Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:37 pm
I side with you here. SKF below 130 and SRS in low 50s are
terrific buys. I bought those and am going to wait. In the past
four months, a big up day was followed by a down day.
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:00 pm
I guess the operative word is "lightly scaling in," as far as
shorting at this moment goes. You've got more guts than
me. I'm waiting to see if the SPX loses 866 before I
short. Don't you think the SPX may may another run at 900
today?
just make sure you have a stop in place if you are short.
That 50% Fib might have been the top, however there was also no
divergence, so watch to see if previous resistance becomes
support. The H&S pattern measures to 900 and the 61.8%
Fib is 890
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:50 pm
matt, you are right. I have little luck with choosing stop sizes
for those issues, so I'm going to position trade them. I will sell
if 877 is lost or we rest the breakout line. I cannot find anything
more intelligent in this situation. If you have any suggestions, I
am all ears.
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:43 pm
Thanks Matt. Beautiful charts. Yes, very tricky
market, as cspirit says. It is good to see the market start
to do something. I've got tight stops, and will be looking forward
to your commentary later tonight.
One way to play this is to use smaller share sizes and larger
stops. It appears to me market makers know right where stops
should be placed and are running them both ways (Short/Long)
Remember they only make money doing trades not like us.
There goal is to do as many buy/sell orders as they can.
I've done better past month trading smaller amounts and wider
stops.
I place it based on where support is if going long. I then
figure out how much money I want to use and then figure out how
much to risk. I try not to risk more than 5%-8%
capital.
Example UNG
I did 500 shares today at $18.10. Support was like
$18.20. I placed my market limit sell stop at $17.35
GTC. It's far enough down that sell stops won't hit it only
to head higher.
So 9K cashed used risking $375 dollars on 9K investment or
little bit over 4% of the 9K. Once I get couple dollar gain I
will move stop up .50cents.
Only way would be if we get a short covering rally . They
hit all the buy stops near SPX 860 and all the short cover stops
once 855-860 area cleared. This could be why were kinda just
holding stready at 871 currently
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:21 pm
Good call concerning shorting. SPX hit 866. I'm
late, but I might jump in soon. If anyone else is thinking
about shorting SSO at this point, I sure would be interested in
your idea of a stop. Thanks.
Im not sure if the
unless you believe we started
Posted by cwa82675 on 28th of Jan 2009 at 02:51 pm
Im not sure if the rally is going to stick or not so I am lightly buying into skf/sds/srs and trading sp futures heavily with tight stops.
I side with you here.
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:37 pm
I side with you here. SKF below 130 and SRS in low 50s are terrific buys. I bought those and am going to wait. In the past four months, a big up day was followed by a down day.
I am also heavily into
Posted by lsherrer on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:41 pm
I am also heavily into SRS at these prices (maybe too much so), but am willing to hold it as long as I need to.
I guess the operative word
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:00 pm
I guess the operative word is "lightly scaling in," as far as shorting at this moment goes. You've got more guts than me. I'm waiting to see if the SPX loses 866 before I short. Don't you think the SPX may may another run at 900 today?
losing 866
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:25 pm
It's almost there. By your request :-)
SPX 30 min chart.png SPX 60
Posted by matt on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:36 pm
just make sure you have a stop in place if you are short. That 50% Fib might have been the top, however there was also no divergence, so watch to see if previous resistance becomes support. The H&S pattern measures to 900 and the 61.8% Fib is 890
matt, you are right. I
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:50 pm
matt, you are right. I have little luck with choosing stop sizes for those issues, so I'm going to position trade them. I will sell if 877 is lost or we rest the breakout line. I cannot find anything more intelligent in this situation. If you have any suggestions, I am all ears.
Darn! filled and order for
Posted by Jim on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:43 pm
Darn! filled and order for SRS at 50.25, right after I read this and was trying to cancel...LOL
Thanks Matt. Beautiful charts. Yes,
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:43 pm
Thanks Matt. Beautiful charts. Yes, very tricky market, as cspirit says. It is good to see the market start to do something. I've got tight stops, and will be looking forward to your commentary later tonight.
IDEA?
Posted by cspirit on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:51 pm
One way to play this is to use smaller share sizes and larger stops. It appears to me market makers know right where stops should be placed and are running them both ways (Short/Long)
Remember they only make money doing trades not like us. There goal is to do as many buy/sell orders as they can.
I've done better past month trading smaller amounts and wider stops.
Just passing this along as an IDEA only.
Chris, what is a wide
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:59 pm
Chris, what is a wide stop in your definition? 15, 20%?
I place it based on
Posted by cspirit on 28th of Jan 2009 at 04:06 pm
I place it based on where support is if going long. I then figure out how much money I want to use and then figure out how much to risk. I try not to risk more than 5%-8% capital.
Example UNG
I did 500 shares today at $18.10. Support was like $18.20. I placed my market limit sell stop at $17.35 GTC. It's far enough down that sell stops won't hit it only to head higher.
So 9K cashed used risking $375 dollars on 9K investment or little bit over 4% of the 9K. Once I get couple dollar gain I will move stop up .50cents.
This is how I do it. Money Management
Thanks, Chris. So you use
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 04:24 pm
Thanks, Chris. So you use regular size stops (4 to 6% is what books would recommend). A wide stop would mean at least 10% to me.
Only way would be if
Posted by cspirit on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:07 pm
Only way would be if we get a short covering rally . They hit all the buy stops near SPX 860 and all the short cover stops once 855-860 area cleared. This could be why were kinda just holding stready at 871 currently
Good call concerning shorting. SPX
Posted by dallassteve on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:21 pm
Good call concerning shorting. SPX hit 866. I'm late, but I might jump in soon. If anyone else is thinking about shorting SSO at this point, I sure would be interested in your idea of a stop. Thanks.
If we close above SPX
Posted by cspirit on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:30 pm
If we close above SPX 861 we have retaken support. Tricky for sure which way to trade this sucker.
Short covering is not a
Posted by junkmaylbox on 28th of Jan 2009 at 03:21 pm
Short covering is not a rally: it's only a one-day bounce. I would be surprised if tomorrow we will get a continuation.
I don't know . Last
Posted by cspirit on 28th of Jan 2009 at 02:58 pm
I don't know . Last hour will tell. I have SPX870 as a support area with not much overhead ress. to SPX 886. We do have support at SPX 860 below.
Will see in the last hour.