mdgfain - on DUST you can count 3 waves up so far, could be an
abc of a 4 then down again that would form a 5 wave divergent low,
or the lows are in and the move up is not complete and for now we
have 3 waves,
The wave count on gold counts as completed a couple weeks ago as
v of 5 unless that was a wave 3 on the daily and this is a wave
4
tough to say on DUST. I was a good trade off the low, as I
alway say the hardest part of trading is not first entering the
trade, but exits, exits are are far more difficult.
and yes depends on your trading style and strategy - a lot of
different variables basically
on the daily while DUST could come back down, if it make another
low that will form a heck of a MACD divergence.
otherwise I still think DUST will likely form sort of of higher
low here but we'll see
again there's never one easy answer, I know that it's difficult,
especially on exits, but also don't get frustrated if we can't tell
you exactly, and we are not allowed to give advice as it is. We can
say what we think or lean to and give options and analysis and
guidance but not trading advice
After reading Matt's thoughts on possible wave counts for gold
posted here, I decided to speculate wildly.
If we have completed a 5 wave move in gold implying that wave A
of an ABC structure is finished, I would be looking for a B wave
triple zigzag (in elliottwave terms) bull flag that would bottom
out somewhere in the $2220-$2150 area in 2-3 months. (The current
move up that started today would be a lower high.)
Gold miners would underperform and bottom slightly later than
gold somewhere around the 50% area on the BPGDM.
This is total speculation and the usual disclaimers apply but
I would welcome thoughts and perhaps coverage in an upcoming
newsletter.
just like ZSL was a great trade/hedge - again taking profits or
keeping some is the tougher question, I had exited mine this
morning and I'm now flat.
that said, another trader who is deciding to hold his SLV for a
long term hold may elect to keep the ZSL as a hedge if he thinks
precious metals are in for a 2 or 3 month consolidation period
before running up again.
or a hybrid trader may sell 1/2 to lock in gains and keep the
other 1/2 with a stop
last comment: again we should all try to devise our own trading
plan, and that may be multiple plans depending on the accounts you
are trading, such as a 401K IRA or a trading account, you may have
different plans and trading styles for them
The mechanical systems, mean reversion and KISS systems follow
hard rules and discipline. We should probably all be more
like the systems as a rule based strategy approach is the best
approach to trading. The systems follow their strategy and rules to
a tee, whereas we human's tend to waiver and get wishy washy and
emotional - it's not easy to set an exact set of rules like the
systems, but we should all try to have more of a systematic
approach to our own subjective trades, and that starts with sitting
down and devising a trading plan and style that fits you - and of
course that's easier said than done and can take years sometimes
and you go through modifications as you learn and go through
experiences
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mdgfain - on DUST you
Steve, Is it a good time to sell DUST?
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2024 at 12:16 pm
mdgfain - on DUST you can count 3 waves up so far, could be an abc of a 4 then down again that would form a 5 wave divergent low, or the lows are in and the move up is not complete and for now we have 3 waves,
The wave count on gold counts as completed a couple weeks ago as v of 5 unless that was a wave 3 on the daily and this is a wave 4
tough to say on DUST. I was a good trade off the low, as I alway say the hardest part of trading is not first entering the trade, but exits, exits are are far more difficult.
and yes depends on your trading style and strategy - a lot of different variables basically
on the daily while DUST could come back down, if it make another low that will form a heck of a MACD divergence.
otherwise I still think DUST will likely form sort of of higher low here but we'll see
again there's never one easy answer, I know that it's difficult, especially on exits, but also don't get frustrated if we can't tell you exactly, and we are not allowed to give advice as it is. We can say what we think or lean to and give options and analysis and guidance but not trading advice
After reading Matt's thoughts on
Posted by Ed_M on 23rd of Apr 2024 at 08:04 pm
After reading Matt's thoughts on possible wave counts for gold posted here, I decided to speculate wildly.
If we have completed a 5 wave move in gold implying that wave A of an ABC structure is finished, I would be looking for a B wave triple zigzag (in elliottwave terms) bull flag that would bottom out somewhere in the $2220-$2150 area in 2-3 months. (The current move up that started today would be a lower high.)
Gold miners would underperform and bottom slightly later than gold somewhere around the 50% area on the BPGDM.
This is total speculation and the usual disclaimers apply but I would welcome thoughts and perhaps coverage in an upcoming newsletter.
just like ZSL was a
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2024 at 12:20 pm
just like ZSL was a great trade/hedge - again taking profits or keeping some is the tougher question, I had exited mine this morning and I'm now flat.
that said, another trader who is deciding to hold his SLV for a long term hold may elect to keep the ZSL as a hedge if he thinks precious metals are in for a 2 or 3 month consolidation period before running up again.
or a hybrid trader may sell 1/2 to lock in gains and keep the other 1/2 with a stop
and another trader like my may have exited it all
the point is, it's never one easy answer on exits
last comment: again we should
Posted by matt on 23rd of Apr 2024 at 12:29 pm
last comment: again we should all try to devise our own trading plan, and that may be multiple plans depending on the accounts you are trading, such as a 401K IRA or a trading account, you may have different plans and trading styles for them
The mechanical systems, mean reversion and KISS systems follow hard rules and discipline. We should probably all be more like the systems as a rule based strategy approach is the best approach to trading. The systems follow their strategy and rules to a tee, whereas we human's tend to waiver and get wishy washy and emotional - it's not easy to set an exact set of rules like the systems, but we should all try to have more of a systematic approach to our own subjective trades, and that starts with sitting down and devising a trading plan and style that fits you - and of course that's easier said than done and can take years sometimes and you go through modifications as you learn and go through experiences