Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Dec 2023 at 04:24 pm
SPX Weekly - 2 straight closes outside of the upper bollinger
bands! I went back a long way and see very few examples where this
has happened in the past. The last time looks like 2018 and it
ended with a pullback from 2880 to 2545. 2018 is also a good
example of how these squeezes can extend more than most think
possible. Back then it took 3 straight closes above the bollinger
band to trigger the 340 point correction (more than 10% back then).
FWIW, the last green candle was a doozy.....blow off top.
Market flirted with the upper bollinger band quite a bit from
2016 - 2018...but before that it closes above were was almost non
existent until you get back to the go go days in 2004 (almost 20
years ago). For most of the time in between, a touch of the
upper bollinger band led to at least a small correction. This
time is somewhat unique for a lot of reasons, one of which is that
I believe we set the all time record for speed between a weekly
close under the lower bollinger band to a close above the upper
bollinger band.
Stats are always interesting and gives no clear direction. One
stat since 2006 indicates whenever December finished with >2%
return, the following Jan is well contained around 1% return. If
>5% return, the following Jan is actually negative.
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SPX Weekly - 2 straight
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Dec 2023 at 04:24 pm
SPX Weekly - 2 straight closes outside of the upper bollinger bands! I went back a long way and see very few examples where this has happened in the past. The last time looks like 2018 and it ended with a pullback from 2880 to 2545. 2018 is also a good example of how these squeezes can extend more than most think possible. Back then it took 3 straight closes above the bollinger band to trigger the 340 point correction (more than 10% back then). FWIW, the last green candle was a doozy.....blow off top.
Market flirted with the upper bollinger band quite a bit from 2016 - 2018...but before that it closes above were was almost non existent until you get back to the go go days in 2004 (almost 20 years ago). For most of the time in between, a touch of the upper bollinger band led to at least a small correction. This time is somewhat unique for a lot of reasons, one of which is that I believe we set the all time record for speed between a weekly close under the lower bollinger band to a close above the upper bollinger band.
I missed one - we
Posted by DigiNomad on 22nd of Dec 2023 at 04:42 pm
I missed one - we closed out 2021 with 2 weekly closes above the bollinger bands. The move down started the first day of 2022.
Stats are always interesting and
Posted by vsunil on 22nd of Dec 2023 at 05:41 pm
Stats are always interesting and gives no clear direction. One stat since 2006 indicates whenever December finished with >2% return, the following Jan is well contained around 1% return. If >5% return, the following Jan is actually negative.