There will be opportunities throughout the year for both sides
(bull and bear), similar to this year. Though the difference will
be, once the market makes a new low, that may in fact be it (it
won't stay down), and a new bull market could be born. It isn't
impossible for a bear market to last longer, it just isn't likely,
without some other major event(s) taking place. With the
current backdrop, we have one more down move. The gaps at 3,748 and
3,583 need filled minimum on SPX.
I definitely want to take advantage of retesting the lows or
lower. I have two scenarios, one retests the 9 year moving average
or undercuts it some as it normally does before recovering
(3,000-3,200s) This is the more bearish view. The other scenario is
more flat and taking out recent lows a bit with support holding
around 3,300-3,400 (3,380 was a precovid level I believe). In any
case, I'll simply watch my chosen indicators and be buying for a
longer term swing trade and/or investment.
My last sells for S&P 500 inventory were at 4,800, 4,600,
and 4,300. When I buy those lower areas into extremes, I look to
sell it back when it is higher at extremes into the long term major
moving average at overbought conditions. The 4,600 and 4,300 sales
are from this year. 4,800 sales were in 2021. A lot of that
inventory was from corona crash buying, which I still carry about
1/3 left long from that timeframe. I did buy this year on the 3,500
reversal as well, other major lows, and did a lot of trading on
both sides in a reversion to mean fashion.
I think the volatility in that regard will be ending for a bit
after things get washed out this year though. All that being said,
I have my plan, just at the end of the day, acting on what the
market gives me. It helps when I document my plans, then I can act
when the time comes. My wife and I will be doing one of our regular
investment plan check ups over the holidays. No stress, take action
accordingly after that and wait.
Fundamentals I always appreciate your comments thanks so much
for sharing your plans past present and going forward.
In
the past you’ve mentioned that you like to build positions in
ETFs rather than individual names is that still the case with
few exceptions of course-when you mention unloading inventory
from the Covid Lows are those ETFs you held longer-term
?
Yes, I only buy/sell etfs and low cost mutual funds. And I only
own a handful of items maximum at any time. We own one individual
stock right now, Disney, just because my wife wants to own some,
and I've established it using profits from other trades (a paid for
position). When accumulating, I buy on significant weakness into
support and sell into long term resistances, same
discipline.
I run two strategies for us, a trading strategy (days, weeks
maximum) and a longer term (I call it swing investing strategy)
months to year(s).
The trading strategy is the reversion to mean stuff (SPX and
sectors). I will sometimes hold some if my etf is trending well
depending on where markets are. XLP was a good example of that over
this last year, caught a few major moves on that one. I love a good
discount on Consumer staples and have for years. I've done it with
SPX too and others.
The longer term strategy is where I am buying extreme weakness
and only selling into extreme strength. A great recent example of
that was when we had the June/July weakness this year into the SPX
3,6-3,700s (buying time), then rallied into the 200 day moving
average in the 4,300s (selling time). Another example was buying
off that 3,500 reversal in October. I posted that positioning here
on the trading community in real time as I acted on my wife and I's
plan on both occasions and others.
I enjoy writing and interacting with others who are endeavoring
to build their wealth. I've considered a website to document my
life and investing experiences in real time. The cool thing about
being semi retired is I wouldn't have to do it at the pace I was
doing things before. The part I'm having to consider though is
being able to manage my involvement with it. I am a very committed
person and because I love others, sometimes that means I'll forget
to take care of myself. I'm grateful for that quality, though I
have to work at it to keep more balanced in my efforts. Happy New
Year, I appreciate you!
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SPX (My plan for 2023): There
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 25th of Dec 2022 at 09:32 am
SPX (My plan for 2023):
There will be opportunities throughout the year for both sides (bull and bear), similar to this year. Though the difference will be, once the market makes a new low, that may in fact be it (it won't stay down), and a new bull market could be born. It isn't impossible for a bear market to last longer, it just isn't likely, without some other major event(s) taking place. With the current backdrop, we have one more down move. The gaps at 3,748 and 3,583 need filled minimum on SPX.
I definitely want to take advantage of retesting the lows or lower. I have two scenarios, one retests the 9 year moving average or undercuts it some as it normally does before recovering (3,000-3,200s) This is the more bearish view. The other scenario is more flat and taking out recent lows a bit with support holding around 3,300-3,400 (3,380 was a precovid level I believe). In any case, I'll simply watch my chosen indicators and be buying for a longer term swing trade and/or investment.
My last sells for S&P 500 inventory were at 4,800, 4,600, and 4,300. When I buy those lower areas into extremes, I look to sell it back when it is higher at extremes into the long term major moving average at overbought conditions. The 4,600 and 4,300 sales are from this year. 4,800 sales were in 2021. A lot of that inventory was from corona crash buying, which I still carry about 1/3 left long from that timeframe. I did buy this year on the 3,500 reversal as well, other major lows, and did a lot of trading on both sides in a reversion to mean fashion.
I think the volatility in that regard will be ending for a bit after things get washed out this year though. All that being said, I have my plan, just at the end of the day, acting on what the market gives me. It helps when I document my plans, then I can act when the time comes. My wife and I will be doing one of our regular investment plan check ups over the holidays. No stress, take action accordingly after that and wait.
Merry Christmas to all, I appreciate you!
Fundamentals I always appreciate your
Posted by watcdy on 25th of Dec 2022 at 01:46 pm
Fundamentals I always appreciate your comments thanks so much for sharing your plans past present and going forward. In the past you’ve mentioned that you like to build positions in ETFs rather than individual names is that still the case with few exceptions of course-when you mention unloading inventory from the Covid Lows are those ETFs you held longer-term ?
Yes, I only buy/sell etfs
Posted by fundamentalvalues on 26th of Dec 2022 at 09:08 am
Yes, I only buy/sell etfs and low cost mutual funds. And I only own a handful of items maximum at any time. We own one individual stock right now, Disney, just because my wife wants to own some, and I've established it using profits from other trades (a paid for position). When accumulating, I buy on significant weakness into support and sell into long term resistances, same discipline.
I run two strategies for us, a trading strategy (days, weeks maximum) and a longer term (I call it swing investing strategy) months to year(s).
The trading strategy is the reversion to mean stuff (SPX and sectors). I will sometimes hold some if my etf is trending well depending on where markets are. XLP was a good example of that over this last year, caught a few major moves on that one. I love a good discount on Consumer staples and have for years. I've done it with SPX too and others.
The longer term strategy is where I am buying extreme weakness and only selling into extreme strength. A great recent example of that was when we had the June/July weakness this year into the SPX 3,6-3,700s (buying time), then rallied into the 200 day moving average in the 4,300s (selling time). Another example was buying off that 3,500 reversal in October. I posted that positioning here on the trading community in real time as I acted on my wife and I's plan on both occasions and others.
I enjoy writing and interacting with others who are endeavoring to build their wealth. I've considered a website to document my life and investing experiences in real time. The cool thing about being semi retired is I wouldn't have to do it at the pace I was doing things before. The part I'm having to consider though is being able to manage my involvement with it. I am a very committed person and because I love others, sometimes that means I'll forget to take care of myself. I'm grateful for that quality, though I have to work at it to keep more balanced in my efforts. Happy New Year, I appreciate you!