I still think price will probably make it to that open gap over
time, however we've been in the the trade for 33 and 22 days
respectively and held it 2 weeks longer than the system, and have a
far better exit than where the system did.
also guys, for the 1st entry - for SPY the profit made I
accounted for the $1.781 dividend, so in case you are confused by
that profit calculation - it includes the dividend
Matt, RSI 40 was a good trade. Now it looks like it exited too
early. Your systems generally have very good exit points exiting
within a day or two from an actual reversal.
Most likely 4000 on SPX is going to be close to a reversal
under the lower high scenario. Out of curiosity, was a trending
component (to hold a long for a trending move) not included in the
RSI 40 system or it was not triggered?
RSI 40 looks like a mid-level buy which could give a fairly long
trade if measured in SPX points. It is a buy of a higher low into a
strong overbought condition or a 3-wave move up (if executed
manually).
The RSI 40 trades was one of my earliest sub systems, I recently
added a couple of additional exit filters in order to get it more
exit opportunities and less prone at getting tapped - I'm more risk
averse than worrying about missing out on additional moves - so I
always lean to conditions that give less risk, have more of a
chance to exit, and have higher winning percentages and profit
factors, or settings that could catch longer trades but carry more
risk exposure and less winning %
that said I may go back and look at some trending filters that I
use for other systems - again you have to realize, TIME, TIME is
the enemy, trying to keep up on all this stuff, communicate it,
newsletters, posts, family - everyone wants everything but I do
what I can
I don't focus on squeezing every last drop of blood out of
trades - obviously I try to get what I can, but my focus is on
reducing risk, higher winning percentage, less draw down, vs system
trades that can catch longer trades but also that carry larger draw
down potential as well - and with reversion to mean like systems -
I like to use multiple different indicators for exit opportunities,
in case the the main indicator happened to just barely miss the
exit conditions
also, since I give all trades out to all 22 systems - there's a
lot of system trades, there were 130 system trades last year!
There's enough systems always doing something that I need to
need to try and squeeze every last drop out of one particular
system
Thank you for your hard work, Matt! These systems are never
going to be perfect and will always miss something.
If I were to devise a trending indicator, I would use a momentum
in notes as my leading indicator, and a duration and a range of the
consolidation from which the prior move resulted as my input
factors to calculate stored energy from prior squeeze.
Sometimes these correlations are broken, and yet sometimes
they work well. Based on the work of John Carter, a squeeze
lasts between 8 to 10 bars on the time frame on which the chart is
viewed, FWIW.
also if we had only 1 system -then yeah you want to try and get
it to capture as much of a move as possible - but when you have 22
systems, almost always one of them is doing something, you don't
need to worry about capturing the whole move on one system
SPY and ES systems closing out the SPY bear long
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 11:31 am
I still think price will probably make it to that open gap over time, however we've been in the the trade for 33 and 22 days respectively and held it 2 weeks longer than the system, and have a far better exit than where the system did.
also guys, for the 1st entry - for SPY the profit made I accounted for the $1.781 dividend, so in case you are confused by that profit calculation - it includes the dividend
Matt, RSI 40 was a
Posted by junkie on 9th of Jan 2023 at 12:09 pm
Matt, RSI 40 was a good trade. Now it looks like it exited too early. Your systems generally have very good exit points exiting within a day or two from an actual reversal.
Most likely 4000 on SPX is going to be close to a reversal under the lower high scenario. Out of curiosity, was a trending component (to hold a long for a trending move) not included in the RSI 40 system or it was not triggered?
RSI 40 looks like a mid-level buy which could give a fairly long trade if measured in SPX points. It is a buy of a higher low into a strong overbought condition or a 3-wave move up (if executed manually).
The RSI 40 trades was
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 12:27 pm
The RSI 40 trades was one of my earliest sub systems, I recently added a couple of additional exit filters in order to get it more exit opportunities and less prone at getting tapped - I'm more risk averse than worrying about missing out on additional moves - so I always lean to conditions that give less risk, have more of a chance to exit, and have higher winning percentages and profit factors, or settings that could catch longer trades but carry more risk exposure and less winning %
that said I may go back and look at some trending filters that I use for other systems - again you have to realize, TIME, TIME is the enemy, trying to keep up on all this stuff, communicate it, newsletters, posts, family - everyone wants everything but I do what I can
Thanks for the hard work
Posted by iaranger on 9th of Jan 2023 at 12:34 pm
Thanks for the hard work Matt
I don't focus on squeezing
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 12:34 pm
I don't focus on squeezing every last drop of blood out of trades - obviously I try to get what I can, but my focus is on reducing risk, higher winning percentage, less draw down, vs system trades that can catch longer trades but also that carry larger draw down potential as well - and with reversion to mean like systems - I like to use multiple different indicators for exit opportunities, in case the the main indicator happened to just barely miss the exit conditions
also, since I give all trades out to all 22 systems - there's a lot of system trades, there were 130 system trades last year! There's enough systems always doing something that I need to need to try and squeeze every last drop out of one particular system
Thank you for your hard
Posted by junkie on 9th of Jan 2023 at 02:08 pm
Thank you for your hard work, Matt! These systems are never going to be perfect and will always miss something.
If I were to devise a trending indicator, I would use a momentum in notes as my leading indicator, and a duration and a range of the consolidation from which the prior move resulted as my input factors to calculate stored energy from prior squeeze. Sometimes these correlations are broken, and yet sometimes they work well. Based on the work of John Carter, a squeeze lasts between 8 to 10 bars on the time frame on which the chart is viewed, FWIW.
also if we had only
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 12:36 pm
also if we had only 1 system -then yeah you want to try and get it to capture as much of a move as possible - but when you have 22 systems, almost always one of them is doing something, you don't need to worry about capturing the whole move on one system
Book'em Dano
Posted by steve on 9th of Jan 2023 at 11:38 am
Book'em Dano
hell yeah baby! again when I
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 11:41 am
hell yeah baby!
again when I hold trades outside of the systems, it's not always the best call, but in this case it worked out
SPY bear long exited on Dec 22nd, it's Jan 9th so I had it 18 days longer than the system and got better prices
I guess it wasn't a
Posted by matt on 9th of Jan 2023 at 02:25 pm
I guess it wasn't a bad idea to bring Danno out earlier when the market was at the highs
I think I nearly top ticked that intra day on the SPY bear long close out.