Posted by elementsix on 27th of Jun 2024 at 11:59 am
@fluffycone I think you might be better off
starting with the
SPY Systems rather than the KISS.
The challenge with the KISS is it's run on hundreds of stocks
and is a single entry system with rather wide stops. Because of
this, KISS will inherently have more losing trades because there
are more trades in total. But risk is well defined with the set STS
and KISS is designed to mitigate losses.
The bigger issue, as you noted, is you also need to cherrypick
the KISS trades which further reduces the
individual likelihood of profit, especially
over small timeframes. I'd be willing to bet if you took ALL of the
KISS trades (as a giant fund could), you'd be nicely profitable,
over a longer timespan. But that's not feasible.
The SPY Systems trades are far less frequent (especially in this
market...) but have been extensively backtested. The trades have a
ton of logic built into the signals. And importantly, they allow
for 2nd and even 3rd entries, which are leveraged to recoup losses
of earlier entries. Matt & Steve tell you when to enter AND
exit, which can be really hard to get right on your own. They do
have losing trades but in my experience they are extremely net
profitable. In 2022 my SPY System profits paid for well over 20
years of BPT. I've already paid for this year with the small number
of trades we've had... AND I missed two of the most profitable ones
due to vacation.
You do have to follow the SPY System entry protocol (take ALL
entries of a given trade) and trade size is therefore very
important. In my experience, the ideal situation is starting with
the right trade amount that will allow you to take up to 3
potential entries on the trade. Let's say you have 15k to trade
with (not invest...). You might allocate $2k to a first entry
knowing you might need to put in another $2k (or even $4k) for that
one trade. Then, if another trades triggers, you'd still have $9 in
your wallet to work with.
@fluffycone I think you might
I believe yesterday's KISS entry on Amazon at 187,44 was ...
Posted by elementsix on 27th of Jun 2024 at 11:59 am
@fluffycone I think you might be better off starting with the SPY Systems rather than the KISS.
The challenge with the KISS is it's run on hundreds of stocks and is a single entry system with rather wide stops. Because of this, KISS will inherently have more losing trades because there are more trades in total. But risk is well defined with the set STS and KISS is designed to mitigate losses.
The bigger issue, as you noted, is you also need to cherrypick the KISS trades which further reduces the individual likelihood of profit, especially over small timeframes. I'd be willing to bet if you took ALL of the KISS trades (as a giant fund could), you'd be nicely profitable, over a longer timespan. But that's not feasible.
The SPY Systems trades are far less frequent (especially in this market...) but have been extensively backtested. The trades have a ton of logic built into the signals. And importantly, they allow for 2nd and even 3rd entries, which are leveraged to recoup losses of earlier entries. Matt & Steve tell you when to enter AND exit, which can be really hard to get right on your own. They do have losing trades but in my experience they are extremely net profitable. In 2022 my SPY System profits paid for well over 20 years of BPT. I've already paid for this year with the small number of trades we've had... AND I missed two of the most profitable ones due to vacation.
You do have to follow the SPY System entry protocol (take ALL entries of a given trade) and trade size is therefore very important. In my experience, the ideal situation is starting with the right trade amount that will allow you to take up to 3 potential entries on the trade. Let's say you have 15k to trade with (not invest...). You might allocate $2k to a first entry knowing you might need to put in another $2k (or even $4k) for that one trade. Then, if another trades triggers, you'd still have $9 in your wallet to work with.
Thank you so much for
Posted by fluffycone on 27th of Jun 2024 at 01:00 pm
Thank you so much for this insight.
"If you can't make money
Posted by brophy on 27th of Jun 2024 at 01:02 pm
"If you can't make money out of the leading active issues, you are not going to make money out of the stock market as a whole." Jesse Livermore