regarding NVDA earnings - comments from Steve which sounds
reasonable to me, is that the reaction move is likely to screw
short-term option traders, basically whatever move it does up or
down, will likely be less of a reaction than people expect and the
very high premium on the options wouldn't make much even if you
guessed the right direction
like I said this morning about our call for a muted NVDA
reaction, which played out. Digi you were way too conservative
going all the way out to 1300, I just didn't see that happening.
But selling calls was the best, or selling puts. As I commented
this morning, short term call buyers were likely screwed because of
the high premium that was backed into the call options so even
though the stock goes up, they don't make money or can even lose as
all that premium comes out tomorrow. But that high premium
was great for selling calls or puts - I just wouldn't have went all
the way to 1300. Anyway free money for ya!
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:59 pm
Yeah, but it's not like we haven't seen mega caps jump 25% on
blowout earnings in the money printing era since 2009. Even
if I was still safe by say 5% or so after a 20% plus jump, the
expiry is 2 days, not 1 so it could have gotten squeezy. I
just wanted to be in a spot that was so ridiculous that I could pay
for a couple nights out and still sleep tonight
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:08 am
Not all, but most professionals sell options, not buy them for
situations like we have today. They'll likely do fine on the sell
side although I feel like the immediate upside is 5% and the
downside is around 10% (confluence of MAs and anchored VWAPs). Just
another take among many you'll hear all day and have been hearing
all week. We'll see..
regarding NVDA earnings - comments
Nvdia tonight ....
Posted by matt on 22nd of May 2024 at 10:50 am
regarding NVDA earnings - comments from Steve which sounds reasonable to me, is that the reaction move is likely to screw short-term option traders, basically whatever move it does up or down, will likely be less of a reaction than people expect and the very high premium on the options wouldn't make much even if you guessed the right direction
we'll see....
like I said this morning
Posted by matt on 22nd of May 2024 at 07:08 pm
like I said this morning about our call for a muted NVDA reaction, which played out. Digi you were way too conservative going all the way out to 1300, I just didn't see that happening. But selling calls was the best, or selling puts. As I commented this morning, short term call buyers were likely screwed because of the high premium that was backed into the call options so even though the stock goes up, they don't make money or can even lose as all that premium comes out tomorrow. But that high premium was great for selling calls or puts - I just wouldn't have went all the way to 1300. Anyway free money for ya!
Yeah, but it's not like
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:59 pm
Yeah, but it's not like we haven't seen mega caps jump 25% on blowout earnings in the money printing era since 2009. Even if I was still safe by say 5% or so after a 20% plus jump, the expiry is 2 days, not 1 so it could have gotten squeezy. I just wanted to be in a spot that was so ridiculous that I could pay for a couple nights out and still sleep tonight
Not all, but most professionals
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:08 am
Not all, but most professionals sell options, not buy them for situations like we have today. They'll likely do fine on the sell side although I feel like the immediate upside is 5% and the downside is around 10% (confluence of MAs and anchored VWAPs). Just another take among many you'll hear all day and have been hearing all week. We'll see..
yeah wasn't referring to covered
Posted by matt on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:21 am
yeah wasn't referring to covered call sellers trying to get income (which when the option premium is high is a good strategy
was referring only to short-term option speculators
I wasn't referring to covered
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of May 2024 at 11:25 am
I wasn't referring to covered call selling either. More like selling naked call and puts and spreads on either side of the expected move.
Thanks Matt and Steve for
Posted by srusso1 on 22nd of May 2024 at 10:54 am
Thanks Matt and Steve for input on Option's