Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Dec 2023 at 04:28 pm
Ah, when I said nothing burger, I meant relative the the VIX.
I'm working on it manually now (VIX chart overlay). Looks like the
SEP expiration happened in a VIX uptrend and that Friday marked a
short term top (VIX down hard on Monday). Checking other months.
Ok, went back month by month to June so far. June Vix fell.
July definitely was a nothing burger (from a VIX
perspective)...even looks like it lead to a spike low. Does VIX
always expire on Tuesday? If that's correct, it looks like most of
the recent months a VIX uptrend started a few days leading into the
expiration and ended a few days later...it does appear to be
statistically significant, but that's just from eyeballing it.
Would have to have the data set with the exact expiration dates
over a decade or so to actually compute the significance. Also, we
without a doubt know that the VIX / SPX inverse correlation is
statistically significant, but I wonder if that holds true for
relatively small moves that take place over a matter of days?
We see divergences all the time, and now that I think about
it (warning....faulty memory again)....it seems like divergences
have been common around expirations.
Ah, when I said nothing
VIX Expiration Dates
Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Dec 2023 at 04:28 pm
Ah, when I said nothing burger, I meant relative the the VIX. I'm working on it manually now (VIX chart overlay). Looks like the SEP expiration happened in a VIX uptrend and that Friday marked a short term top (VIX down hard on Monday). Checking other months.
Ok, went back month by month to June so far. June Vix fell. July definitely was a nothing burger (from a VIX perspective)...even looks like it lead to a spike low. Does VIX always expire on Tuesday? If that's correct, it looks like most of the recent months a VIX uptrend started a few days leading into the expiration and ended a few days later...it does appear to be statistically significant, but that's just from eyeballing it. Would have to have the data set with the exact expiration dates over a decade or so to actually compute the significance. Also, we without a doubt know that the VIX / SPX inverse correlation is statistically significant, but I wonder if that holds true for relatively small moves that take place over a matter of days? We see divergences all the time, and now that I think about it (warning....faulty memory again)....it seems like divergences have been common around expirations.
No problem - sorry for
Posted by steve on 20th of Dec 2023 at 04:45 pm
No problem - sorry for the confusion - I'm like a fish out of water on my first day back