There is always a bearish and a bullish scenario in play. However, when was the last time the bearish probability played out in the medium term, even when most of us deemed it a much higher probability? Maybe 2022? But even then, I remember that we favored additional downside when that downturn turned, and it turned hard.  All bullish probabilities in this environment probably need to be computed and then bumped up by 30 - 50%.  This is mostly why I think Tom Lee is secretly basing most of his calls on the probability of continued currency debasement (which is essentially 100%).  It's the only way I get the math to work.