I've spent the last couple

    Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Dec 2023 at 01:39 pm

    I've spent the last couple of weeks buying naked SPX calls at any little minor support and then immediately setting tight stops to test out different stop methods.  I'm sure I'm not alone in that I have a mindblowing amount in notional long SPX exposure that I'm watching like a hawk to pull off when the bid finally disappears. I have honestly never used stops on options but this is NEXT LEVEL type exposure. I first tested simple stops, but they put a market order in when the midpoint is touched and I got filled at the bid (not good when trading SPX which has .60 cent wide spreads on a good day). I tried a bunch of stop types, but now I'm back to the stop limit order.  I now set the stop to trigger using the midpoint method and then give it .10 to .20 below the trigger for the limit. It's working very well in daily testing (this environment has been ideal for testing stop strategies without much risk of loss). Unfortunately, I won't know if my limits are wide enough until there are trillions in notional exposure all trying to find the door at the same moment simply from taking profits on massive amounts of long calls (it's not like holding is an option). When it finally happens, it's probably going to be madness. I wouldn't be surprised to see spreads widen out to $300 wide and still be hard to get filled.

    *Has anyone else noticed that the liquidity in SPX hasn't been great during the later stages of the rally? I used to get hit at the bid/ask midpoint like it was a rule...maybe with a .05 adjustment here and there. That hasn't been the case very recently. 

    Interesting I've just scaping trades

    Posted by srusso1 on 20th of Dec 2023 at 01:47 pm

    Interesting I've just scaping trades up here way to nervous to hold.

    I'm probably beyond nervous at

    Posted by DigiNomad on 20th of Dec 2023 at 01:55 pm

    I'm probably beyond nervous at this point, but sort of stuck holding outsized positions both ways.  If the rug pull happens outside of RTH, I can still manually exit SPX (it trades 23 hours per day), but stops don't work outside of RTH (sorry, sleep).  It won't be catastrophic because I'm loaded up on both sides....but a really big win is somewhat dependent on being alert and catching the turn and not letting naked call gains evaporate.  *with trillions in net long / naked call exposure, the question of rug pull is not if, it's when. 

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