Posted by fluffycone on 8th of Jul 2024 at 12:58 pm
KISS System Use Case 3M (MMM)
The daily KISS System went long on 3M (MMM) on June 21, 2024 at
102.18.
The current STS is 100.60 set on June 27, 2024.
The range today (July 8, 2024) so far has been is 100.62 -
102.69. No close yet.
Would one still be following the Daily KISS System rules if one
went long today with a prices closer to the current STS?
I am not asking anyone to tell me what to do. Just testing my
understanding with this use case. I am okay if the experts
want to wait a week or two before answer this question as to not
appear to be telling me what to do.
Posted by DigiNomad on 8th of Jul 2024 at 01:42 pm
There is no correct answer to your question, but I wish someone
would have told me this when I started. Take the current
price (your proposed entry) and the STS and then find a target on
the chart that makes sense to the upside. Does it give you a 1 to 2
(or higher) risk to reward? If not, I think it's best not to
take the trade. I think many of us wait until the entry gets closer
to the STS so that we can create better R/R situations for
ourselves.
Throwing out the STS because you waited for price to get
closer to it is sort of nonsensical. If you're going to do that,
why use the system at all? The whole point is that the STS gets
adjusted higher over time and eventually takes you out of the
trade.
Note: the R/R calc is to your 1st profit target. You don't
have to take it all off and you probably shouldn't. Leave a runner.
I like to take off 1/2 to 2/3 at TP1, but to each his own. Whatever
your plan is, it's not really a plan if you don't have targets.
Most of the best all time traders I've been studying start
with a smallish position with the intention of adding twice on
pullbacks (on profitable positions) until they reach full position
size. For this reason, the 1st stop is typically the
tightest.
Silver - regarding MMM, okay so the KISS system stopped out and
went up the next day, so what. That happens, just like you will
have a bad trade at times, hyper focusing on one stock or trade is
not helpful here. The KISS systems overall have done a damn good
job and are an amazing tool. Not perfect, they never will be but
they are very unique and serve a great purpose.
also - the system went back long MMM yesterday
the prevous trade on MMM from March 13th to May 29th was a great
trade - many times after a really nice winner the odds of the next
one being a whipsaw is high, doesn't always happen but it's
common.
one strategy I try to employ is a Casino betting strategy: I set
a base amount that I plan to use for the system, let's say it's
$10,000 per trade. If the system catches a big trending winner. The
next trade (since I know that there are higher odds for a whipsaw
I'll move that number down to maybe $8000 or $7000. If the
trade is a loser I loose less, if it's a winner I still took the
trade. Let's say it's a loser, then I may elect to take the next
trade back to the $10,000 base. If the that one is a loser I might
raise the next amount to $12,000 - because I know that after a
couple small losing trades in a row, the system is due to catch a
big trend move - so I vary my bet size
it's about the long term batting averag, it's not about your
last at bat - if you are a baseball player and you have a 350
batting average, you should not overly concern yoursel out the last
two strike outs, it's about the long term average
this is a numbers game, but too many of us get emotional and
focus on the last 1 or 2 trades one one stock
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:11 pm
There's a reason brokers don't provide a stop order that only
executes at the close if price is below a certain level (like MOC
but different)....and it's not because it would be a difficult
order type to add.
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KISS System Use Case 3M
Posted by fluffycone on 8th of Jul 2024 at 12:58 pm
KISS System Use Case 3M (MMM)
The daily KISS System went long on 3M (MMM) on June 21, 2024 at 102.18.
The current STS is 100.60 set on June 27, 2024.
The range today (July 8, 2024) so far has been is 100.62 - 102.69. No close yet.
Would one still be following the Daily KISS System rules if one went long today with a prices closer to the current STS?
I am not asking anyone to tell me what to do. Just testing my understanding with this use case. I am okay if the experts want to wait a week or two before answer this question as to not appear to be telling me what to do.
Thank you for your time.
There is no correct answer
Posted by DigiNomad on 8th of Jul 2024 at 01:42 pm
There is no correct answer to your question, but I wish someone would have told me this when I started. Take the current price (your proposed entry) and the STS and then find a target on the chart that makes sense to the upside. Does it give you a 1 to 2 (or higher) risk to reward? If not, I think it's best not to take the trade. I think many of us wait until the entry gets closer to the STS so that we can create better R/R situations for ourselves.
Throwing out the STS because you waited for price to get closer to it is sort of nonsensical. If you're going to do that, why use the system at all? The whole point is that the STS gets adjusted higher over time and eventually takes you out of the trade.
Note: the R/R calc is to your 1st profit target. You don't have to take it all off and you probably shouldn't. Leave a runner. I like to take off 1/2 to 2/3 at TP1, but to each his own. Whatever your plan is, it's not really a plan if you don't have targets. Most of the best all time traders I've been studying start with a smallish position with the intention of adding twice on pullbacks (on profitable positions) until they reach full position size. For this reason, the 1st stop is typically the tightest.
Thank you. I missed the initial
Posted by Silver on 8th of Jul 2024 at 04:12 pm
Thank you.
I missed the initial entry and have been watching it and then saw it mentioned in the newsletter (but could go up or down).
(Silver aka fluffycone)
Yes I hadn't looked at
Posted by matt on 8th of Jul 2024 at 07:38 pm
Yes I hadn't looked at MMM on the KISS tables, looks like hte stop is pretty tight
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=MMM&g=DJI
Just adding a follow-up. MMM got
Posted by Silver on 9th of Jul 2024 at 04:44 pm
Just adding a follow-up.
MMM got stopped out.
Been following MMM as a
Posted by Silver on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:01 pm
Been following MMM as a use case.
After MMM gets stopped out, it jumps.
I have many bad words to say: [&*^%$#@*@#&^*]
Silver - regarding MMM, okay
Posted by matt on 12th of Jul 2024 at 04:49 pm
Silver - regarding MMM, okay so the KISS system stopped out and went up the next day, so what. That happens, just like you will have a bad trade at times, hyper focusing on one stock or trade is not helpful here. The KISS systems overall have done a damn good job and are an amazing tool. Not perfect, they never will be but they are very unique and serve a great purpose.
also - the system went back long MMM yesterday
the prevous trade on MMM from March 13th to May 29th was a great trade - many times after a really nice winner the odds of the next one being a whipsaw is high, doesn't always happen but it's common.
one strategy I try to employ is a Casino betting strategy: I set a base amount that I plan to use for the system, let's say it's $10,000 per trade. If the system catches a big trending winner. The next trade (since I know that there are higher odds for a whipsaw I'll move that number down to maybe $8000 or $7000. If the trade is a loser I loose less, if it's a winner I still took the trade. Let's say it's a loser, then I may elect to take the next trade back to the $10,000 base. If the that one is a loser I might raise the next amount to $12,000 - because I know that after a couple small losing trades in a row, the system is due to catch a big trend move - so I vary my bet size
it's about the long term batting averag, it's not about your last at bat - if you are a baseball player and you have a 350 batting average, you should not overly concern yoursel out the last two strike outs, it's about the long term average
this is a numbers game, but too many of us get emotional and focus on the last 1 or 2 trades one one stock
There's a reason brokers don't
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jul 2024 at 03:11 pm
There's a reason brokers don't provide a stop order that only executes at the close if price is below a certain level (like MOC but different)....and it's not because it would be a difficult order type to add.