Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 08:50 am
The House Freedom Caucus has lots of power over McCarthy, so the
most likely resolution that avoids a crisis is for the adults in
the Senate (Rs and Ds alike) to negotiate a deal. That seems pretty
likely, given Senate Rs don't have an HFC-like wing holding
everything up and that many Senators are playing the long game
(decades in office and/or a presidential run). It is worth noting
that even after a successful albeit dramatic debt limit increase in
2011, our credit rating decreased, and SPY dropped 6.5% the next
trading day
The implication being that either way (debt ceiling increase OR
default) the SPY is likely to drop...and positions in the inverse
ETFs (SDS, SH, SPXU, SSO or UPRO) would do well? Of course timing
is everything.
The House Freedom Caucus has
Excellent newsletter, Steve. Easy to follow commentary. I'm wondering if ...
Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 08:50 am
The House Freedom Caucus has lots of power over McCarthy, so the most likely resolution that avoids a crisis is for the adults in the Senate (Rs and Ds alike) to negotiate a deal. That seems pretty likely, given Senate Rs don't have an HFC-like wing holding everything up and that many Senators are playing the long game (decades in office and/or a presidential run). It is worth noting that even after a successful albeit dramatic debt limit increase in 2011, our credit rating decreased, and SPY dropped 6.5% the next trading day
The implication being that either
Posted by RichieD on 1st of May 2023 at 09:54 am
The implication being that either way (debt ceiling increase OR default) the SPY is likely to drop...and positions in the inverse ETFs (SDS, SH, SPXU, SSO or UPRO) would do well? Of course timing is everything.
That is the conclusion I
Posted by jackbnimble on 1st of May 2023 at 10:39 am
That is the conclusion I am seeing. It might at least be a good year to follow "Sell in May and go away"