Major wave A of the bear market is
over (bottomed in Nov) and we are now in Major wave B of the bear
market that could retrace 38% to 50% of Major wave A; this would
take the SPX possibly to a target of 1060 = 1150! However
then a devastating wave C decline will begin.
Also 60 period stochastics could
make it up to about 50% ultimately as well as RSI to 50%.
This 60 period stochastics is a useful indicator on 15 min charts,
weekly and daily charts. One thing to note is that the 60%
stochastics is sill below 20%!
If the SPX manages to retrace about
50% of major wave A and the 60 period stochastics gets back to near
50%, it will be a screaming swing trade. Notice how the 50%
level on the weekly chart is 'key' to the 60 period stochastics;
i.e. in bull markets the 50% level is support, but in bear markets
it is resistance.
Next here's a
daily chart of the SPX from the last bear
market. Another target to the upside could be the 200 day
EMA. Also notice how once again the 60% stochastics was very
useful at this time as well; a sell signal would be generated by
the daily 60 period stochastics getting above 80% and then the sell
trigger would be a cross back below 80% - again this is for the
daily chart.
However please realize that even if
the SPX made it up that high, it will not be straight up, it would
likely take several months and would be choppy and of course the
38% retracement would be the first major target and it's possible
that that's all we get, too early to say.
Also very important that if per
chance the SPX and general market managed to retrace about 50% of
major wave A, realize that psychologically it would feel very good
up there and all the pundents on TV would be bullish etc, but you
have to go against the grain. I think you could enter swing
trader shorts and then just turn off the computer for a while and
go on vacation
However please realize that even if the SPX made it up that
high, it will not be straight up, it would likely take several
months and would be choppy and of course the 38% retracement would
be the first major target and it's possible that that's all we get,
too early to say.
Also very important that if per chance the SPX and general
market managed to retrace about 50% of major wave A, realize that
psychologically it would feel very good up there and all the
pundents on TV would be bullish etc, but you have to go against the
grain. I think you could enter swing trader shorts and then
just turn off the computer for a while and go on vacation
I see your working hard tonight ... My COLTS just go beat so
online checking stuff out. Did you get a chance to review and
comment on my STLD post from yesterday?
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About This Market Counter Trend Rally
Posted by matt on 3rd of Jan 2009 at 11:42 pm
Major wave A of the bear market is over (bottomed in Nov) and we are now in Major wave B of the bear market that could retrace 38% to 50% of Major wave A; this would take the SPX possibly to a target of 1060 = 1150! However then a devastating wave C decline will begin.
Also 60 period stochastics could make it up to about 50% ultimately as well as RSI to 50%. This 60 period stochastics is a useful indicator on 15 min charts, weekly and daily charts. One thing to note is that the 60% stochastics is sill below 20%!
If the SPX manages to retrace about 50% of major wave A and the 60 period stochastics gets back to near 50%, it will be a screaming swing trade. Notice how the 50% level on the weekly chart is 'key' to the 60 period stochastics; i.e. in bull markets the 50% level is support, but in bear markets it is resistance.
Here's a chart - weekly SPX chart with 60 period stochastic and 34 period RSI
Next here's a daily chart of the SPX from the last bear market . Another target to the upside could be the 200 day EMA. Also notice how once again the 60% stochastics was very useful at this time as well; a sell signal would be generated by the daily 60 period stochastics getting above 80% and then the sell trigger would be a cross back below 80% - again this is for the daily chart.
However please realize that even if the SPX made it up that high, it will not be straight up, it would likely take several months and would be choppy and of course the 38% retracement would be the first major target and it's possible that that's all we get, too early to say.
Also very important that if per chance the SPX and general market managed to retrace about 50% of major wave A, realize that psychologically it would feel very good up there and all the pundents on TV would be bullish etc, but you have to go against the grain. I think you could enter swing trader shorts and then just turn off the computer for a while and go on vacation
Again, thank you for your
Posted by yam6353 on 5th of Jan 2009 at 10:56 am
Again, thank you for your short and long term opinion on the market.
However please realize that even
Posted by matt on 4th of Jan 2009 at 12:30 am
However please realize that even if the SPX made it up that high, it will not be straight up, it would likely take several months and would be choppy and of course the 38% retracement would be the first major target and it's possible that that's all we get, too early to say.
Also very important that if per chance the SPX and general market managed to retrace about 50% of major wave A, realize that psychologically it would feel very good up there and all the pundents on TV would be bullish etc, but you have to go against the grain. I think you could enter swing trader shorts and then just turn off the computer for a while and go on vacation
Thanks Matt: Also the PnF chart
Posted by brophy on 4th of Jan 2009 at 01:30 pm
Thanks Matt:
Also the PnF chart is an easy way to see the target...it's about where you have it.
cool, yes I agree, thx
Posted by matt on 4th of Jan 2009 at 03:19 pm
cool, yes I agree, thx for the mention :)
Matt, I see your working hard
Posted by cspirit on 4th of Jan 2009 at 12:35 am
Matt,
I see your working hard tonight ... My COLTS just go beat so online checking stuff out. Did you get a chance to review and comment on my STLD post from yesterday?