by the way the system isn't looking to cover/close out here, I'm
guessing the trending momo indicator is red and so it's looking to
hold. I will investigate when I have time and confirm that.
that said the minimum goal has been achieved with a sharp
reversion back to the mean and thus even if the system holds today
I will likely elect to cover 1/2 of it just to be safe.
again as posted earlier a good way to think about the systems
(except for the breakout) is that they look for periods where the
market is out of bands, where the rubber band is too stretched and
prone to a reversion back to the mean. Most of the time they exit
on that reversion to the mean, but will hold on occasion for
trending moves if other indicators align, kind of like that bear
long which lasted 5 weeks from July 13th to Aug 22
Good morning everyone, as you know
the market reversed sharply on the hot CPI data. ES S&P futures
were up 30 points pre market but then reversed 120 points on that
CPI data. Currently SPX cash is down 90 points!!!
The systems caught a very timely
short yesterday! See the chart below! A good way to
think about the systems (except for the breakout) is that they look
for periods where the market is out of bounds, where the rubber
band is too stretched too far and prone to a reversion back to the
mean. Most of the time they exit on that reversion to the mean, but
will hold on occasion for trending moves if other indicators align,
kind of like that bear long which lasted 5 weeks from July 13th to
Aug 22 and a nice trending move was caught.
By the way the system isn't looking
to cover/close out here, I'm guessing the trending momo indicator
is red and so it's looking to hold. I will investigate when I have
time and confirm that. That said the minimum goal has been
achieved with a sharp reversion back to the mean and thus even if
the system holds today I will likely elect to cover 1/2 of it just
to be safe.
Congrats if you took the short
signal yesterday. And while the sub system triggered on ES and not
SPY, remember that even if futures don't fit your risk profile and
are not something that you can trade, you can still follow these
trades signals by simply using one of the SPX related ETF's instead
(SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, SPXU, UPRO). The reason I share systems
trades on both SPY and ES is to give us the most number of trade
opportunities. The 21 systems will catch trades on ES that are not
triggered on SPY - thus we get more trade opportunities this
way.
yet another example of why I give trade signals to both SPY and
ES from the systems. I get this question all the time, I
don't trade ES why don't you only send trade signals for SPY.
This is a perfect example once again: As I've stated dozens of
times, even though SPY and ES are 99% correlated, they have
different prices and the 22 systems will not do the same trade
signals on each, they will have different entries and exits many
times.
Also like we saw this time, the QE 3 did NOT trigger a short on
SPY yesterday but triggered it on ES. If I was only sharing trade
signals for SPY this would have been missed
we also saw this in July where the bear long caught a 5 week
runner on ES but did not catch the same trade on SPY. ES has been
better lately but it will flip and SPY will catch trade signals
that are missed by ES - so it works both ways
Short trade comments
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 09:46 am
by the way the system isn't looking to cover/close out here, I'm guessing the trending momo indicator is red and so it's looking to hold. I will investigate when I have time and confirm that.
that said the minimum goal has been achieved with a sharp reversion back to the mean and thus even if the system holds today I will likely elect to cover 1/2 of it just to be safe.
again as posted earlier a good way to think about the systems (except for the breakout) is that they look for periods where the market is out of bands, where the rubber band is too stretched and prone to a reversion back to the mean. Most of the time they exit on that reversion to the mean, but will hold on occasion for trending moves if other indicators align, kind of like that bear long which lasted 5 weeks from July 13th to Aug 22
FYI I sent out this
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 09:56 am
FYI I sent out this email update on the systems
------------
Good morning everyone, as you know the market reversed sharply on the hot CPI data. ES S&P futures were up 30 points pre market but then reversed 120 points on that CPI data. Currently SPX cash is down 90 points!!!
The systems caught a very timely short yesterday! See the chart below! A good way to think about the systems (except for the breakout) is that they look for periods where the market is out of bounds, where the rubber band is too stretched too far and prone to a reversion back to the mean. Most of the time they exit on that reversion to the mean, but will hold on occasion for trending moves if other indicators align, kind of like that bear long which lasted 5 weeks from July 13th to Aug 22 and a nice trending move was caught.
By the way the system isn't looking to cover/close out here, I'm guessing the trending momo indicator is red and so it's looking to hold. I will investigate when I have time and confirm that. That said the minimum goal has been achieved with a sharp reversion back to the mean and thus even if the system holds today I will likely elect to cover 1/2 of it just to be safe.
Congrats if you took the short signal yesterday. And while the sub system triggered on ES and not SPY, remember that even if futures don't fit your risk profile and are not something that you can trade, you can still follow these trades signals by simply using one of the SPX related ETF's instead (SPY, SH, SSO, SDS, SPXU, UPRO). The reason I share systems trades on both SPY and ES is to give us the most number of trade opportunities. The 21 systems will catch trades on ES that are not triggered on SPY - thus we get more trade opportunities this way.
yet another example of why
Posted by matt on 13th of Sep 2022 at 10:22 am
yet another example of why I give trade signals to both SPY and ES from the systems. I get this question all the time, I don't trade ES why don't you only send trade signals for SPY.
This is a perfect example once again: As I've stated dozens of times, even though SPY and ES are 99% correlated, they have different prices and the 22 systems will not do the same trade signals on each, they will have different entries and exits many times.
Also like we saw this time, the QE 3 did NOT trigger a short on SPY yesterday but triggered it on ES. If I was only sharing trade signals for SPY this would have been missed
we also saw this in July where the bear long caught a 5 week runner on ES but did not catch the same trade on SPY. ES has been better lately but it will flip and SPY will catch trade signals that are missed by ES - so it works both ways
Yes thanks made $$$ on
Posted by srusso1 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 10:03 am
Yes thanks made $$$ on SPXU and holding
Nooo! I forgot to execute
Posted by jared95 on 13th of Sep 2022 at 09:49 am
Nooo! I forgot to execute the trade last night! Guess I'm a arm chair qb for this one!