- bear long exited on ES yesterday as we know.
- bear long is going to exit today on SPY! So if you want to
follow the system exactly you would exit and lock in a loss for
this trade. Other options would be if you wanted to split the
difference and exit 1/2 and then keep 1/2 with a stop at today's
lows. That said, I'm electing to to exit 1/2 and keep 1/2 since the
market is quite oversold here and bounced off the lows. PCE data
tomorrow
- QE 3.2 no changes here, we locked in 1/2 gains yesterday
-
Going long 1st entry for the Bear Exhaustion for SPY (we'll
take 10K SPY and 1 SPY call option Dec 16th expiration, 352
strike)
ES systems:
- bear long exited on ES yesterday and we did as well
- Bear Exhuastion -we sold 1/2 yesterday no changes here
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:05 pm
No offense, but I hope that you realize how this kind of message
might be confusing to some of the people asking questions about the
system, especially the newbies. 4 systems in play, one exiting. one
entering and two holding, and you unsure whether you are going to
follow the exit signal or not. I know that everybody needs to
decide for themselves, but sometimes in environments like this it's
not so simple to just "follow the system".
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:17 pm
Hey, I think Matt and Steve both do a great job and I know that
I do better when I follow their guidance. I am just pointing out
that at certain times of market confusion, it is not that simple a
matter to follow the system to a T.
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm
Not really. Sell half of the SPY and buy the SPY. Certainly room
for confusion. As for myself, I re-entered the SPY call that I
thankfully sold yesterday, which turned out to be very good move,
and hedged with some SOXS, SRS and TSLQ. Now that I have put on
some short hedges, the market will almost surely rally :-)
Posted by bulf6285 on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:18 pm
I think folks get confused because they think of the multiple
systems as 1 absolute position in the market, or 1 absolute view of
market direction. Think of each individual system as just that.
They are independent of one another with different conditions, etc.
You have to manage each signal separately from the others. Since
they are mechanical in nature, you either have to trust the system
or not. When Matt/Steve say they are going to take half, etc. that
is a judgment call they are making to manage their money as they
see fit. You can do the same. It has no bearing on whether or not
the systems themselves are exiting. When Steve constantly says you
have to trade YOUR PLAN, all he means is that you may feel you made
enough profit or took enough of a loss to exit.
Steve's analogy for that is: get 22 buckets, one for each
system, and each system trade is placing something in one of those
buckets designated to each system. They are each separate and
independent from each other
also - as we saw yesterday people get confused and here about 22
systems and think OMG how can I keep track of all those - when at
this time only a few can be in trades. A good 1/2 or more of the
systems only occur in bull markets (so you can discard them),
others need price above the 200 day MA, you can throw them out.
Bull exhaustion only occurs in bull markets. The short trades you
could also throw out at this moment because they short rallies, not
deep oversold conditions. Exhaustion short throw out totally
because that is a condition where price has been trading above the
8 SMA for like 30 conse bars, it's basically an exhaustion
condition after the market has rallied too far too quickly
bear long, bear exhaust, and QE 3.2 are really the only systems that can be active at
this time
(the other 19 systems cannot be active now)
CCI could become active but only after a divergence forms on the
CCI
but that's it, don't get all overwhelmed by 22 systems - they
can't trigger under these conditions
System signals update
Posted by matt on 29th of Sep 2022 at 03:40 pm
shows the reversion to mean systems in trades;
SPY systems:
- bear long exited on ES yesterday as we know.
