Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:08 pm
Any time you think a market can't go higher because of weak
economic outlook, inflation or weak earnings projections, just look
at the Japan and German markets. They are outpacing US
markets...and they have been in recessions. Money printing is all
that matters for asset prices right now.
Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:21 pm
You also told me back in March at $5,200 SPX "going long here
would be like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer". Looks
like there has been plenty of free pennies to pick up and I
actually have negative pennies while short LOL
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:36 pm
Picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer is a phrase I use
only when talking about selling premium in a low IV environment, so
I'm guessing that's what you mean vs "going long SPX". (It does
sound like something I said, but not about going long). Yes,
I still do sell options in low IV and yes it is dangerous. You have
to know how to roll / adjust and have a very good handle on
position size and notional value at risk. Oh, and you can never
ever ever ever take a day or even half a day off. The
strategy has it's moments - it was epic in 2022, but when the 20
delta calls at 45 DTE's are getting hit 95% of the time, month
after month after month, the options math is broken and you have to
take that into account also.
My experience on the short premium side is also what has me
doing long premium trades much more these days....like the straddle
I posted earlier today. You're not stuck with 1:10 risk that way,
like you are with 100 point wide wings on SPX condors. *The
max risk on the straddle today was $305. Profit potential was
unlimited. Completely different game than selling premium.
One mistake I made in November that I corrected by December
last year was not rolling up short puts to protect short calls - my
assumption was that that market would have some downside, like they
normally did. But there was no break....it just shot up and then
melted higher. Sideways is the new break. I always roll up puts to
create a positive delta exposure overall by the end of each day. No
exceptions, unless the trend changes and is actually
confirmed.
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But my chips are slowly
Any short set ups out there (asking for a friend..lol)?
Posted by shellson2 on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:04 pm
But my chips are slowly coming off the table. If I miss the next 3-5%, so be it. But Kiss will still be my guideposts.
Any time you think a
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:08 pm
Any time you think a market can't go higher because of weak economic outlook, inflation or weak earnings projections, just look at the Japan and German markets. They are outpacing US markets...and they have been in recessions. Money printing is all that matters for asset prices right now.
You also told me back
Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:21 pm
You also told me back in March at $5,200 SPX "going long here would be like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer". Looks like there has been plenty of free pennies to pick up and I actually have negative pennies while short LOL
I thought we also convinced
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:24 pm
I thought we also convinced you to exit your shorts in a bull market.
My shorts are a hedge
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:53 pm
My shorts are a hedge as long as the trend is higher. I go home with positive Delta 100% of the time.
Picking up pennies in front
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 02:36 pm
Picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer is a phrase I use only when talking about selling premium in a low IV environment, so I'm guessing that's what you mean vs "going long SPX". (It does sound like something I said, but not about going long). Yes, I still do sell options in low IV and yes it is dangerous. You have to know how to roll / adjust and have a very good handle on position size and notional value at risk. Oh, and you can never ever ever ever take a day or even half a day off. The strategy has it's moments - it was epic in 2022, but when the 20 delta calls at 45 DTE's are getting hit 95% of the time, month after month after month, the options math is broken and you have to take that into account also.
My experience on the short premium side is also what has me doing long premium trades much more these days....like the straddle I posted earlier today. You're not stuck with 1:10 risk that way, like you are with 100 point wide wings on SPX condors. *The max risk on the straddle today was $305. Profit potential was unlimited. Completely different game than selling premium.
One mistake I made in November that I corrected by December last year was not rolling up short puts to protect short calls - my assumption was that that market would have some downside, like they normally did. But there was no break....it just shot up and then melted higher. Sideways is the new break. I always roll up puts to create a positive delta exposure overall by the end of each day. No exceptions, unless the trend changes and is actually confirmed.