SPX With peak bearishness yesterday, I have to keep an open mind
that this rally could extend 5-10% pretty easily from yesterday's
close into January 2023. It sure is possible and would be hated all
the way up given the current backdrop. Some of those readings
indicated many got short in the hole. Usually the pain is greatest
just about when the pain is going to end for a bit. So 4,000 up to
4,150 goes back on the table now, which would fill some gaps on the
upside. That gap at 3,995 would be interesting to fill.
On the downside we have gaps at 3,783.22 from yesterday's close,
3,748.53, and also 3,583.07 longer term. Timing is always the fun
part.
I'll give another recent example about when panic is highest,
the worst is usually about over. It happens when things are
positive as well, sentiment extends too far and when elation of an
outcome occurs, it is often time to be skeptical of a possible
retreat in prices.
The most recent example came here recently with the cold, which
took down some major parts of the county water system for a few
days, so a lot of homes where we live had limited pressure or no
water. The panic set in and water prices in stores doubled. I was
at Sam's Club and just days ago the same water was half the price.
Pretty incredible how things are real time these days with prices.
So they sold all the water out even at those prices and even the
more expensive water was purchased. That night, the water pressure
was restored. Go figure. Same happened during the coronavirus with
markets. ..about time the panic happened, the worst was over. The
extreme end of the world scenearios never happened, though it sure
seemed possible at the time.
I believe the answer will be the same in the coming year for
markets as I previously wrote about. There will be opportunities on
both sides of the trade, though the catostrophic stuff just isn't
likely. The voices will be loud on both sides when rallies and
declines happen, it will be important to keep things in perspective
and take advantage of those times once again. A lot of trash gets
talked when a team is winning, though I keep in mind that I have to
keep doing my job either way, and not be distracted by the noise.
Keep it one day at a time and act on my plan. All I can do is
position to take advantage of the best risk/reward and cash in when
the market allows me to.
Happy New Year everyone!
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SPX With peak bearishness yesterday,
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 29th of Dec 2022 at 10:36 am
SPX With peak bearishness yesterday, I have to keep an open mind that this rally could extend 5-10% pretty easily from yesterday's close into January 2023. It sure is possible and would be hated all the way up given the current backdrop. Some of those readings indicated many got short in the hole. Usually the pain is greatest just about when the pain is going to end for a bit. So 4,000 up to 4,150 goes back on the table now, which would fill some gaps on the upside. That gap at 3,995 would be interesting to fill.
On the downside we have gaps at 3,783.22 from yesterday's close, 3,748.53, and also 3,583.07 longer term. Timing is always the fun part.
I'll give another recent example about when panic is highest, the worst is usually about over. It happens when things are positive as well, sentiment extends too far and when elation of an outcome occurs, it is often time to be skeptical of a possible retreat in prices.
The most recent example came here recently with the cold, which took down some major parts of the county water system for a few days, so a lot of homes where we live had limited pressure or no water. The panic set in and water prices in stores doubled. I was at Sam's Club and just days ago the same water was half the price. Pretty incredible how things are real time these days with prices. So they sold all the water out even at those prices and even the more expensive water was purchased. That night, the water pressure was restored. Go figure. Same happened during the coronavirus with markets. ..about time the panic happened, the worst was over. The extreme end of the world scenearios never happened, though it sure seemed possible at the time.
I believe the answer will be the same in the coming year for markets as I previously wrote about. There will be opportunities on both sides of the trade, though the catostrophic stuff just isn't likely. The voices will be loud on both sides when rallies and declines happen, it will be important to keep things in perspective and take advantage of those times once again. A lot of trash gets talked when a team is winning, though I keep in mind that I have to keep doing my job either way, and not be distracted by the noise. Keep it one day at a time and act on my plan. All I can do is position to take advantage of the best risk/reward and cash in when the market allows me to.
Happy New Year everyone!