ES futures are down 15 points, while Nasdaq NQ futures are down
32
The
Asian/Pacificmarkets leaned down. Japan did well,
but China, South Korea, Australia and Singapore were weak.
Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastcurrently lean
up. Denmark, Turkey, Greece, Spain and Italy are up; Finland and
Sweden are down
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. and copper are
down. Gold is flat; silver is down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha
All about the data
Coming off a sizzling jobs report, which showed non-farm
payrolls accelerating by 353,000 in January, investors tuned into
the latest commentary from Jay Powell, who appeared on a 60 Minutes
episode aired on Sunday. The Fed Chair was quick to highlight the
robust U.S. economy and path towards a soft landing, as well as
inflation that has come down sharply over the past year. Central
bank watchers had much to digest in his latest remarks, with much
of it echoing comments he made at his press conference on
Wednesday, when the Fed kept its policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% and
dented expectations that it would cut rates in March.
Is inflation dead? "I wouldn't go quite so far as that. We're
making good progress, [but] the job is not done. Restoring price
stability means inflation is low and predictable and people don’t
have to think about it in their daily lives."
Why not cut the rates now? "Well, we have a strong economy and
feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce
interest rates carefully. Growth is going on at a solid pace. The
labor market is strong: 3.7% unemployment. And inflation is coming
down."
What is it you're looking at? "It's not that the data aren't
good enough. We just want to see more good data along those lines.
It doesn't need to be better than what we've seen, or even as good.
It just needs to be good. And so, we do expect to see that. And
that's why almost every single person on the Federal Open Market
Committee believes that it will be appropriate for us to reduce
interest rates this year."
What's the danger of moving too soon? "Danger of moving too soon
is that the job’s not quite done and that the really good readings
we’ve had for the last six months somehow turn out not to be a true
indicator of where inflation's heading."
What is the danger of moving too late? "Policy would be too
tight and that could easily weigh on economic activity and on the
labor market."
Are you committed to getting all the way to 2% before you cut
the rates? "No, no. That’s not what we say at all, no. We’re
committed to returning inflation to 2% over time. I've said that we
wouldn’t wait to get to 2% to cut rates."
Is the national debt a danger to the economy in your review? "In
the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The U.S.
federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that
just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it
is unsustainable. I don't think that's at all controversial. And I
think we know that we have to get back on a sustainable fiscal
path."
Other highlights: Powell doesn't expect that the slump in
commercial real estate will lead to a banking crisis. Some smaller
banks may collapse or have to merge with other banks, but he
doesn't foresee the CRE market triggering a 2008-like financial
crisis. Powell also flagged geopolitical risks as the greatest
threat to the world economy, as recently identified in a Wall
Street Breakfast poll, but said that engagement with the world and
American leadership could benefit security and economic
arrangements. Take the latest WSB survey here. (62 comments)
Ready for the big game
The 2024 Super Bowl is setting up to be a jackpot for the Las
Vegas Strip and sports betting operators. The perfect mix of sports
betting legalization in new states and a high-interest game
featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers has some
forecasters predicting that legal wagers could top $1.35B, while
headlines involving Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs star Travis
Kelce could also prove a significant factor. Meanwhile, hotel room
rates have soared in Las Vegas since the Chiefs and 49ers nailed
down their spots in the Super Bowl, and it looks like high-end
consumers are not pulling back on spending. Check out some stocks
linked to all the action. (42 comments)
Stabilization fund?
While no specifics have yet been disclosed, Chinese regulators
are pledging support for the country's beleaguered stock market.
The development comes amid a steep selloff in mainland Chinese
stocks, with the benchmark CSI 300 index (SHSZ300) notching a fresh
five-year low last week. The index was down 6.3% in January, a
record sixth-straight losing month, as macro concerns overshadowed
any hopes of a significant rescue package from Beijing. Elsewhere,
former President Donald Trump said in an interview over the weekend
that he would consider tariffs on imported Chinese goods of more
than 60%. (24 comments)
Shipping and handling
The U.S. has vowed to step up its retaliatory strikes against
Houthi rebels and Iran's proxies in the Middle East if attacks on
ships in the Red Sea continue, though President Biden confirmed he
"is not looking for a wider war." Dozens of strikes were leveled
against Houthi targets in Yemen this weekend, adding to the wave of
unilateral American attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria and
Iraq in response to last month's drone attack that killed three
U.S. soldiers. Tensions in the Red Sea region have prompted
shipping companies to reroute their vessels around Africa, leading
to delays impacting companies across sectors including automakers,
energy firms, and even retailers. (4 comments)
Today's Economic Calendar
- 9:45 PMI Composite Final
- 10:00 ISM Service Index
- 2:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
Other News
- U.S. House speaker slams Senate's $118B bill on border and
Ukraine.
- Goldman Sachs compares the Magnificent 7 and the Tech
Bubble 5.
- Grocery prices in focus as FTC weighs Albertsons
(ACI)-Kroger deal.
- The stocks-bonds script flips as global debt hits a new
record.
- What NY Community Bancorp's (NYCB) rout means for midcap
banks.
- LNG export project freeze expected to drive up emissions,
hurt security.
-This analyst thinks AI may be more than a buzzword for
Shopify (SHOP).
- Apple (AAPL) was the least shorted S&P 500 IT stock in
mid-January.
- 2024 re-election bid: Biden wins South Carolina’s
Democratic primary.
