Posted by junkmaylbox on 31st of Jan 2009 at 10:33 am
He misidentified the beginning of the pattern. It started at
around 950, which would give a measured target of about 200 points
down. It's would be around 540, in accord with cwa82675's
prediction for 6200 on the Dow. IMO.
Looks like he took his start point at the current base of the
triangle, which is about 810. However, don't think one can predict
where it will go with any certainty; need to take it one day at a
time, as Steve says. But the trend doesn't look too good at
present. Another thing to think about is that one of the
control points for the upper part of the triangle
is the Obama election day high anomaly. If one were
able to normalize this, the formation might be more akin
to a true Bear Flag rather than a triangle.
This is a hard market to trade. Investors are gone. Many traders
are loitering, trying to take stabs at going long so as to not miss
that "first 20%", but are afraid to be too adventurous trying
to catch the falling knife, and get caught by another downdraft.
The Bears, on the other hand, are afraid of getting
caught short by some newly announced wrinkle in trading
rules, or legislated change or political initiative, which may
instantly fire up the market. Think this is the reason for
the "chop and slop" trading action that rp mentioned.
Just look back to July 15 of this year to see how the
non-shorting rule reversed the downtrend, and kept the market
afloat for 2 months.
I agree with your opinion about the long term trend. Too
many are still thinking that the government is going to
rebirth the misery we are faced with. No one wants
to look at the in depth analysis to determine the future. We are
facing an implosion of historic proportions. The eternal optimists
are delusional. The pain is just beginng to
be felt....
I agree with you that this market is hard to trade. No money is
earned easily, if one is independent. Traders are a stern
substratum of the investor crowd, they can manage their risks so
that they could sleep at night. Good luck!
Not 210, around 540 on the $SPX.
unless you believe we started
Posted by junkmaylbox on 31st of Jan 2009 at 10:33 am
He misidentified the beginning of the pattern. It started at around 950, which would give a measured target of about 200 points down. It's would be around 540, in accord with cwa82675's prediction for 6200 on the Dow. IMO.
Looks like he took his
Posted by x100 on 31st of Jan 2009 at 04:40 pm
Looks like he took his start point at the current base of the triangle, which is about 810. However, don't think one can predict where it will go with any certainty; need to take it one day at a time, as Steve says. But the trend doesn't look too good at present. Another thing to think about is that one of the control points for the upper part of the triangle is the Obama election day high anomaly. If one were able to normalize this, the formation might be more akin to a true Bear Flag rather than a triangle.
This is a hard market to trade. Investors are gone. Many traders are loitering, trying to take stabs at going long so as to not miss that "first 20%", but are afraid to be too adventurous trying to catch the falling knife, and get caught by another downdraft. The Bears, on the other hand, are afraid of getting caught short by some newly announced wrinkle in trading rules, or legislated change or political initiative, which may instantly fire up the market. Think this is the reason for the "chop and slop" trading action that rp mentioned.
Just look back to July 15 of this year to see how the non-shorting rule reversed the downtrend, and kept the market afloat for 2 months.
Scalping
Posted by geotex on 31st of Jan 2009 at 08:55 pm
I agree with your opinion about the long term trend. Too many are still thinking that the government is going to rebirth the misery we are faced with. No one wants to look at the in depth analysis to determine the future. We are facing an implosion of historic proportions. The eternal optimists are delusional. The pain is just beginng to be felt....
Steve also drew the triangle
Posted by junkmaylbox on 31st of Jan 2009 at 06:40 pm
Steve also drew the triangle in a similar fashion: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84620209002&a=157306645&listNum=11. 6200 on the $DJIA and low 600 on $SPX are conservative estimates.
I agree with you that this market is hard to trade. No money is earned easily, if one is independent. Traders are a stern substratum of the investor crowd, they can manage their risks so that they could sleep at night. Good luck!
thanks for the info
Posted by lg on 31st of Jan 2009 at 12:35 pm
thanks for the info