First off we discussed our bias for July being a strong up month
and that trade low in June due to the charts telling us and bullish
seasonality, which has played out well. The time to go long was not
now based on 1 monthly candlestick, but a month ago or 2 weeks ago.
We've been playing this to the long side
Given the economic backdrop I'll continue to count this as a
bear market rally unless evidence changes. We project, monitor, and
adjust to what the market does. If the market changes and evidence
confirms it we will adapt with it as always.
Yes a nice bullish engulfing candle on the monthly (expected due
to seasonality and earnings). Not enough evidence to count end of
bear market from one candle.
otherwise my guess, and I'll discuss on the weekend is still the
same as I've been discussing. Also, here's a monthly chart of the
SPX, long term the 20 month moving average tends to be an important
dividing line in markets. During past bear markets when this MA was
lost, it was re-tested during the first large bear market rally
(2001 and mid 2008), also take note of the 14 length Stochasic.
Maybe we see the same thing this time, and that area is a zone
where the rally will fail lower high and the 14 Stochastic stay
below 50%
clarification - the focus on my post was the 20 month MA, or the
monthly middle Bollinger Band: That middle Bollinger Band or 20
month MA is where I see as a target. The chart also has the 14
Stochastic that has strongly lost the 50% area. I don't see the
bear market rally causing the Stochastic to test the underside of
that 50%, it's too far.
the focus on that post was the 20 month MA
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Could this monthly Bullish engulfing
Posted by mborder1 on 30th of Jul 2022 at 02:20 pm
Could this monthly Bullish engulfing mark the bottom of correction?
First off we discussed our
Posted by matt on 30th of Jul 2022 at 02:40 pm
First off we discussed our bias for July being a strong up month and that trade low in June due to the charts telling us and bullish seasonality, which has played out well. The time to go long was not now based on 1 monthly candlestick, but a month ago or 2 weeks ago. We've been playing this to the long side
Given the economic backdrop I'll continue to count this as a bear market rally unless evidence changes. We project, monitor, and adjust to what the market does. If the market changes and evidence confirms it we will adapt with it as always.
Yes a nice bullish engulfing candle on the monthly (expected due to seasonality and earnings). Not enough evidence to count end of bear market from one candle.
otherwise my guess, and I'll discuss on the weekend is still the same as I've been discussing. Also, here's a monthly chart of the SPX, long term the 20 month moving average tends to be an important dividing line in markets. During past bear markets when this MA was lost, it was re-tested during the first large bear market rally (2001 and mid 2008), also take note of the 14 length Stochasic. Maybe we see the same thing this time, and that area is a zone where the rally will fail lower high and the 14 Stochastic stay below 50%
clarification - the focus on
Posted by matt on 30th of Jul 2022 at 04:52 pm
clarification - the focus on my post was the 20 month MA, or the monthly middle Bollinger Band: That middle Bollinger Band or 20 month MA is where I see as a target. The chart also has the 14 Stochastic that has strongly lost the 50% area. I don't see the bear market rally causing the Stochastic to test the underside of that 50%, it's too far.
the focus on that post was the 20 month MA