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Good morning, Happy Monday and I hope you had a good weekend
Posted by matt on 5th of Feb 2024 at 09:08 am
ES futures are down 15 points, while Nasdaq NQ futures are down 32
The Asian/Pacificmarkets leaned down. Japan did well, but China, South Korea, Australia and Singapore were weak. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastcurrently lean up. Denmark, Turkey, Greece, Spain and Italy are up; Finland and Sweden are down
The dollar is up. Oil is up; copper is down. and copper are down. Gold is flat; silver is down. Bonds are down.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha
All about the data
Coming off a sizzling jobs report, which showed non-farm payrolls accelerating by 353,000 in January, investors tuned into the latest commentary from Jay Powell, who appeared on a 60 Minutes episode aired on Sunday. The Fed Chair was quick to highlight the robust U.S. economy and path towards a soft landing, as well as inflation that has come down sharply over the past year. Central bank watchers had much to digest in his latest remarks, with much of it echoing comments he made at his press conference on Wednesday, when the Fed kept its policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% and dented expectations that it would cut rates in March.
Is inflation dead? "I wouldn't go quite so far as that. We're making good progress, [but] the job is not done. Restoring price stability means inflation is low and predictable and people don’t have to think about it in their daily lives."
Why not cut the rates now? "Well, we have a strong economy and feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully. Growth is going on at a solid pace. The labor market is strong: 3.7% unemployment. And inflation is coming down."
What is it you're looking at? "It's not that the data aren't good enough. We just want to see more good data along those lines. It doesn't need to be better than what we've seen, or even as good. It just needs to be good. And so, we do expect to see that. And that's why almost every single person on the Federal Open Market Committee believes that it will be appropriate for us to reduce interest rates this year."
What's the danger of moving too soon? "Danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done and that the really good readings we’ve had for the last six months somehow turn out not to be a true indicator of where inflation's heading."
What is the danger of moving too late? "Policy would be too tight and that could easily weigh on economic activity and on the labor market."
Are you committed to getting all the way to 2% before you cut the rates? "No, no. That’s not what we say at all, no. We’re committed to returning inflation to 2% over time. I've said that we wouldn’t wait to get to 2% to cut rates."
Is the national debt a danger to the economy in your review? "In the long run, the U.S. is on an unsustainable fiscal path. The U.S. federal government is on an unsustainable fiscal path. And that just means that the debt is growing faster than the economy. So, it is unsustainable. I don't think that's at all controversial. And I think we know that we have to get back on a sustainable fiscal path."
Other highlights: Powell doesn't expect that the slump in commercial real estate will lead to a banking crisis. Some smaller banks may collapse or have to merge with other banks, but he doesn't foresee the CRE market triggering a 2008-like financial crisis. Powell also flagged geopolitical risks as the greatest threat to the world economy, as recently identified in a Wall Street Breakfast poll, but said that engagement with the world and American leadership could benefit security and economic arrangements. Take the latest WSB survey here. (62 comments)
Ready for the big game
The 2024 Super Bowl is setting up to be a jackpot for the Las Vegas Strip and sports betting operators. The perfect mix of sports betting legalization in new states and a high-interest game featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers has some forecasters predicting that legal wagers could top $1.35B, while headlines involving Taylor Swift and Kansas City Chiefs star Travis Kelce could also prove a significant factor. Meanwhile, hotel room rates have soared in Las Vegas since the Chiefs and 49ers nailed down their spots in the Super Bowl, and it looks like high-end consumers are not pulling back on spending. Check out some stocks linked to all the action. (42 comments)
Stabilization fund?
While no specifics have yet been disclosed, Chinese regulators are pledging support for the country's beleaguered stock market. The development comes amid a steep selloff in mainland Chinese stocks, with the benchmark CSI 300 index (SHSZ300) notching a fresh five-year low last week. The index was down 6.3% in January, a record sixth-straight losing month, as macro concerns overshadowed any hopes of a significant rescue package from Beijing. Elsewhere, former President Donald Trump said in an interview over the weekend that he would consider tariffs on imported Chinese goods of more than 60%. (24 comments)
Shipping and handling
The U.S. has vowed to step up its retaliatory strikes against Houthi rebels and Iran's proxies in the Middle East if attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue, though President Biden confirmed he "is not looking for a wider war." Dozens of strikes were leveled against Houthi targets in Yemen this weekend, adding to the wave of unilateral American attacks on Iran-linked targets in Syria and Iraq in response to last month's drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers. Tensions in the Red Sea region have prompted shipping companies to reroute their vessels around Africa, leading to delays impacting companies across sectors including automakers, energy firms, and even retailers. (4 comments)
Today's Economic Calendar
- 9:45 PMI Composite Final
- 10:00 ISM Service Index
- 2:00 PM Fed’s Bostic Speech
Other News
- U.S. House speaker slams Senate's $118B bill on border and Ukraine.
- Goldman Sachs compares the Magnificent 7 and the Tech Bubble 5.
- Grocery prices in focus as FTC weighs Albertsons (ACI)-Kroger deal.
- The stocks-bonds script flips as global debt hits a new record.
- What NY Community Bancorp's (NYCB) rout means for midcap banks.
- LNG export project freeze expected to drive up emissions, hurt security.
-This analyst thinks AI may be more than a buzzword for Shopify (SHOP).
- Apple (AAPL) was the least shorted S&P 500 IT stock in mid-January.
- 2024 re-election bid: Biden wins South Carolina’s Democratic primary.