Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 09:27 pm
No, it's not a get rich quick scheme. Unlike the mean
reversion systems, these High Perf KISS systems have lower avg.
winning percentages even though overall returns are Awesome.
For example, there could be 5 or more losing trades in a row
(although small drawdowns) with some of them before a bonafide
trend is established. I can see some people getting
frustrated with that but that tells me they have unrealistic
expectations about trading or they haven't been around long enough.
In the late 90s I used to intern for John Bollinger, inventor
of the Bollinger Bands, and he told me "if a trader has a batting
average of .66, that is amazing." In my own trading, I stop
out quite often with small (hopefully) losses. That is the
nature of trend-following trading (the KISS systems) versus mean
reversion trading. Also, it would be interesting to see the
stats for such things like NVDA in the future and how the High Perf
KISS adapts to a bear market w/that security and how the stats for
something like GDX could possibly improve if we are indeed in a
secular precious metals bull.
But yeah, one has to make decisions on portfolio allocation-
for example, in the High Perf KISS, there are several ways to trade
the S&P 500: 3 timeframes to trade SPY (78 min, 130 min, etc),
2 timeframes for SSO, and 3 timeframes for UPRO. The way I
would initially do it is to look at correlations between the
different available options among the High Perf KISS and construct
a lesser-correlated portfolio of securities, for example, SPY,
YINN, ERX, etc. I wouldn't trade both MSFT and QQQ together,
for example. I don't know what others use for correlation
analysis (there used to be one from Sector SPDR but they don't have
it anymore), but I use the Correlation indicator in Stockcharts.com
to look at correlations between 2 securities using different time
periods (SPY vs YINN for example below). This is what I would
initially do. But hey, if one has a giant account and don't
mind the high correlations between MSFT/QQQ, then more power to
them.
Posted by jonesy85 on 21st of Jun 2024 at 09:15 am
Matt which of the timeframes on Upro, SSO has the best long term
results? I guess less is best for me, hard to trade to many
positions and not get overwhelmed.
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No, it's not a get
High Performance KISS systems update
Posted by skwan1940 on 20th of Jun 2024 at 09:27 pm
No, it's not a get rich quick scheme. Unlike the mean reversion systems, these High Perf KISS systems have lower avg. winning percentages even though overall returns are Awesome. For example, there could be 5 or more losing trades in a row (although small drawdowns) with some of them before a bonafide trend is established. I can see some people getting frustrated with that but that tells me they have unrealistic expectations about trading or they haven't been around long enough. In the late 90s I used to intern for John Bollinger, inventor of the Bollinger Bands, and he told me "if a trader has a batting average of .66, that is amazing." In my own trading, I stop out quite often with small (hopefully) losses. That is the nature of trend-following trading (the KISS systems) versus mean reversion trading. Also, it would be interesting to see the stats for such things like NVDA in the future and how the High Perf KISS adapts to a bear market w/that security and how the stats for something like GDX could possibly improve if we are indeed in a secular precious metals bull.
But yeah, one has to make decisions on portfolio allocation- for example, in the High Perf KISS, there are several ways to trade the S&P 500: 3 timeframes to trade SPY (78 min, 130 min, etc), 2 timeframes for SSO, and 3 timeframes for UPRO. The way I would initially do it is to look at correlations between the different available options among the High Perf KISS and construct a lesser-correlated portfolio of securities, for example, SPY, YINN, ERX, etc. I wouldn't trade both MSFT and QQQ together, for example. I don't know what others use for correlation analysis (there used to be one from Sector SPDR but they don't have it anymore), but I use the Correlation indicator in Stockcharts.com to look at correlations between 2 securities using different time periods (SPY vs YINN for example below). This is what I would initially do. But hey, if one has a giant account and don't mind the high correlations between MSFT/QQQ, then more power to them.
Matt which of the timeframes
Posted by jonesy85 on 21st of Jun 2024 at 09:15 am
Matt which of the timeframes on Upro, SSO has the best long term results? I guess less is best for me, hard to trade to many positions and not get overwhelmed.