Posted by kevindeng0727 on 10th of Jan 2023 at 09:53 pm
Service Inflation (labor shortage as you mentioned) and rental
prices will be key. Histrically the turn in rental prices lag the
resale housing prices by ~6months I believe
Posted by fredsaid on 10th of Jan 2023 at 10:11 pm
If Svc inflation and rental prices are the key (to marking a
bottom of tightening) then my guess is we are at a minimum of 9
months away from that. I think this may be what is going to
surprise people - the length and time it takes for this bubble to
unwind ... like could you imagine a year of CHOP ? Just keep
selling 4300 and 3600 contracts a few weeks out. One thing
is for sure...the yield curve and markets have never seen anything
like this in our lifetimes and so we're probably about to see the
market do something unexpected. What is the tightest 12
month range ever ?
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 10th of Jan 2023 at 11:23 pm
housing (rental) is 1/3 of CPI if I my memory is correct. Svc
inflation not sure how much weight - but US (and all other
developed countries) are virtually service economies.
CHOP is my base case for 2023 actually haha. 4100-4200 on upside
and 3300-3400ish downside. I am feeling that this opinion might be
getting a bit too popular though, especially all the big sell side
firms pointing to ugly H1 and rebounding H2.
Tudor Jones by the way, seeing the market 7-8% higher this year
(meaning closing at 4150ish) because of buybacks and cash on the
sideline, IF THE FED DOES NOT BREAK THE ECONOMY. I shared a link of
his interview earlier today.
One other factor keeping me from getting too bearish is this is
a pre-election year.
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Service Inflation (labor shortage as
Based on what i've seen, there is no doubt in ...
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 10th of Jan 2023 at 09:53 pm
Service Inflation (labor shortage as you mentioned) and rental prices will be key. Histrically the turn in rental prices lag the resale housing prices by ~6months I believe
If Svc inflation and rental
Posted by fredsaid on 10th of Jan 2023 at 10:11 pm
If Svc inflation and rental prices are the key (to marking a bottom of tightening) then my guess is we are at a minimum of 9 months away from that. I think this may be what is going to surprise people - the length and time it takes for this bubble to unwind ... like could you imagine a year of CHOP ? Just keep selling 4300 and 3600 contracts a few weeks out. One thing is for sure...the yield curve and markets have never seen anything like this in our lifetimes and so we're probably about to see the market do something unexpected. What is the tightest 12 month range ever ?
housing (rental) is 1/3 of
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 10th of Jan 2023 at 11:23 pm
housing (rental) is 1/3 of CPI if I my memory is correct. Svc inflation not sure how much weight - but US (and all other developed countries) are virtually service economies.
CHOP is my base case for 2023 actually haha. 4100-4200 on upside and 3300-3400ish downside. I am feeling that this opinion might be getting a bit too popular though, especially all the big sell side firms pointing to ugly H1 and rebounding H2.
Tudor Jones by the way, seeing the market 7-8% higher this year (meaning closing at 4150ish) because of buybacks and cash on the sideline, IF THE FED DOES NOT BREAK THE ECONOMY. I shared a link of his interview earlier today.
One other factor keeping me from getting too bearish is this is a pre-election year.