Good morning. Happy Monday. Steve is still in Mexico while the
rest of us sit and watch the market LOL
Futures in the
Statesare higher with ES futures up about 13
points
The
Asian/Pacificmarkets closed mostly down. Japan,
China, Hong Kong and Indonesia posted the biggest losses.
Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently
doing well. The UK, Denmark, Russia, Norway, Israel and Saudi
Arabia are up; Turkey and South Africa are down. Futures in the
Statespoint towards a positive open for the cash
market.
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down.
Gold and silver mixed a little changed. Bonds are split.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha...
On the high seas
2020 was COVID, and 2021 was the supply chain. 2022 was
inflation, and 2023 was interest rates. Now, the biggest investing
risk going into 2024 looks like it will be geopolitics. Traditional
relationships and alliances are breaking down, and a more polarized
world has given way to structural market risk. It can also be hard
to plan for such wildcards, though broad hedging and defensive
plays could play a key part in investing strategy for the new
year.
Snapshot: One such risk is already on full display, with
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen conducting repeated drone and
missile attacks on commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea. The
Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial shipping passage that facilitates
a sixth of world trade and is important to global seaborne
commodity shipments like crude oil. Insurance premiums have risen
as a result, and have even prompted the world's biggest container
shipping lines to avoid the Suez Canal by diverting their cargoes
toward the circuitous route around Africa. Among them are
Swiss-based MSC and French CMA CGM, as well as Danish A.P.
Moller-Maersk (OTCPK:AMKBY), German Hapag-Lloyd (OTCPK:HPGLY) and
Hong Kong-based OOCL (OTCPK:OROVY), whose stocks have climbed
8%-17% over the past week amid rising prices.
The Houthis had originally said they would target Israeli-linked
ships to show solidarity with Hamas, but that has since extended to
all ships en route to Israel, and the assaults have even continued
against other ships regardless of their destination. Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Israel on Monday to discuss the latest
developments and will travel to Bahrain and Qatar this week to
follow up on the talks. It comes as American troops in Iraq and
Syria have been targeted by Iranian-backed proxies over 90 times
since mid-October, and as the U.S. enters the coming year with its
smallest military force since 1940 (active-duty troops will drop to
1,284,500).
What's on the table? American ships like the USS Carney and
fellow destroyer USS Mason have been neutralizing threats in the
Red Sea since the start of the Hamas-Israel war, but a larger force
is now needed. The new plan appears to be an expansion of Combined
Task Force 153 into a broader maritime alliance that will initially
be called Operation Prosperity Guardian. The Pentagon is also
deliberating whether to directly strike Houthi military targets in
Yemen to protect maritime security, though until now there have
been fears of potentially fueling a broader conflict against Iran
and its proxies. Take the WSB survey.
Only ZEVs
Canada is moving ahead with its electrification plans, with new
rules expected to be issued tomorrow requiring all new passenger
cars sold in the country to be zero emissions by 2035. The
regulations are aimed at shortening wait times for EVs and ensuring
enough affordable zero-emission vehicles are available to meet the
demand. Canada wants ZEVs to represent 20% of all new car sales in
2026, 60% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. Brian Kingston, CEO of the
Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association that represents Ford
(F), Stellantis (STLA) and GM (GM), said stronger incentives are
needed to make ZEVs more affordable, instead of a mandate on "what
Canadians can and cannot buy." (11 comments)
Soft landing
Economists may have what to celebrate as inflation is projected
to near the Fed's 2% target next year without a recession or a
surge in unemployment, according to the Congressional Budget
Office. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.1% in 2024, reflecting
softer labor markets and slower increases in rents, but will tick
up to 2.2% in 2025. The CBO also expects real GDP growth to slow to
1.5% in 2024 amid a slowdown in consumption, investment, and
exports. SA Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller said traders
should be wary of the overly optimistic bullish sentiment even
though a soft landing is near, while Mott Capital Management
believes the Fed showed its cards too soon. (4 comments)
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 Housing Market Index
- IPOs 2024: Watch for Fanatics, Reddit, Shein, and more.
- Chuck E. Cheese exploring sale, may be worth over $1B.
- Apple (AAPL) facing expansion of China iPhone ban.
- Scandinavian investors join Tesla (TSLA) labor fight.
- Elon Musk: Don't shun fossil fuels amid green transition.
- KKR buys $7.2B RV loan portfolio from BMO Financial.
- Fashion executives see upcoming uncertainty for the
industry.
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock outlook: What to expect next year.
- Alex Rodriguez's SPAC Slam to merge with Lynk Global.
- Redfin: U.S. housing market to shift in buyers’ favor in
2024.
