The slide at 2:20 of the video is the rub. Shows the argument of recession or not and right now nobody knows. I took a look at the yield curve 10/2 chart again and the 1989 inverted curve which was later followed by the 1990 recession. The SPX didn't go lower even though the curve was inverted and the recession happened. In the other cases shown 2000 and 2006, the SPX did have a major decline after the inverted yield curve. We know in the 1970s it went lower as well.  

The 50% fib rally retracements are wildly similar. And that's all anyone can do, look at the past, and see if maybe it can rhyme in comparison to today. I like what he said about this is a "highest odds projection". Also congruent with the information I mentioned above. That's all anyone can do, make a high probability move based on the risk/reward of the situation. It makes the odds that this "bear market" is going to last much higher, particularly noting all of the backdrop challenges that I posted here on Friday which are worth repeating. Here they are again:

If we ignore that earnings were bad, guidance was worse, inflation is worse, 2nd consecutive negative GDP print, 2nd consecutive 75bps hike, double QT starting in a month, China tensions boiling, Russia war continuing, supply chains not improving, oil shortage not improving, oil reserves dropping near record lows, PMI dropping in recession levels, consumer sentiment at record lows, personal savings at 2008 levels, credit card debt at record highs, housing market turning down, multiple yield curves inverted, the dollar at 22 year highs... yes maybe we could believe the bottom is in.

I was thinking, if the market continues higher and this is wrong, there would be plenty of time to make money if trading or investing. It would just take willingness to continue to be flexible in one's view. The approach I've operated from for years in life has been "stay in business first, make money second". Meaning, just don't make a mistake that I can't recover from. There is always another trade/investment if one has the capital to participate. 

The other thing I thought of over the weekend was, am I spending too much time on the "trying to figure out the future"? And not enough time of the "enjoy life" today? Yes, there is a time and place for planning and action on the plan. Though once that is done, it is done. Even if I'm successful and make loads of money, if I didn't enjoy life, or the relationships that are important to me, or relationships are ultimately sacrificed, then I didn't really succeed in accordance with my values. Worth consideration and repeating again and again for me. 

Great video Steve. Thanks !!!!

Thanks Steve, educational as always!