didnt have shares to sell and the
change had never been confirmed. Most everthing I did today had to
be done by phone :(
SPX 10 min chart.png Per my 10
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:34 pm
Per my 10 min chart way earlier today, the market sold off into the wedge and just justed out on some market news and there was diverence building for two days. Steve noted this earlier.
matt - judging by the
Posted by cwa82675 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:44 pm
matt - judging by the strenth of the rally would you call the 808 low a b wave with this c? I would match the time parameters better also.
well the thing is yes
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:42 pm
well the thing is yes Dodger noted a divergence earlier, but Matt and DOdger both noted a symmetrical triangle every day on 5charts per da for 20 days, saying a breakdown ought to be respected... so it is hard to know which piece of advice to follow, sell the breakdown or buy the negative divergence. what is the point of saying anything if two things cancel each other out?
i am not long or short just using a bit of money on the skf system until this market gets a pattern, and observing a very frustrating market and some very frustrated traders (including me) who are getting whipped around like crazy.
This market is NOT EASY
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:44 pm
This market is NOT EASY with all the intervention.
Dodger -- you've been giving
Posted by puma on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:51 pm
Dodger -- you've been giving the right advice over and over: BE RELENTLESS ABOUT TAKING PROFITS! I've never seen a market like this, and I don't think anyone here has.
Thanks puma - I only
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:52 pm
Thanks puma - I only can react to the charts and this has been one tough NUT to crack. Have a plan and execute it is what I preach as well as taking profits relentlessly in this market.
well i think I speak for most of us
Posted by canadianguy on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:57 pm
when i say i really appreciate all the hard work and great recommendations Matt and Steve give us every day.
Today is one of the most frustrating days I have ever had and I am not even in the market, just watching it looking for signals. I can't imagine how those of you feel who saw tons of profits disappear here.
Thanks again to everyone here, I am not trying to be a jerk.
I still think the market broke down today and despite this massive short covering rally at the end of the day sponsored by the PPT, three days now below 8000 on the Dow is ominous, and whether it is a closing low or not these stocks have lots of downside, especially the financials.
canadianguy, Yep it was a hard
Posted by bkout3 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:24 pm
canadianguy,
Yep it was a hard day -- was looking like it would redeem itself for my shorts only to get smacked at the end. I can relate to your wondering sometimes which bit of analysis to give more weight to. Longer term it seems clear that Matt and Steve are looking for new lows and I respect that they've made a clear commitment in that respect. Shorter term I agree there often seem to be conflicts like the triangle break vs. the strong support below and the divergence. Little bit like "On the one hand...but on the other hand..." -- I understand that they can't give us definite answers especially lately but in the end we still have to decide what to do or whether to stand aside. I've been leaning towards using the systems to get my decision making out of it -- I don't think I'm very good at these decisions at least the last number of months. Anyway thanks for posting your thinking.
bkout - there is no
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:34 pm
bkout - there is no conflict when stating a triangle break with support below - those are facts and support is support until it's NOT. The triangle break provided for some downside movement (nearly 25 SPX points) before reversing at support. Those supports and divergences would have you on alert to take some profits if they are not negated on the breakdown. I even posted today to expect a boucne just before the rally unfolded. You have to accept what the market if giving at this time or else look longer term with wider stops. Quite simply, this is not an easy market to trade so you have to be focused and have a plan tailored to your own trading objectives and risk tolerances.
great response dodger! Technical analysis
Posted by matt on 12th of Feb 2009 at 10:10 pm
great response dodger! Technical analysis works and that triangle did give 25 SPX points to the downside so one could have tightened up stops if short. Or if you shorted at higher levels, you could stay short, it's your choice.
All day long I posted the bull wedge developing on the SPX with the multiple points of positive divergence developing, that was something to take note of. Then of course the market rallies hard on speculation.
The PPT is about and the way the market is trading, it's all traders and it feels manipulated as well. That's why it's still a good idea to take profits in this market, it's a traders market and is manipulated anyway.
Now regarding the comment about the big picture, yes we are in a horrible bear market. I dont' care if the SPX rallies 250 points, it will still be in a bear market!
took profits
Posted by tarzan on 13th of Feb 2009 at 12:01 am
matt/steve
I took profits just as the news broke but my decision was based on matt and steves comments on relentlessly taking profits in this screwed up market. also checking the blogs regularly and the dynamic links are key. that wedge matt put up w/pos divergence really convinced me to be on the lookout. thanks matt. for me and my clients!!!!
Great Point Dodger ... That's
Posted by cspirit on 12th of Feb 2009 at 08:42 pm
Great Point Dodger ... That's why I'm staying in cash. This is a "Run the Stops Only" IMHO market currently. It's not trending therefore unless you can watch it every hour (Which I cannot next couple weeks) staying on the sidelines.
i find it more helpful
Posted by dowjones4k on 12th of Feb 2009 at 06:00 pm
i find it more helpful to look at the morning charts formulate my own thoughts first then listen to their commentary - which lately i totally ignore.
i do not play any current month options and set my goals more to long term thinking on the downside as i believe this is a depression we heading into.
i have studied the 1929 charts a lot and formulate my strategy around that. i have done this since November 20. i have bought double short funds and sold calls untill lately as i believe we are ready for a big move. i have found this has cut out my whipsaws.
don't worry I feel the
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:08 pm
don't worry I feel the same way
Dodger, It's like the PPT is
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:48 pm
Dodger,
It's like the PPT is watching the charts.....and placing headlines....
PPT is monitoring the board
Posted by homer on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:53 pm
PPT is monitoring the board here..
Exactly - they certainly no
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:51 pm
Exactly - they certainly no when to pounce.
I had nice profits on
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:58 pm
I had nice profits on SRS.....went to pee....came back and I'm stopped out..
maybe we could stress more shorting into strength...than looking for breakdowns...or breakouts..
I've notice that when matt posts a bunch of new ideas whether long or short and we are near a breakdown...there's a good chance we have a reversal that day..
SRS
Posted by drorlando on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:03 pm
I will work harder on that dylan, you have good point. Just seeing things I have not ever seen before.
anyone trading with schwab had
Posted by maggi3322 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 04:07 pm
anyone trading with schwab had a bad day today as their trade reporting had problems so if you raised a stop limit and then tried to sell the stock it said you didnt have shares to sell and the change had never been confirmed. Most everthing I did today had to be done by phone :(
now I'm gonna have to
Posted by dylan398 on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:50 pm
now I'm gonna have to listen to Kudlow...and his band of idiots tell me how we tested resistance...and the market is strong....
The breakdown this morning gave
Posted by dodgerdog on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:43 pm
The breakdown this morning gave nice profits - I also said that 800-805 area was STONG SUPPORT.
Thank you, dodger; it has
Posted by junkmaylbox on 12th of Feb 2009 at 05:30 pm
Thank you, dodger; it has certainly played out. In addition to the positive divergence, you mentioned in your last night's update.
GREAT CALL MATT! That one
Posted by puma on 12th of Feb 2009 at 03:37 pm
GREAT CALL MATT! That one was worth some serious money! Thanks!!!