nothing marketing actionable here I'm just ranting a bit. On
CNBC they just had another guy talking about how he doesn't see a
recession coming yada yada. I see so much of that how it's
different this time because of this and that.
Listen...one thing I've observed after all these years is that
it's really never different. In the past regarding numerous things,
I've heard people make the case time and time again how, no it's
different this time around.
the Yield Curve has been basically perfect over 50 years
predicting recessions. My pure analytical mind and following
charts, I see that and say it's inevitable. This yield curve
inversion has always worked, why would it not this time, that's the
biggest inversion I've seen. But then so many others come out
and acknowledge the yield curve but then argue how it's different
this time and that a recession won't happen?
again per my point - I've never seen the 'it's different this
time' actually work and play out. I heard that argument in late 99
and early 2000 regarding why the tech bubble would not crash - it's
different this time because of the new economy and internet. I
heard with with the housing market in 2005/6 etc etc
guys the 'it's different this time' never seems to play out
Posted by rollerblader on 6th of Dec 2022 at 11:27 pm
Totally agree. a year or so ago I mentioned to my son in
law whose involved in residential home building that these
bidding wars and home prices going up 20% or more a year were
eventually going to crash as well as the stock market. His answer
was the same,,,'Nahh, times are different, we have 500,000
immigrants a year and a shortage of homes". I told him these prices
were not sustainable. I remember the 1990's housing crash ( here in
Canada). Same sh*t differant year. And look where we are now
headed,,,Low low lower!
Well said Matt. The only thing that may be different this
time is the nature and extent of the recession where all signs
(similar to those you pointed out) are pointing to much worse than
expected, especially if the green back doesn't hold up.
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Yield Curve comments and the 'it's not different this time argument'
Posted by matt on 6th of Dec 2022 at 10:30 am
$UST10Y-$UST2Y - Chart Link-
nothing marketing actionable here I'm just ranting a bit. On CNBC they just had another guy talking about how he doesn't see a recession coming yada yada. I see so much of that how it's different this time because of this and that.
Listen...one thing I've observed after all these years is that it's really never different. In the past regarding numerous things, I've heard people make the case time and time again how, no it's different this time around.
the Yield Curve has been basically perfect over 50 years predicting recessions. My pure analytical mind and following charts, I see that and say it's inevitable. This yield curve inversion has always worked, why would it not this time, that's the biggest inversion I've seen. But then so many others come out and acknowledge the yield curve but then argue how it's different this time and that a recession won't happen?
again per my point - I've never seen the 'it's different this time' actually work and play out. I heard that argument in late 99 and early 2000 regarding why the tech bubble would not crash - it's different this time because of the new economy and internet. I heard with with the housing market in 2005/6 etc etc
guys the 'it's different this time' never seems to play out
Totally agree. a year or
Posted by rollerblader on 6th of Dec 2022 at 11:27 pm
Totally agree. a year or so ago I mentioned to my son in law whose involved in residential home building that these bidding wars and home prices going up 20% or more a year were eventually going to crash as well as the stock market. His answer was the same,,,'Nahh, times are different, we have 500,000 immigrants a year and a shortage of homes". I told him these prices were not sustainable. I remember the 1990's housing crash ( here in Canada). Same sh*t differant year. And look where we are now headed,,,Low low lower!
Well said Matt. The only
Posted by fredsaid on 6th of Dec 2022 at 10:32 am
Well said Matt. The only thing that may be different this time is the nature and extent of the recession where all signs (similar to those you pointed out) are pointing to much worse than expected, especially if the green back doesn't hold up.