Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:06 am
I'm definitely the one Steve called out in the newsletter as
being short, I'm such an idiot!. I've blown up my account like I
know better than all the experienced traders here.
I've lost so much that I'm frozen on what to do, I've been
saying for months that I'm too late now to go long and it keeps
getting worse.
If I go long now, should I just set my stops at the current STS
and move on with my life?
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:24 am
First order of business is to stop the bleeding. The timing is
tricky, but it's well past due. What you could do is wait until the
3rd half hour of the day when there is often a pullback and then
set a stop below the low of SPXS, or whatever your short instrument
is. Since it's hard for you to hit the sell button, let the market
take you out if it goes against you more. Then scale into some new
issues from the STS tables. I bought DDOG after hours yesterday,
and it's coming off the bottom, not a high flyer, which seems like
it might be your style. But figure out what kind of stocks you want
to own in this bullish environment.
Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:52 am
Thanks for the response and good advice Mastermind! I actually
am in SPXS and I just need to swallow my pride and sell, probably
before JP takes this to the moon this afternoon.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:25 am
JPOW adjusting speech and strategy on Q&A - this move gives
him top cover to be more hawkish. He knows better than anyone
that the wealth effect is inflationary so he's got to balance the
scales. Spiking higher at the apex of rising wedges and all time
highs and then telling people policy is restrictive starts to erode
credibility (but I did call the spike up and out of the
wedges...ice cream cones melting in zero g)
Unemployment rising and the rich partying in the streets.
History never repeats but the story only changes slightly each time
as cultures always inevitably slip to the left and the wealth
divide explodes wider.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:46 am
Regression prediction indicator had SPX at 5700 by mid Aug, but
that seems bearish. CNBC is in party mode with rate cuts
incoming talks...because the market is parabolic so we really need
a boost.
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:18 am
Sucks when you get caught like that. That's why it's called a
squeeze. It doesn't make any sense except that they caught a ton of
people off side back in late October 23 and they won't let the
pressure off until most throw in the towel...then it's likely to
reverse hard. They will then blame it on whatever news happens to
print that day but it will simply be the end of the squeeze (not
like announcers on CNBC understand that''s what's been going on).
Same thing is happening world wide....but DAX is the poster child.
If I was in that position I wouldn't go long with any STS's
that are too wide. You don't want to add injury to injury by going
long now and then potentially incurring a 10% drop to the
STS. But you can find ones on the list that are much tighter or
wait until they are tighter then get in. That's just me. Lots of
approaches possible.
Keep in mind that inflation inflates (asset prices) and it
works the other way also. We're still hot relative to target
but if they trend is really down (doubtful with these spending
levels but the economy is shit without Gov spending so maybe they
can't keep it propped up with more and more contracts to NVDA and
Google). If inflation really does cool, the market will cool also.
Today the market is betting on inflation above target (great
for equity prices) and ALSO easy money incoming (also great for
equity prices). If the CPI drops much further, the shit will hit
the fan.
I'm definitely the one Steve
Raise stops if trading long
Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:06 am
I'm definitely the one Steve called out in the newsletter as being short, I'm such an idiot!. I've blown up my account like I know better than all the experienced traders here.
I've lost so much that I'm frozen on what to do, I've been saying for months that I'm too late now to go long and it keeps getting worse.
If I go long now, should I just set my stops at the current STS and move on with my life?
We've all been there. You
Posted by tradeit007 on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:46 am
We've all been there. You can certainly go long, but you don't have to go long now.
First order of business is
Posted by mastermind on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:24 am
First order of business is to stop the bleeding. The timing is tricky, but it's well past due. What you could do is wait until the 3rd half hour of the day when there is often a pullback and then set a stop below the low of SPXS, or whatever your short instrument is. Since it's hard for you to hit the sell button, let the market take you out if it goes against you more. Then scale into some new issues from the STS tables. I bought DDOG after hours yesterday, and it's coming off the bottom, not a high flyer, which seems like it might be your style. But figure out what kind of stocks you want to own in this bullish environment.
Thanks for the response and
Posted by icecoldjones on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:52 am
Thanks for the response and good advice Mastermind! I actually am in SPXS and I just need to swallow my pride and sell, probably before JP takes this to the moon this afternoon.
JPOW adjusting speech and strategy
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:25 am
JPOW adjusting speech and strategy on Q&A - this move gives him top cover to be more hawkish. He knows better than anyone that the wealth effect is inflationary so he's got to balance the scales. Spiking higher at the apex of rising wedges and all time highs and then telling people policy is restrictive starts to erode credibility (but I did call the spike up and out of the wedges...ice cream cones melting in zero g)
Unemployment rising and the rich partying in the streets. History never repeats but the story only changes slightly each time as cultures always inevitably slip to the left and the wealth divide explodes wider.
Check withAI to see what
Posted by ruidoso on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:44 am
Check withAI to see what he can say, to juice it more.....
Regression prediction indicator had SPX
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:46 am
Regression prediction indicator had SPX at 5700 by mid Aug, but that seems bearish. CNBC is in party mode with rate cuts incoming talks...because the market is parabolic so we really need a boost.
6K soon ...
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Jun 2024 at 10:52 am
6K soon ...
Sucks when you get caught
Posted by DigiNomad on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:18 am
Sucks when you get caught like that. That's why it's called a squeeze. It doesn't make any sense except that they caught a ton of people off side back in late October 23 and they won't let the pressure off until most throw in the towel...then it's likely to reverse hard. They will then blame it on whatever news happens to print that day but it will simply be the end of the squeeze (not like announcers on CNBC understand that''s what's been going on). Same thing is happening world wide....but DAX is the poster child.
If I was in that position I wouldn't go long with any STS's that are too wide. You don't want to add injury to injury by going long now and then potentially incurring a 10% drop to the STS. But you can find ones on the list that are much tighter or wait until they are tighter then get in. That's just me. Lots of approaches possible.
Keep in mind that inflation inflates (asset prices) and it works the other way also. We're still hot relative to target but if they trend is really down (doubtful with these spending levels but the economy is shit without Gov spending so maybe they can't keep it propped up with more and more contracts to NVDA and Google). If inflation really does cool, the market will cool also. Today the market is betting on inflation above target (great for equity prices) and ALSO easy money incoming (also great for equity prices). If the CPI drops much further, the shit will hit the fan.
Yep I have hard time
Posted by srusso1 on 12th of Jun 2024 at 09:12 am
Yep I have hard time staying long always looking for pull back system helps with that.