Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:34 pm
Market is overvalued on just about every fundamental metric. The
only reason to buy it are the technicals, which currently tell a
more bullish story (watch Ciovacco on YouTube for endless bullish,
technically based rhetoric) . Normally, that would get me more
interested, but in this case, I think the best we can hope for is
sideways to slightly up for the rest of the year....which means
cash is more attractive with a 4+% yield. If the market had free
will, it would sell off in order to force a Fed pause. Instead, it
is being levitated by misguided Gov spending and bailouts, which
will force the Fed to stay the course longer than almost anyone
expected.
Posted by mastermind on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:55 pm
I do think that you are ignoring sentiment, which is still
pretty negative, or cautious at best, amongst the general public.
But what I really don't get is the strength in housing related
stocks in the face of news about slowdowns in residential
construction. Homebuilders are all rocking today, but I was happy
to sell GRBK at my target of 36.64.
Market is overvalued on just
SPX 30 Updated View
Posted by DigiNomad on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:34 pm
Market is overvalued on just about every fundamental metric. The only reason to buy it are the technicals, which currently tell a more bullish story (watch Ciovacco on YouTube for endless bullish, technically based rhetoric) . Normally, that would get me more interested, but in this case, I think the best we can hope for is sideways to slightly up for the rest of the year....which means cash is more attractive with a 4+% yield. If the market had free will, it would sell off in order to force a Fed pause. Instead, it is being levitated by misguided Gov spending and bailouts, which will force the Fed to stay the course longer than almost anyone expected.
I do think that you
Posted by mastermind on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:55 pm
I do think that you are ignoring sentiment, which is still pretty negative, or cautious at best, amongst the general public. But what I really don't get is the strength in housing related stocks in the face of news about slowdowns in residential construction. Homebuilders are all rocking today, but I was happy to sell GRBK at my target of 36.64.
reason is supply and demand
Posted by RP on 18th of Apr 2023 at 03:07 pm
reason is supply and demand no inventory and 30 year mortgage rates dropped as well
Very good analysis of the
Posted by rbreese on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:36 pm
Very good analysis of the market. After OPEX expire we likely get a a few days of digestion.
I think the market comes
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:37 pm
I think the market comes in after VIX expiration so will be deploying such hedges
Steve, when is Vix expiration?
Posted by DK on 18th of Apr 2023 at 01:44 pm
Steve, when is Vix expiration?
Wednesday is VIX Expiration For
Posted by steve on 18th of Apr 2023 at 02:42 pm
Wednesday is VIX Expiration For Those Asking