Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 12:35 pm
CRE and KRE - as is always the case with large economic issues,
they are hiding the truth from us to prevent panic. It's not wrong
to do that - panic is bad for everyone, but it's still important to
dig past the surface so that you don't get blindsided with your
retirement money in IWM with no stop loss in place, etc.
Think back to previous crises and most came with no warning,
except from quacks like me that everyone called a pessimist and or
conspiracy theorist until everything came crashing down....happened
to me going into the dot com crash and the GFC.....I took serious
heat for my views both times. The pattern doesn't include a
warning from people you want to believe (but probably shouldn't).
Note: I'm not predicting a major crisis this time. World Govs have
figured out how to print and inflate their way out of
anything...including shutting down the world economy for
months.
CRE and KRE - as
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 12:35 pm
CRE and KRE - as is always the case with large economic issues, they are hiding the truth from us to prevent panic. It's not wrong to do that - panic is bad for everyone, but it's still important to dig past the surface so that you don't get blindsided with your retirement money in IWM with no stop loss in place, etc.
This is behind a paywall, but very good. Many on substack have written about / outlined this article as well: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/calling-cre-manageable-is-just-wishful-thinking-macro-view?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Think back to previous crises and most came with no warning, except from quacks like me that everyone called a pessimist and or conspiracy theorist until everything came crashing down....happened to me going into the dot com crash and the GFC.....I took serious heat for my views both times. The pattern doesn't include a warning from people you want to believe (but probably shouldn't). Note: I'm not predicting a major crisis this time. World Govs have figured out how to print and inflate their way out of anything...including shutting down the world economy for months.
news.bloomberglaw.com
Calling CRE ‘Manageable’ Is Just Wishful Thinking: Macro View
Policymakers calling the roughly $1 trillion of commercial real estate debt coming due this year “manageable” may regret it. If defaults topple hundreds of US banks — as the pessimists predict — the impact on markets and the economy will be tumultuous.