Why haven't retail investors thrown in the towel as so
many expect before a bear market can end?
My take: Those that sold in 2008 (Fin Crisis) and then
2020 (Covid) probably never went back in. Those that held on were
rewarded handsomely. The Inflation or Ukraine issues are not
nearly as bad as the two I just mentioned. Why would anyone
dump stocks now? I think retail investors are smarter than
people give them credit. My 2 cents worth.
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 14th of Aug 2022 at 02:47 pm
I feel like they thrown in at the low of June... along with some
smart people and hedge funds. SQQQ total outstanding shares were at
historical high.
Personally I don't like overthinking Macro. Remeber in May/June
2020 there were many breath thrust signals and the macro was scary
like hell. Our blog was a bit late to swtich to the new bull market
thesis too on that one. No saying the same thing will happen again,
but if we do take out the recent lows, at least we need lower highs
& lower lows and some impulsive selling first.
Kevin - all that matters for you is your plan. Don't worry
about what others are doing. We have been long for many weeks
all mapped out in advance. In response to your other
comments - first thing would be a channel break and an impulsive
move down followed by a lower high in response to your comments
(topping is a process NOT an event). In the meantime,
continue to trade what's in front of you.
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Why haven't retail investors thrown
Posted by tgo5043 on 14th of Aug 2022 at 12:33 pm
Why haven't retail investors thrown in the towel as so many expect before a bear market can end?
My take: Those that sold in 2008 (Fin Crisis) and then 2020 (Covid) probably never went back in. Those that held on were rewarded handsomely. The Inflation or Ukraine issues are not nearly as bad as the two I just mentioned. Why would anyone dump stocks now? I think retail investors are smarter than people give them credit. My 2 cents worth.
I feel like they thrown
Posted by kevindeng0727 on 14th of Aug 2022 at 02:47 pm
I feel like they thrown in at the low of June... along with some smart people and hedge funds. SQQQ total outstanding shares were at historical high.
Personally I don't like overthinking Macro. Remeber in May/June 2020 there were many breath thrust signals and the macro was scary like hell. Our blog was a bit late to swtich to the new bull market thesis too on that one. No saying the same thing will happen again, but if we do take out the recent lows, at least we need lower highs & lower lows and some impulsive selling first.
Kevin - all that matters
Posted by steve on 14th of Aug 2022 at 03:18 pm
Kevin - all that matters for you is your plan. Don't worry about what others are doing. We have been long for many weeks all mapped out in advance. In response to your other comments - first thing would be a channel break and an impulsive move down followed by a lower high in response to your comments (topping is a process NOT an event). In the meantime, continue to trade what's in front of you.