Chat GPT & Bard: I

    Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Dec 2023 at 11:35 pm

    Chat GPT & Bard: I tried this search on both AI's, and got nothing useful in return:

    Prior to January 2022, How many times has the S&P 500 risen 16% or greater over the span of 8 weeks?

    I specified the date of Jan 22 because that's when Chat GPT's training cut off. Anyway, turns out neither of them can analyze or even access historical S&P data yet (I can't wait until they can!). The idea for the search came from someone on TV saying that the market rises 8 weeks in a row every few years...so it's rare but not that rare. I figured they were missing the true rarity by asking the wrong question. As it turns out, that is accurate - what we've just experienced is much more rare than something that happens every few years.

    Any ideas out there about a publicly available AI that can answer this type of question?

    Anway, to get at the answer manually I created an "Info line" on a TradingView chart to match the slope (time) and length (represents percent gained because I set the chart to %) and went over 20 years of data looking for matches to this time period (it was much quicker than pulling the data from Fred and writing an algorithm to analyze it). I actually found one match coming off the lows in 2020 when we were setting records for money printing. Other than that, the info line for the last 8 weeks looks like a complete aberration....nothing in the last 20 years comes close to the slope of gains over the last 8 weeks...not even in the same universe.  I honestly did not expect to find a single match, but it's interesting that I did. This suggests to me that there is still a LOT of stimulus flowing through the system.  

    The part about the info

    Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Dec 2023 at 12:21 am

    The part about the info line is incorrect. I didn't realize that the scale slides as the line is moved. I'll redo the analysis tomorrow. 

    This is what I get.

    Posted by jhbernstein on 27th of Dec 2023 at 09:10 am

    This is what I get. I'm showing since 82. I ran it back to 1927 (full data set) but I'm not sure that's terribly helpful. Also only included through last friday, so this week most likely will make the list.

    jhbernstein - this is perfect.

    Posted by DigiNomad on 27th of Dec 2023 at 02:04 pm

    jhbernstein - this is perfect. Thanks! I knew that averaging 2% per week for 8 weeks (16% total in 8 weeks) was rare, but this clearly shows the other times it's happened...all very notable time periods in market history. 

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