- bear long is going to exit today on SPY! So if you want to follow the system exactly you would exit and lock in a loss for this trade. Other options would be if you wanted to split the difference and exit 1/2 and then keep 1/2 with a stop at today's lows. That said, I'm electing to to exit 1/2 and keep 1/2 since the market is quite oversold here and bounced off the lows. PCE data tomorrow
- QE 3.2 no changes here, we locked in 1/2 gains yesterday
- Going long 1st entry for the Bear Exhaustion for SPY (we'll take 10K SPY and 1 SPY call option Dec 16th expiration, 352 strike)
ES systems:
- bear long exited on ES yesterday and we did as well
- Bear Exhuastion -we sold 1/2 yesterday no changes here
No offense, but I hope
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:05 pm
No offense, but I hope that you realize how this kind of message might be confusing to some of the people asking questions about the system, especially the newbies. 4 systems in play, one exiting. one entering and two holding, and you unsure whether you are going to follow the exit signal or not. I know that everybody needs to decide for themselves, but sometimes in environments like this it's not so simple to just "follow the system".
- Going long 1st entry
Posted by matt on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:02 pm
- Going long 1st entry for the Bear Exhaustion for SPY (we'll take 10K SPY and 1 SPY call option Dec 16th expiration, 352 strike)
sold 1/2 bear long, kept half with a stop -
I sent out the email and edited the post below with the details
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/378155/
MATT. THANK YOU. YOU DO
Posted by johnpaw1 on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm
MATT. THANK YOU. YOU DO A GREAT JOB WITH THE SYSTEMS KEEP IT UP
Hey, I think Matt and
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:17 pm
Hey, I think Matt and Steve both do a great job and I know that I do better when I follow their guidance. I am just pointing out that at certain times of market confusion, it is not that simple a matter to follow the system to a T.
Roger that. Simple to follow
Posted by Breakdown on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:07 pm
Roger that. Simple to follow now.
Not really. Sell half of
Posted by mastermind on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:13 pm
Not really. Sell half of the SPY and buy the SPY. Certainly room for confusion. As for myself, I re-entered the SPY call that I thankfully sold yesterday, which turned out to be very good move, and hedged with some SOXS, SRS and TSLQ. Now that I have put on some short hedges, the market will almost surely rally :-)
I think folks get confused
Posted by bulf6285 on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:18 pm
I think folks get confused because they think of the multiple systems as 1 absolute position in the market, or 1 absolute view of market direction. Think of each individual system as just that. They are independent of one another with different conditions, etc. You have to manage each signal separately from the others. Since they are mechanical in nature, you either have to trust the system or not. When Matt/Steve say they are going to take half, etc. that is a judgment call they are making to manage their money as they see fit. You can do the same. It has no bearing on whether or not the systems themselves are exiting. When Steve constantly says you have to trade YOUR PLAN, all he means is that you may feel you made enough profit or took enough of a loss to exit.
Steve's analogy for that is:
Posted by matt on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:58 pm
Steve's analogy for that is: get 22 buckets, one for each system, and each system trade is placing something in one of those buckets designated to each system. They are each separate and independent from each other
also - as we saw yesterday people get confused and here about 22 systems and think OMG how can I keep track of all those - when at this time only a few can be in trades. A good 1/2 or more of the systems only occur in bull markets (so you can discard them), others need price above the 200 day MA, you can throw them out. Bull exhaustion only occurs in bull markets. The short trades you could also throw out at this moment because they short rallies, not deep oversold conditions. Exhaustion short throw out totally because that is a condition where price has been trading above the 8 SMA for like 30 conse bars, it's basically an exhaustion condition after the market has rallied too far too quickly
bear long, bear exhaust, and QE 3.2 are really the only systems that can be active at this time (the other 19 systems cannot be active now)
CCI could become active but only after a divergence forms on the CCI
but that's it, don't get all overwhelmed by 22 systems - they can't trigger under these conditions
Good synopsis - also when
Posted by steve on 29th of Sep 2022 at 05:01 pm
Good synopsis - also when the bucket is being used put in behind a door and close the door UNTIL notified regarding that SPECIFIC BUCKET
These entries, although in the
Posted by Breakdown on 29th of Sep 2022 at 04:17 pm
These entries, although in the same subsystem, are done on different days and will therefore have different prices. I learned this the hard way.