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Good morning and happy Monday 12/18
Posted by matt on 18th of Dec 2023 at 09:15 am
Good morning. Happy Monday. Steve is still in Mexico while the rest of us sit and watch the market LOL
Futures in the Statesare higher with ES futures up about 13 points
The Asian/Pacificmarkets closed mostly down. Japan, China, Hong Kong and Indonesia posted the biggest losses. Europe, Africa and the Middle Eastare currently doing well. The UK, Denmark, Russia, Norway, Israel and Saudi Arabia are up; Turkey and South Africa are down. Futures in the Statespoint towards a positive open for the cash market.
The dollar is down. Oil is up; copper is down. Gold and silver mixed a little changed. Bonds are split.
Stories/News from Seeking Alpha...
On the high seas
2020 was COVID, and 2021 was the supply chain. 2022 was inflation, and 2023 was interest rates. Now, the biggest investing risk going into 2024 looks like it will be geopolitics. Traditional relationships and alliances are breaking down, and a more polarized world has given way to structural market risk. It can also be hard to plan for such wildcards, though broad hedging and defensive plays could play a key part in investing strategy for the new year.
Snapshot: One such risk is already on full display, with Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen conducting repeated drone and missile attacks on commercial vessels traversing the Red Sea. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a crucial shipping passage that facilitates a sixth of world trade and is important to global seaborne commodity shipments like crude oil. Insurance premiums have risen as a result, and have even prompted the world's biggest container shipping lines to avoid the Suez Canal by diverting their cargoes toward the circuitous route around Africa. Among them are Swiss-based MSC and French CMA CGM, as well as Danish A.P. Moller-Maersk (OTCPK:AMKBY), German Hapag-Lloyd (OTCPK:HPGLY) and Hong Kong-based OOCL (OTCPK:OROVY), whose stocks have climbed 8%-17% over the past week amid rising prices.
The Houthis had originally said they would target Israeli-linked ships to show solidarity with Hamas, but that has since extended to all ships en route to Israel, and the assaults have even continued against other ships regardless of their destination. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Israel on Monday to discuss the latest developments and will travel to Bahrain and Qatar this week to follow up on the talks. It comes as American troops in Iraq and Syria have been targeted by Iranian-backed proxies over 90 times since mid-October, and as the U.S. enters the coming year with its smallest military force since 1940 (active-duty troops will drop to 1,284,500).
What's on the table? American ships like the USS Carney and fellow destroyer USS Mason have been neutralizing threats in the Red Sea since the start of the Hamas-Israel war, but a larger force is now needed. The new plan appears to be an expansion of Combined Task Force 153 into a broader maritime alliance that will initially be called Operation Prosperity Guardian. The Pentagon is also deliberating whether to directly strike Houthi military targets in Yemen to protect maritime security, though until now there have been fears of potentially fueling a broader conflict against Iran and its proxies. Take the WSB survey.
Only ZEVs
Canada is moving ahead with its electrification plans, with new rules expected to be issued tomorrow requiring all new passenger cars sold in the country to be zero emissions by 2035. The regulations are aimed at shortening wait times for EVs and ensuring enough affordable zero-emission vehicles are available to meet the demand. Canada wants ZEVs to represent 20% of all new car sales in 2026, 60% in 2030 and 100% in 2035. Brian Kingston, CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association that represents Ford (F), Stellantis (STLA) and GM (GM), said stronger incentives are needed to make ZEVs more affordable, instead of a mandate on "what Canadians can and cannot buy." (11 comments)
Soft landing
Economists may have what to celebrate as inflation is projected to near the Fed's 2% target next year without a recession or a surge in unemployment, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Inflation is expected to fall to 2.1% in 2024, reflecting softer labor markets and slower increases in rents, but will tick up to 2.2% in 2025. The CBO also expects real GDP growth to slow to 1.5% in 2024 amid a slowdown in consumption, investment, and exports. SA Investing Group Leader Lawrence Fuller said traders should be wary of the overly optimistic bullish sentiment even though a soft landing is near, while Mott Capital Management believes the Fed showed its cards too soon. (4 comments)
Today's Economic Calendar
10:00 Housing Market Index
- IPOs 2024: Watch for Fanatics, Reddit, Shein, and more.
- Chuck E. Cheese exploring sale, may be worth over $1B.
- Apple (AAPL) facing expansion of China iPhone ban.
- Scandinavian investors join Tesla (TSLA) labor fight.
- Elon Musk: Don't shun fossil fuels amid green transition.
- KKR buys $7.2B RV loan portfolio from BMO Financial.
- Fashion executives see upcoming uncertainty for the industry.
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock outlook: What to expect next year.
- Alex Rodriguez's SPAC Slam to merge with Lynk Global.
- Redfin: U.S. housing market to shift in buyers’ favor in 2024.